Denver Broncos(6-2SU, 6-2ATS)vs.Oakland Raiders(6-2SU,5-3ATS)
NFLWeek9
Date/Time:Sunday, November 6, 2016 at 8:25 PMEST
Where: Oakland Coliseum
TV:NBC
byJeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:DENPK/OAK PK
Over/Under Total:43.5
Two teams that are a combined 11-5 ATS meet in this crucial AFC West matchup on Sunday Night Football.
This should be a really good game to watch so lets get right to it. Both clubs come into this contest winning two straight games. Last week, the Broncos defeated the Chargers 27-19 as 3.5-point home chalk. The wise guys loved the Chargers and the public ended up betting with them. You could have gotten 5.5 points early in the week. It did not matter because the Broncos’ defense ranks No. 6 in points allowed and kept Philip Rivers in check with three interceptions. Denver was out-gained for the just the second time this season. Oakland continues to win in ways I haven’t seen for quite some time in this league. The Raiders got out of Tampa Bay with a 30-24 victory as 1-point road dogs in overtime. They finally won the stats for the first time this year. Yes, the Raiders are just 1-6-1 in the stats this year. Oh, and it was a record-setting performance by Derek Carr, who threw for a franchise-high 513 yards not to mention his four touchdown passes. Tampa Bay had no business winning that game much less end up in overtime. The Bucs were out-gained 626-270. Oakland set another NFL record by committing 23 accepted penalties. Amazing!
I will end the suspense right now. I am backing Denver in this game. They have dominated the series of late going 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings. That one loss was last season in the final matchup when the Raiders defeated Denver 15-12 as 6-point road underdogs at Mile High. In that game, the Bronocs out-gained Oakland 310-126, but two lost fumbles cost them a win. Denver had 20 First-Downs, while Oakland had just eight. Goes to show you the term “On Any Given Sunday” really does apply in the NFL. Denver won two months earlier in the first meeting. It was a close 16-10 road victory as five-point favorites.
This will be the third straight game that Denver will start a different QB against Oakland. That’s a slight advantage for the Broncos. Sure, the Raiders have tape on Trevor Siemian, but playing against him is another story. He can run which should help against a Raiders’ defense that is ranked No. 25 in points against. Peyton Manning started last October and than Brock Osweiler replaced Manning as the starter in the second meeting mentioned above. Brock played well throwing for over 300 yards.
The Raiders are allowing 410.4 yards per game while the visitor is allowing just 301.3 yards per contest. The Broncos are allowing a league-best 4.7 yards per play. On the flip side, Oakland is allowing 6.6 yards per play which ranks in the bottom third. Not good folks. The Raiders were one of my sleeper teams this season and I wasn’t alone. You can see this is a talented offense. I though the defense would play better and they still might. At some point, NFL teams can’t continue to win the way Oakland has this season. Oakland could easily be a .500 team, as they are allowing more yards than gained this year. The Broncos’ defense is allowing a league-best 63.6 QB rating against, while the Raiders’ defense has allowed QB’s to post a 94.7 QB rating so far this season. That’s a big number for a team that has won six of their eight games. Excellent job by head coach Jack Del Rio and company. He’s turning around the culture despite a leaky defense. The Raiders are staying close in games thanks to a Top 2 offensive line (Dallas, Oakland) and a big-play offense with the likes of Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree. However, this will be the best defense by far that Oakland has faced so far this season.
This will be a classic NFL game where you have a top-ranked offense (Oakland) going up against a Top-ranked defense (Denver). Oakland’s offense is ranked No. 4, while the Broncos check in at No. 21 according to Football Outsiders. The Broncos’ defense is ranked No. 2, while the Raiders’ stop unit is ranked No. 28 by Football Outsiders. DeMarcus Ware returns to the lineup and when he starts a game along with Von Miller Denver has gone 14-5 SU in the past 19 games.The Visitor is 14-0 ATS in Oakland games of late. The Raiders are just 7-7 SU in predicted close games (when the line is +3 to -3), while the Broncos are an impressive 10-3 SU.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread:Denver Broncos Pick em
I love fading NFL teams after any type of record-setting performance. The Raiders had two with Derek Carr’s passing and all those miscues. The public has been pounding the Raiders based on the fact they will play a much cleaner game than last week’s 23 penalty performance. I’m not buying it! The sportsbooks hung this line at Denver -2.5 and was quickly bet down to a pick em. I think were are getting some value by not having to lay those 2.5 points. The Raiders winning with smoke & mirrors will finally catch up with them against an arch rival. I like Denver at the current line of pick em. Enjoy! Should be a good one.
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