Falcons at Buccaneers Pick 9/19/21

by | Sep 13, 2021 | nfl

Atlanta Falcons (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 2

Date/Time: Sunday September 19th, 2021. 4:05PM (EST)

Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, F.L.


Point Spread: ATL +12.5/TB -12.5 (Bookmaker - Gigantic limits and FAST payouts!)

Over/Under Total: 52.5

The reigning Super Bowl Champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, survived a difficult opening challenge last Thursday by beating the Dallas Cowboys 31-29. QB Tom Brady continued to defy Father Time with 379 passing yards with four touchdowns and two picks. Brady led the Buccaneers down the field on a game-winning drive which set up a 36-yard field goal from Ryan Succop to seal the victory. By all accounts, the Buccaneers appeared to solidify their stance as the best team in the NFC by holding off a Cowboys offense that was firing on all cylinders with the return of QB Dak Prescott. On Sunday, the Buccaneers will host the Atlanta Falcons in their first NFC South pairing of the season and will be enormous 12.5 point favorites in their 2nd straight game inside Raymond James Stadium.

While the Buccaneers were able to meet expectations last week, the Atlanta Falcons failed to deliver in Head Coach Arthur Smith’s debut in Atlanta. In fact, the Falcons were embarrassed by the visiting Philadelphia Eagles in their opener. Personally, I thought the Falcons would be the clear better team against Philadelphia and expected veteran QB Matt Ryan to outperform the upcoming young talent in Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. Man, I could not have been more wrong. While Hurts performed well, Ryan looked like he had aged five years. To be fair, it was not Ryan’s fault as he was hit on nearly every play from the horrific play of the Falcons’ offensive line. Atlanta could not run the football, and they could not buy enough time for Ryan to get the ball downfield. Both of those combinations are very concerning as the Falcons visit an even better Buccaneers defense on Sunday.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis

Tom Brady has received most of the credit for last year’s Super Bowl victory, and I’m not trying to cast shadows on anything Brady has accomplished. However, I’m surprised that the Buccaneers defense has not received better praise. At the end of the 2020 season, Tampa Bay’s defense was playing better than anyone in the league. The defense finished the year with 48 sacks and finished in the Top 5 in all major categories. As evidenced in last week’s Thursday night opener, Tampa Bay continues to have an elite pass rush and a dominating defensive front. Judging by the quality of talent I saw along Atlanta’s offensive line last week; this is a potential eruption spot for the Buccaneers defense.

Atlanta has not solved any of the issues which led to a 4-12 SU record in 2020. By all accounts, the team has gotten worse. WR Calvin Ridley is the lone bright spot on the team and is trying to fill the shoes of former star WR Julio Jones who is now in Tennessee. I just don’t see enough weapons in Atlanta’s arsenal to challenge Tampa’s defense. Furthermore, Brady and the Buccaneers looked great on offense last week. WR Antonio Brown showed the flashiness we have not seen since his Pittsburgh Steelers days, and we know Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are elite receiving threats as well. The entire offense is absolutely loaded, and I expect them to get numerous opportunities on Sunday as Tampa’s defense dominates. Look for Brady to have another big day as the Buccaneers cruise against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
  • The Buccaneers have won 9 straight games (SU)
  • The Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
  • Atlanta is 6-3 SU against the Buccaneers in the previous nine meetings (Tampa won both 2020 games)
  • Atlanta has hit the “under” in six of the last eight games
  • Atlanta is 2-11 SU in their previous 13 games against NFC opponents
  • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September
  • Atlanta is 3-1 ATS since 2018 as double-digit underdogs

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Tampa Bay -12.5. Did you know? Wagerweb Sportsbook offers 19 point NFL teasers? You can make the Bucs at +6.5 underdog!