Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick

by | Sep 22, 2022 | nfl

Green Bay Packers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

NFL Week 2

When: Sunday, Sep. 25 at 4:25p ET

Where: Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

TV:FOX

Point Spread: GB +1.5/TB -1.5 (BAS - Bet on games at -105 instead of -110! This will save you HUGE money over the long haul and is 10x more valuable than any bonus!)

Over/Under Total: 41.5

One of the best Week 3 matchups is a battle of the bays as Green Bay heads to Tampa Bay in what could be an NFC Championship Game preview. This is also a GOAT fight, and potentially the last time we see Tom Brady square off with Aaron Rodgers. Brady has the best of the all-time series with a 4-1 record against the Packers in the Rodgers era, including both games as a Buccaneer. After a shaky start in Week 1, Green Bay showed a little more continuity in taking out the Bears last week. That mimics their start from last season, where they looked terrible in the opener but then won in Week 2, and they went on to win the next six games. Tampa Bay is off and running at 2-0 but hasn’t looked good on offense with just 39 total points scored. What was supposed to be the best WR group in the league hasn’t found a rhythm with Brady yet, and it won’t get better this weekend with Julio Jones still questionable and Mike Evans suspended for one game after once again dusting up with Marshon Lattimore. It is unusual with these QBs on the field, but the defenses could be the stars of the show, and the public has bet the opening total of 46.5 all the way down to 41.5 by Wednesday.

Trend Watch

Green Bay has played well against good competition, going 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve against teams with winning records, and they are 10-4 ATS in the last fourteen conference games. The early season has been good, with the Packers going 10-3 against the spread in the last thirteen September games. The Bucs are on a nice trend at home with an 11-3 ATS mark in the last fourteen at Raymond James, and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six against the NFC. The Under has hit in five of the last seven when Green Bay plays an opponent above .500, but a long-term trend has the Over with an impressive 24-10 mark in September games. The Under has paid in eight of the last ten Tampa Bay games against an NFC opponent. Through the early betting, about 62% of the public money has been on the Bucs’ side, with 60% of the money on the Over.

Spread it Out

We knew that replacing Davante Adams was not going to be an easy task, and while a #1 has not been identified yet, it looks like a committee approach could work in Green Bay. Through two weeks, four different pass catchers are tied for the team lead with six receptions each, and five more have five receptions. Sammy Watkins showed some big play ability against Chicago and leads the team with 111 yards, with rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson both seeing targets. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are in that six-catch group, with that duo accounting for three of the four touchdowns that Green Bay has through two weeks. Allen Lazard returned to the field last week and had a quiet day with 13 yards but did score, and suddenly the Packers have a variety of weapons to use. Rodgers turned in a nice night against the Bears after a rough Week 1, he will have to be sharp against a Bucs defense that has allowed just 190 passing yards per game. The Green Bay defense was dismantled in Week 1 but held Chicago to just seven points, and they enter the week ranked 10th in total yards allowed. The passing defense is giving up just 158 yards per game after stifling Justin Fields, but the run defense is currently 27th, and Tampa has the ability to run the ball. Preston Smith and Rashan Gary are tied for the team lead with two sacks a piece.

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It’s Not Pretty But It Works

Tampa Bay is among the unbeaten teams, but they haven’t looked like contenders on offense, with bottom-10 ranks in passing and total yards. Their 19.5 points per game average is 18th, and Brady has just two scores on the year, but 2-0 is 2-0, and they have a chance to stay perfect against a Green Bay team that they have beaten in two straight. Brady’s current 59% completion rate would be the lowest of his career, and his 6.0 yards per attempt would also be a career-worst if the trend continues. Part of the passing game woes are due to injuries, with Chris Godwin and Julio Jones both missing time. Brady will be without Mike Evans this weekend, leaving Breshad Perriman, Russell Gage, and Scotty Miller as top targets. Leonard Fournette is 5th in the league with 192 rushing yards, and it has been a typical grind-it-out effort, with his longest carry at 17 yards. The Bucs’ defense has been the “star of the show” and leads the league at 6.5 points per game allowed. Devin White leads the team with three sacks, and seven Bucs have at least one-half sack so far, with the secondary recording four interceptions. Rodgers is the best QB this defense has faced, but the advantage is still slightly in Tampa’s favor, with Green Bay still figuring things out.

More Pick: Get Dan’s LA Rams at Cards predicted point spread winner.

Brady Finds a Way, Take the Bucs

Expect an ugly game, and Brady is better than Rodgers in those conditions. Rodgers is one of the best ever when he is extending plays and finding his playmakers, but he doesn’t have a Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams at his disposal right now. Aaron Jones is averaging nearly nine yards per carry, and A.J. Dillon is potentially the league’s next great finisher at running back, but they are going to go to face a tough run defense. This game will be on Rodgers, and the Bucs are getting a ton of pressure on the QB in the early going. Rodgers has a tendency to hold the ball a long time, and that will leave him at the mercy of the Bucs’ pass rush. This one stays close with neither team looking explosive at the moment, look for Fournette to control the pace, and the clock as Brady finds just enough in the passing game to move the sticks and get a 24-20 win.

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