Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles Pick 9/22/19

by | Sep 18, 2019 | nfl

Detroit Lions (1-0-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
When: Sunday, September 22nd, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
TV: FOX

Point Spread: DET +7 / PHI -7 (Bet365)
Total: 43.5

Power Ratings: Philadelphia -8

Takeaways From Week Two

The Lions pulled off a thrilling 13-10 upset of the visiting Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday when the Motor City Madmen closed as a one-point underdog. Detroit trailed by a touchdown before they came from behind thanks to several missed Chargers field goals and a late Darius Slay interception in the red-zone that pushed Detroit to its first win this season.

The Eagles laid an egg on Sunday Night Football when they went into the ATL with many expecting Philly to soar, only to find the Birds on the losing end of a 24-20 loss to the “Dirty Birds” a.k.a “The Artist Formerly Known as the Atlanta Falcons.” Philadelphia has now failed to cover in their previous four outings, including their last two pre-season matches. Philadelphia closed as a one-point favorite in their aforementioned loss to the Falcons.

How the Public is Betting the Detroit- Philadelphia Game

55% of the public fancy the underdog here with the points and as a result we have seen this line move fall by 1.5 points at many sportsbooks from the opening figure of Philadelphia laying 8.5 to Detroit, initially.

The Historicals

The Lions have won three of the last four matches between these two NFC combatants. The two sides last met in the Motor City in 2016 and resulted in Detroit edging out Philly 24-23 despite closing as a 3.5-point underdog.



Betting Trends

The most prominent narrative that has emerged is the Home Team going 3-0 SU and ATS in the previous three contests. Undoubtedly, home-field advantage will be influential as both teams’ wins this season have come on their own pitch. Embellishing upon this trend, the Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six outings. For Over/Under players, the Over is 6-0 ATS in the previous six fixtures.

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Injury Concerns

The injury bug has seemingly nipped Philadelphia’s receiving corps as both Wide Receivers Desean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery left the game on Sunday with injuries to their groin and calf. Jackson is presently sporting a Q-tag while Jeffery looks doubtful for this match-up.

Why We Like The Eagles To Cover

Some other betting sites suggest that the Eagles are undervalued here and I couldn’t agree more. After all, the Eagles looked poor on Sunday Night Football before a national prime-time audience, and that will undoubtedly steer the action away from Philly in this contest. This, in turn, creates value as we can now get Philadelphia at a better price. Nevertheless, we must highlight that the public overreaction that is taking shape here has been a snowball effect.

Heading into the regular season, there was a lot of hype surrounding this Philadelphia team, and Joe Public was all over the Eagles in Week One against the Redskins, ready to spot a double-digit allotment of points to Washington without batting an eye. Low and behold, Washington came through the backdoor with a cover in the last ten seconds of regulation, produced many ripped-tickets, and left takers with a very bitter taste in their mouth. In Philly’s follow up against an underwhelming Atlanta team, the Eagles once again ruined many parlays and crushed hopes of those banking on Philadelphia to bounce back and help bettors round off their Sunday plate with a win. As a result of both, the consensus has seemingly flipped on the Eagles, and now the points look more appealing than ever. As a result, this allows us to take advantage of a likely short-sold favorite.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Philadelphia -7

The Lions could have easily lost on Sunday. However, to the naked eye, the victory looks like a quality win over a strong opponent. However, Detroit submarined a Los Angeles Chargers team that came in off a hard-fought overtime win the week before, and that is a notorious let-down spot. Unfortunately for Detroit Rock City, they will not be getting Philadelphia in the Motor City in a similar predicament but instead have to face an Eagles team in its own yard, hungry for a win, eager to make a statement. In light of averaging 26 points per game so far this season, Philadelphia will have their most productive offensive game yet, and Detroit will not have an answer. I have the Eagles winning this one by at least two touchdowns, lay this number with confidence.

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