Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Analysis & Free Pick ATS

by | Dec 1, 2022 | nfl

Green Bay Packers (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS) v. Chicago Bears (3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

NFL Week 13

When: Sunday, December 4 at 1 pm ET

Where: Soldier Field – Chicago, IL

Watch: FOX

Point Spread: GB -5.5/CHI +5.5 (Bovada – 50% Bonus! Rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose! FAST payouts! HUGE menu of props! What more could you ask for?)

Over/Under Total: 43.5

Rivalries in the NFL make for good TV, and perhaps no rivalry is as storied as Packers-Bears. Sunday marks the 206th game between these two teams, with the first meeting dating back to the 1921 season. Green Bay has largely dominated this series in the combined Favre-Rodgers era and enters the week having won each of the last five against Chicago, but the Packers are suddenly vulnerable and just one game out of last place in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers was forced from last week’s game after a hit to the ribs, he is anticipated to play, but Justin Fields is likely to miss at least one more week after dislocating his shoulder in Week 11. Both teams are dealing with a long list of injuries beyond their respective quarterbacks, and this game is really up in the air as a result. Each team is also likely to miss out on the playoffs so that could push some depth players onto the field even more than the injury situation.

Trend Watch

Green Bay is just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games overall, with the same 2-7 ATS mark in the last nine on the road. They have lost all four games against the spread this season when playing a team with a losing record. Chicago is 1-7 against the spread in their last eight division games, with three ATS wins in the last eleven games at Soldier Field. All long-term ATS trends really favor the Packers, including an 18-5 record against the spread in Chicago and 23 ATS wins in the last 30 overall in this series. The Over is 6-1 in the last seven when Green Bay plays a team with a losing record, but the Under is 8-3 in the last eleven games played in December. The Over has hit in each of the last six Chicago games and five of the last six against an NFC opponent.

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Unfamiliar Territory

Green Bay had back-to-back losing seasons in 2017 and 2018, but you have to go back to 2005 to find the last time they were four games under .500 at this point in the season. They finished 4-12 in that campaign, which was also the last time they finished 4th in the NFC North. Just about everything that could have gone wrong for Green Bay has, from the struggles to replace Davante Adams to key injuries to an underwhelming defense, this season has been one to forget. Last week provided a bellwether performance by Jordan Love, who was pressed into action after Rodgers exited the game against the Eagles. Love completed six of nine passes for 113 yards, including a 63-yard score to Christian Watson. In a season that has lacked positive moments, the future of the Green Bay offense may have shown itself on that play. Rodgers has thrown for a respectable 21 touchdowns, but his nine interceptions are the third-most in his career, and he is on pace to push his career high of thirteen. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been the most consistent producers on the team and have been instrumental in Green Bay staying in games, but both are banged up. Jones is dealing with a shin injury, and Dillon has a quad issue. Dillon is reportedly dealing with a more serious injury and is more at risk to miss the game entirely. It has been a steady progression for Christian Watson over the last three weeks. The rookie now leads the team with six touchdown receptions, and 20 of his 34 targets have come since breaking out against Dallas. Randall Cobb being back has provided the chemistry that Rodgers has always favored, and Green Bay has averaged 25 points per game since he returned from injury. The defense has continued to struggle, and it will probably cost DC Joe Barry his job. Green Bay is 31st against the run and 22nd in scoring defense, allowing 23.6 points per game. Jalen Hurts had over 100 rushing yards in the first quarter last week, and the Packers never really adjusted, so it’s good that the mobile Fields is out or at least limited if he does improve enough to see the field.More Picks: Get Dan’s Denver at Baltimore Week 13 game analysis & pick ATS’

Ready for Next Year

Things are actually looking up for Chicago despite their 3-9 record. They are trending in the right direction with their young quarterback and are in a position to get another potential high draft pick, so color the Bears fans excited for the future. Even though more L’s might ultimately help the draft pick situation, this is a game that everyone on Chicago’s side wants to win. Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears for years so look for a motivated bunch on Sunday. Chicago is the worst passing offense in the NFL, but they are also the best rushing offense. They are 19th in scoring at 20.9 points per game but averaged 28.7 over the four-game span prior to Fields’ shoulder injury. Darnell Mooney has hit the IR, leaving newly acquired Chase Claypool as the #1 receiver. TE Cole Kmet leads the team with five touchdown receptions, all of which have come in the last five weeks, and he has 19 of his 29 receptions over that span as well. David Montgomery has rushed for 580 yards and three touchdowns while chipping in 21 receptions, good for fourth on the team. Trevor Siemian appears in line to start again if Fields cannot go. He suffered an oblique injury during warm-ups last week but managed to throw for 184 yards and a touchdown in a gutty performance. Chicago’s defense has been leaky for much of the season, with bottom-10 ranks in rushing yards allowed and total yards allowed, and they are 27th in scoring defense at 25.4 points per game. The Bears haven’t been able to bring consistent QB pressure, with Jaquan Brisker’s three sacks leading the team. Eddie Jackson leads the secondary with four interceptions, and he will be looking for career pick #2 against Rodgers after getting one in 2019 that ended Rodgers streak of 402 consecutive passes without an INT.

Take the Pack

You can see the tides turning in this rivalry, but Aaron Rodgers still owns the deed to Soldier Field until the Bears can truly get over the hump. A fully healthy Justin Fields would be an absolute difference-maker on the ground in this game, but it is unlikely that Chicago will put him out there at all, and they will limit his rush attempts if he does suit up. Given all the injuries and limitations to this offense, a limited Fields or a banged-up Trevor Siemian are probably just not enough to move the ball and score consistently. Rodgers has a #1 option in the making, and that chemistry with Christian Watson will continue to build. A defense that has to honor the downfield pass cannot overload to stop the run, which will free Aaron Jones to play a big factor in this one, just like he did with two touchdowns in Week 2. Rodgers can overcome his variety of injuries with the running game leading the way, and even last week’s version of Jordan Love is going to be tough for Chicago to stop in case Rodgers gets knocked out again. It could be a close contest through the half, but this one goes similarly to the first meeting, and Green Bay gets a 26-16 win.

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