Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants MNF Predictions

by | Sep 24, 2022 | nfl

Dallas Cowboys (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. New York Giants (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
When: Monday, September 26th, 8:15 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: ESPN, ABC, ESPN+

Point Spread: Dal +1/NYG -1
Total: 39.5

Takeaways From Week 2

Everyone thought the Dallas Cowboys would be left for dead after not scoring a touchdown in Week 1 vs. TB and Dak Prescott going down. There’s a lesson to be learned here; A team with a good defense is still a competitive team. We should also not judge a book by its cover, as many thought Cooper Rush would flop, which he didn’t. He actually managed the game very well and was very efficient in the Week 2 win vs. the Bengals. Truth be told, maybe Dallas isn’t dead after all. But as with most things betting-related, it takes the market time to react, and that is absolutely what is happening in Week 3 as the Pokes are an unwarranted +1 underdog on MNF vs. a bad 2-0 New York Giants football team. The G-Men’s Week 1 win vs. the Titans was pure luck. They got a lucky bounce or two, and the stars aligned vs. a bad Titans team. They barely beat another bad team in Week 2 (Panthers). So now they’re a favorite over a team that is likely to dominate their offensive line? It doesn’t make a lot of sense!

How the Public is Betting the Dal/NY Game

Betting action is fairly even, with the Cowboys receiving 46% and the Giants 54%. Bettors are hitting the over 39.5 at 56% and the under at 44%.

The Historicals

The Dallas Cowboys have owned this matchup over the last ten meetings to the tune of 9-1, which includes a 4-1 SU record at New York. Dallas has won the last two meetings by 15 and 24 points.

Injury Concerns

Cowboys: LB Micah Parsons missed practice Friday due to illness. QB Dak Prescott is out with a thumb. TE Dalton Schultz looks doubtful as he didn’t practice on Friday. WR Michael Gallup looks to return from injury and would likely be on a snap count. SS Jayron Kearse is questionable, and G Connor McGovern is doubtful. Giants: C John Feliciano has a shin issue and is questionable. This would be big if he misses, as the center is very important to a team’s timing. WR Kadarius Toney has a hamstring issue and didn’t practice Friday. Not practicing on Friday usually means a player is going to miss. S Dane Belton (collarbone) practiced Friday but is listed as questionable. CB Justin Layne has a concussion and didn’t practice Friday. Wan’Dale Robinson has a knee issue, didn’t practice Friday, and looks like he’s going to miss. Other players who are banged up but practiced Friday are LBs Thibodeaux and Ojulari and CB Jason Pinnock. Players who are listed as questionable and did not practice Friday (likely to miss) include CB Nick McCloud, DE Leonard Williams, and CB Aaron Robinson.

Betting Trends

  • Dallas is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
  • The Cowboys have dominated NFC opponents to the tune of 11-3 ATS over their last 14 conference games.
  • Dal is 20-7 ATS over their last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents.
  • The Pokes are 17-7 against the spread over their last 24 games.
  • The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.
  • The Giants are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games.
  • NYG are 1-4 ATS vs. their last 5 NFC East opponents

Weather Report

The weather forecast is perfect, with clear skies and 65 degrees.

Reduced Juice Sportsbook

BAS Sportsbook
BET AT -105
 
 

Why I’m Betting the Cowboys

The Giants haven’t shown me that they can move the ball consistently. The 2022 New York team isn’t much different than the 2021 team. I’m seeing the same poor play and lack of skill position players that we saw last season. There’s a HUGE edge for Dallas here as they’re actually one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, going up against one of the worst offensive lines. How will Daniel Jones be able to do anything when he’s under pressure all game? Micah Parsons is an absolute monster and is very similar to Lawrence Taylor when he was in his prime. New York doesn’t have receivers that separate. This will also make it tough for Jones to get anything done via the air. Kadarius Toney is a nice receiver, but he’s banged up, not likely to play, and is in the coach’s doghouse to boot. Saquon Barkley is a stud, but it’s going to be tough to be successful if your offensive line doesn’t create holes. He had a fat stat line vs. Tennessee, but 68 of his yards came on one run. He only averaged 3.4 yards vs. a poor Panthers team. Most NFL fans don’t pay attention to line play. All we hear about in the news is this QB threw for this many yards, and this running back ran for x-amount of touchdowns. Games are won in the trenches, and this is a HUGE mismatch. I’m not suggesting a blowout by any means, as it is a road game for Dallas, and it’s tough to win on the road anywhere in the NFL, but when you’re watching, keep a close eye on line play. Barring injury, it’s likely that Dallas will win that battle enough times to come out on top at the end and cash our betting tickets.

Kevin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Dallas Cowboys +1 (assuming Micah Parsons plays) Reports as of Saturday were that he was feeling better. If he sits, this is a no-play. I’m banking on him wreaking havoc on the Giants’ crappy offensive line and Daniel Jones all night, which should result in sacks and turnovers as Jones has a tendency of making bad decisions and turning the ball over at a high rate when under pressure.

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