Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Pick – Turkey Day Predictions

The Green Bay Packers come to Ford Field on Thursday for a Thanksgiving NFC North showdown with the Detroit Lions. Both teams are coming off hard-earned wins last Sunday, as they now try to turn around on the short week for this big game. The Packers braved injuries and finally got a good game from QB Jordan Love as they edged the Chargers in a back-and-forth struggle at Lambeau, 23-20. Detroit, meanwhile, overcame a late 26-14 deficit kept plugging away, eventually beating Chicago 31-26. Will the Lions continue rolling on Thanksgiving, or can Green Bay keep the momentum they found on Sunday going into this week?

The First Game

These teams met in week 4, with the Lions posting a 34-20 win that wasn’t as close as the score suggested. Taking a 27-3 lead into the third quarter, the Packers saw some things that could resurface this week with Detroit rolling along and now at home. They really ran the ball well against the Packers and now with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs really cooking in that Detroit backfield, we could see more of the same.

In addition, we saw the Detroit defense play a large role in the Lions’ win, and they’re only getting better—an impactful group that, while not invulnerable, are, in fact, pretty stout. They got two picks off Love in the first game, with the pass rush seemingly always in his face. But Love did have some aerial yardage, and after going over 300 last week, maybe we see more of the same. In what should have been an uplifting win, however, Green Bay saw two key parts of their offense being carted off this past week, with starting back Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson taken off the field. While neither of those guys were really knocking it out of the park, it’s not an offense that can really afford personnel setbacks of that nature.

Best Hope for Green Bay

The Lions are at home, and it’s not like the Packers are in a much better spot from an energy standpoint, coming off a demanding game in their own right on Sunday. But the Lions could be due for a clunker, coming off the short week where they had to pull out all the stops to beat a down Bears team that controlled most of the game. They have a stranglehold on the division standings, and while it might be unwise to try to time the comedown, maybe this isn’t the worst spot from a timing perspective for the Packers.

The Packers’ defense catches a lot of guff for a unit that has given up over 25 points just twice this season. They have their issues—make no mistake. And they’ve dealt with personnel issues, as well. But they’ve been decently serviceable lately. With four turnovers on Sunday and three picks by Jared Goff, we’ve seen less electricity lately from Goff aerially and some rough games lately, made less visible by the defense and run-game picking up the slack in some cases.

Tough Spot for the Packers?

Last week saw the Packers get over the hump against a sideways Chargers team way out of their wheelhouse at Lambeau. And it still wasn’t an offensive bonanza by any means, going against a Chargers’ defense that has been giving up production to everyone they face. You wonder if what we saw out of Love and this Packers’ offense carries over to this week. Their run game hasn’t really been impactful this season, but with Jones, there was a chance that maybe it could be. That’s gone with Jones out of commission. And while we’ve seen Love put up some numbers and wring some production from this aerial package in more-ideal conditions against the right opponent, being on the road against one of the better teams in the league through ten games that has a defense that can do damage might not be one of those convenient spots for Love.

Last week, the Packers saw their seasons converge with a team going through a lot of the same things in the Chargers. The Bolts have seen nary a spark all season, and their defense has really struggled. In that context, the Packers can let their overall moxie surface and seem halfway-effective. I think when facing good teams who are in working order at the time they play Green Bay, the Packers are going to be in big trouble more often than not. Their four wins this season were against the flat Chargers, a Bears team that seldom wins, a one-point win at home over New Orleans, and a win a few weeks ago over a Brett Rypien-led Rams team. Meanwhile, they’ve lost to the Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, and Vikings. The schedule was there to be had, and they haven’t gotten it done. In what is a really tough spot in Detroit seems a weird place to start.

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

I sense the trap too. This seems like a good week for the Lions to come out flat with the game up for grabs at the end. I just can’t help but think these kinds of spots are going to be all wrong for Green Bay as we get into the second half of the season. With their already-languishing offense now having taken more hits and their defense having been made to look a little better than it is lately, I see there being potential for a big reality sandwich coming Green Bay’s way this week. I’ll take Detroit in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions minus 7.5 points.