Free NFL Picks: Texans vs. Colts Week 18 Predictions

The Houston Texans meet the Indianapolis Colts in a critical week 18 matchup from Lucas Oil Stadium in this prime-time Saturday night spot. These AFC South rivals face a season-defining game this week, a rematch from a week two showdown the Colts won, 31-20. Both teams overcame a lot this season, with the Colts braving a series of injuries and other personnel issues to still be in here with a chance. Meanwhile, the Texans really flourished ahead of schedule, overcoming injuries of their own to still be here in week 18 with a shot at the postseason. Which of the 9-7 teams can get it done on Saturday in crunch time?

Breaking Down the Stakes

Barring some massively unlikely series of events that involves ties, this is essentially a play-your-way-in scenario for both teams. There are scenarios where the winner of this game would be a division winner and not just a wild-card entrant, but that involves the Jaguars game, of which neither team has control and that won’t be played until the following day. For the purposes of this contest, this is a game where the winner goes to the playoffs, and the loser goes home.

Who is in Better Shape in Week 18?

A 23-20 win over the Raiders last week kept the Colts in the hunt. The Texans, meanwhile, got a big boost from the return of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, the man responsible for turning things around for this team, beating the Titans, 26-3, on Sunday. Having him return just in time to help make this playoff run is key for the Texans, and we saw how he rubs off on the team last week, with all facets of the team running better when he’s behind center and bringing life to this offense. His return will likely continue, leading to the better results we started to see last Sunday.

Respect for Either Side of this Equation

This is a bet where neither side should feel too comfortable going against these teams. With the Colts, you see a team led at QB by a journeyman in Gardner Minshew. Their backfield has been shuffled around all season, with Jonathan Taylor not healthy for much of the year. They have a good receiver in Michael Pittman, who is just coming back, along with a cast of other players who will show up with production only sporadically. Then on the other sideline is a Houston team where you could hear a sort of collective “Well, that was fun, but now it’s over” after Stroud went down with an injury. Their receivers were banged up, losing Tank Dell for the season, with others on that offense really cooling down lately. But they hung in there, got a win without Stroud, and now he’s back, and maybe they can get back to where they were.

Colts backers might be licking their chops. Sure, Stroud is back, but instead of those multi-way big games they’re getting from receivers, it’s just Nico Collins now. Noah Brown (questionable) has seemingly disappeared. Dalton Schultz has been quiet. And now, at home, maybe the Colts’ defense can produce a higher-end level of form and keep them in check. A Texans backer sees a top-notch rookie QB on their team, with Minshew on the other side. They see a dangerous Indy offense but also a mistake-prone one where an opportunistic Houston “D” can capitalize.

We still need to keep in mind the things that make these teams above average. Different faces in the backfield aside, the Colts can really run the ball and quell opposing defenses with that good offensive line. They are well-coached and really tough along both lines of scrimmage. It was a long time ago, but in their first game with the Texans, it was a real “welcome to the NFL” day for the Indy defense, all over Stroud and getting six sacks, which doesn’t even do justice to how much pressure they put on him. But Indy backers this week need to account for the growth shown by Stroud over the course of a challenging season where he rose to the occasion.

Does Houston Have the Same Firepower?

It’s possible to run against the Indy defense, but Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce are hardly bankable in this context. Houston really needs this part of their game to show up to lend more credence to an aerial game that might not be coming into this game in peak form. It was one thing when Stroud was making mincemeat of opposing defenses with huge passing games, with Dell, Collins, Brown, and Schultz all having big games left and right. But with it now just being Collins, with Dell gone and Brown and Schultz fading as the season goes on, is this where it really shows that Houston isn’t hitting week 18 the best version of themselves? Or was last week more a tune-up for Stroud, and here is where they turn him loose?

Take the Home Favorite

It’s tempting to go with Houston, as they might be the team with the brighter future, not to mention that scary ceiling a more up-to-speed Stroud could tap into with more distance between him and his injury. It’s just hard to get away from the power Indy has along both lines and how that will resonate into another difficult matchup for Houston, a team that is on the way up but still needs some cooperation in order for things to flourish. I see a good two-way effort from the Colts, with their “D” causing enough disruption, along with enough ground and air plays on offense to keep the Texans at bay. I’m going with the Colts in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Indianapolis Colts minus 1 point.