Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Pick 10/17/21

by | Oct 14, 2021 | nfl

Green Bay Packers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) v. Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

NFL Week 6

When: Sunday, Oct. 17 at 1 pm ET

Where: Soldier Field - Chicago, IL

TV: FOX

Point Spread: GB -4.5/CHI +4.5 (BetNow - Bet ALL of your Week 6 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000! Free loot is good loot!)

Over/Under Total: 45

One of the best rivalries in all of sports is set for another edition as the Green Bay Packers head to Chicago to take on the Bears. This will be the 203rd meeting between the teams, with Green Bay leading the all-time series 101-95-6. The Packers have dominated over the last decade-plus, going 19-4 against the Bears, but new hope is alive in Chicago as Justin Fields looks to start a new era. A Green Bay win would make them a prohibitive favorite to win the NFC North before we even get to the season’s halfway point, but a Chicago upset would put them on top of the division standings.

Trend Watch

Green Bay has won four straight against the spread and has a 5-1 ATS mark in their last six against teams with a winning record. The Packers are 6-2 against the spread in their previous eight as favorites and 5-2 ATS in the last seven against a division foe. Chicago has covered in 14-of-21 when they are the home underdog but are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten division games. The Bears have also struggled against quality competition, going 5-11 ATS against teams with winning records over the previous sixteen. The OVER has hit in five of the last six when Green Bay plays in the division, but the UNDER is 16-5 when Chicago plays at home. Early betting has about 66% of the public money on the Packers with a 50-50 split on each side of the over/under total.

Ugly But Effective

Green Bay hasn’t put together four good quarters of football during any game this season, but they have managed to win four straight since dropping the opener, and they have successfully navigated some key injuries. The crazy ending of the Cincinnati game somewhat hid Davante Adams’ career-high 206 yards. He leads the NFL in catches, yards, and receptions of 20+ yards, but Green Bay is still just 17th in passing yards per game. The offense as a whole is just 22nd in total yards and 14th in points at 24.0 per game, but Aaron Rodgers (101.3 QBR) has found ways to do just enough during the win streak. In 25 previous contests against the Bears, Rodgers has thrown for 55 touchdowns against ten interceptions with a 107.2 overall rating. Green Bay’s banged-up offensive line is looking healthier with Elgton Jenkins and Josh Meyers trending toward availability, but CB Jaire Alexander remains out with a shoulder injury. The defense has struggled to get pressure without Za’Darius Smith, but Green Bay is 6th in total yards allowed and top-10 against the pass despite the injuries. RB A.J. Dillon continues to carve out a larger role in his second season and gives the Packers a solid short-yardage option that can chew the clock.

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Grow Up Fast

Eager Chicago fans are getting their wish with rookie Justin Fields now at the helm, but the youngster will need to progress quickly with the Bears sitting dead-last in passing and total yards gained. Growing pains are to be expected, but Fields’ current 51% completion rate and 64.5 QBR isn’t going to get it done against Green Bay this weekend. Chicago is a top-10 rushing offense and has committed just four turnovers en route to a 3-2 start, but some kind of passing game will have to emerge. Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney are good options on the outside and TE Cole Kmet, but that trio has accounted for 523 total receiving yards this season which is 56 fewer than what Davante Adams has on his own. The Chicago D is doing a lot of heavy lifting with the 8th fewest yards allowed, and their 20.0 points per game allowed is top-10 as well. Khalil Mack has five sacks with Robert Quinn at 4.5, and the Bears lead the league with 18 sacks as a team.

Rodgers Continues to Own Chicago - Take Green Bay

The Chicago Park District owns Soldier Field, but Green Bay must have an option to buy after winning ten of the last eleven in Chicago, and only one of those results would not have covered the current 4.5 point spread. The Packers aren’t hitting on all cylinders, but they are winning despite it, and that kind of momentum is tough to stop. I think they are closer to figuring it all out than they are to getting upset this weekend by a Chicago offense that isn’t built to keep up. The Bears can keep it close and low-scoring with a strong defensive effort, but even that good overall defense has holes like giving up the 8th-most third-down conversions. Rodgers-to-Adams has been all that Green Bay needs, and that duo has hooked up for a touchdown in three straight against Chicago. They will make it four consecutive, and Green Bay’s defense is enough against Fields, who is facing a steep learning curve. The Packers jump out to a 14-3 lead at the half and put things away late with a 24-13 final.

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