Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants Analysis & Recommended Bet
Detroit Lions (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. New York Giants (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 1PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Point Spread: DET +3/NYG -3 (Bovada – They’re the best sportsbook on the web! Incredible live wagering platform and the most player props of any book!)
Over/Under Total: 46
The Detroit Lions come to East Rutherford to take on the New York Giants on Sunday in a week 11 NFC showdown from MetLife Stadium. The Giants continue to win, and on Sunday, a 24-16 win over the Texans lifted them to 7-2 on the season. For bettors, the picture has been just as rosy, with seven covers on the season. On Sunday, they host a 3-6 Detroit team that parlayed a big fourth quarter last week to overcome another big Justin Fields day, winning 31-30 at Soldier Field. On the road again this week, can the Lions be dangerous, or will the Giants continue their nice run?
Both Teams Better Than It Seems?
At 3-6 and needing a win last week just to get there, it seems like a stretch to say Detroit is better than they look. But they have a pretty high ceiling and can explode offensively in any given week. For the most part, it will be okay for their opponent. But more than infrequently, this offense starts stringing together some success, whether it be on the ground or through the air, where they actually have decent weaponry. In terms of strictly putting up points, they’re a top-ten team. Granted, the defense makes it, so they’re never going to be good. But they’re not one of those cellar-dwelling teams you can neglect. And with the Giants, it’s almost like people are expecting them to fall off, but a 7-2 record speaks loudly. There are those who will continue to dismiss their chances based on the Giants being a team whose only genuine strength is running the ball while being a team that had a slew of close games against some below-average competition inside and outside their division. But to nit-pick, a suffering team that orchestrates a turnaround misses the whole spirit of the point.
Matchup Issues for Detroit
With the nifty legs of QB Daniel Jones, along with the resurgence this season of Saquon Barkley, they can really do damage on the ground, and that almost seems like an area destined for success against a road Detroit defense. We saw what a running QB in Justin Fields can do against this Lions’ defense last week, and it wasn’t pretty. Granted, the Giants’ aerial offense isn’t going to excite most weeks, but this would almost seem to be a spot where they can do enough damage on the ground to get ahead. But in case they need more, there are certain guys who can step up on a given week. Still, with Darius Slayton, Kenny Golladay, and Wan’Dale Robinson as their three main targets, it’s an atypically weak receiver package for a team sporting such a shiny record. In a spot where they might need to put up some points, it’s a point of some concern.
Your position on this game might come down to how good you think the Giants’ defense really is. There are enough teams on their schedule that were either offensively challenged or in poor form at the time to make you wonder how they’re going to hold up against the better offenses they face. Against two of the better ones they already faced this season, they lost to Dallas and then Seattle a few weeks ago. Sure, the Giants’ defense will be given an assist from an offense that should presumably be running the ball well and keeping them off the field. But this could be a spot where the balance of the Detroit offense can trouble them, however inconsistent that Lions’ unit can be.
Avenues to Victory for the Lions
The Giants’ run defense could be in trouble, with the Lions wielding both dependable Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, who looks to be getting healthier. That’s a nice combo in the backfield, and when you combine it with aerial talents like Amon-Ra St. Brown and their smorgasbord of other aerial talents, it’s going to be a lot for the Giants’ defense to contain. The Giants are a clutch group that has come together late in games against some teams where getting down the field was a massive task. Let’s see how they do against a team that can let it fly by the seat of their pants a little bit. The very fact that you can even explore a realistic avenue to victory for a three-win team on the road against a 7-2 team says a lot on its own. With the more-understated Giants’ formula for success, a lively offensive team will always be a decent upset candidate.
The Value Conundrum
There will be people who just refuse to take two conference teams with the records these teams have and rank the 7-win home team a mere three-point favorite. So, while a stance on the Lions is highly justifiable, the value simply isn’t with Detroit this week. The reasoning is sound enough—the Giants aren’t built to go bonkers offensively, and with them unlikely to keep the Lions off the scoreboard for any length of time, this should be a competitive game. That much checks out, but frankly, a position on Detroit would be more appetizing with another 1.5 points or so on that spread.
Take the Points
Part of me bristles at the notion of a thriving Detroit team facing its second straight road game after a draining encounter in Soldier Field. And the Giants are just going to be better than whatever you forecast because nothing on paper is really that outstanding. But with so many people stepping up on this Lions’ offense, I think they can put together enough scoring drives to give the Giants a real sweat this week. The value isn’t great, and teams don’t get to 3-6 without falling flat here and there, but I’ll take a whirl on the Lions this week.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions plus 3 points. Bet your Week 11 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!