Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Point Spread – Prediction Against the Spread 10/25/2015

Dallas Cowboys (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. New York Giants (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
NFL Week 7
Date/Time: October 25th, 4:25 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium
TV: FOX
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, jhsportsline.com

Point Spread: DALL. +4/ NYG -4
Over/Under Total: 45

The New York Giants will be looking to bounce back against a division rival, after a dismal Monday Night Football performance, when the Dallas Cowboys invade MetLife Stadium in this crucial Week 7 matchup. The Giants jumped out to a 7-0 lead and than proceeded to give up 27 unanswered points in losing 27-7 to the Eagles as 4.5-point road underdogs. New York was outgained 425-247 and failed to take advantage of four turnovers by the Eagles. The Giants are 1-5 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Cowboys are coming off their BYE week and will be looking to end its three-game losing skid. Two Weeks ago, the Patriots took care of business with a 30-6 shellacking of the Cowboys. Dallas was outgained by 92 yards and sit 2-3 ITS this season.

Brandon Weeden has lost 11 straight games in which he has started, so the Cowboys have decided to go with Matt Cassel. And while he’s no Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, Cassel has enjoyed some success in this league. Cassel is 22-12 ATS when playing on the road in his career. The Giants don’t have much of a pass rush right now as they are ranked No. 32 in quarterback sacks (Just Eight in six games). The Cowboys have recorded 11 sacks in five games and that was without Greg Hardy for all but one of those games. Dallas is getting healthier on defense while the Giants’ defense is leaking oil. Division underdogs with the better defense have been “wise guy” plays for decades. Dallas enters this rematch allowing 349 yards per game, while the Giants are allowing 392 yards per contest. New York will enter this game with the higher-rated and more accomplished quarterback. Eli Manning has been on point for much of the season. He has passed for 1,606 yards, 11 touchdowns, while completing 66% of his throws. His quarterback rating is a splendid 94.0. This has helped the Giants rank 14th in yards per game and 14th in points per game.

I would have a lot more confidence in taking the Cowboys had the Giants not looked so pathetic on Monday Night. Teams that lay an egg on Monday night normally bounce back in a big way the following week. Also, the Giants have revenge from an opening week Sunday Night loss at Dallas. The Giants were leading 23-13 with 8:01 left in the game, before the Cowboys rallied late behind Tony Romo and Jason Witten. Dallas won 27-26 as 7-point home chalk while outgaining the Giants 436-289. The public are backing the Cowboys as the line opened at Giants minus six. I don’t normally like backing a team where the majority of the public is on. This could be a game where the ‘sharps” and public are backing the same side.

The Giants are coming off a short week which should help the Cowboys keep this one close. After all, the Cowboys have two weeks to prepare for new QB Matt Cassel. After three straight losses, the Cowboys have gone 6-0 ATS. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines and should be able to move the ball and score points on this Giants’ defense. Both teams have been solid against the run so I would expect more success through the air. The Giants are allowing close to 300 passing yards per contest and will now play its second game without their best cornerback, Prince Amukamara. He’s not a shutdown corner, but he’s the best of the bunch. The Giants will have to rely on an offense that is averaging just under 30 points in their last 11 games.

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Matt Cassel is the X factor. If he starts turning the ball over and making bad decisions, the Cowboys will get blown out in this game. I believe he has enough game play experience to manage the offense and keep Dallas in the game. The underdog is 20-9 ATS in all Cowboy games of late. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings, including 9-3-1 in New York. Teams off their BYE week went 4-0 ATS last Sunday. The Cowboys are 21-9 SU and 20-10 ATS after its BYE week since 1993. Still, this game is tough for me as the Giants normally bounce back after awful performances. The short week makes me lean slightly to Dallas.

Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Dallas Cowboys +4

These two teams are very familiar with each other. If Tony Romo and Dez Bryant were healthy, I would be all over the Cowboys in this spot. Slight lean to the underdog as Cassel is a bit of a mystery.

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