Houston Texans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, October 4, 1:00pm
Where: Georgia Dome Atlanta, Georgia
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: HOU +6.5 / ATL -6.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5
This Sunday at 1:00pm, the Houston Texans will travel east to take on the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome. Houston enters this contest at 1-2 overall and sitting in first place tie with the entire division. Yeah, sad right? Anyhow, the Falcons come in undefeated at 3-0 and are tied atop the NFC South the Carolina Panthers who are also undefeated. Houston has weapons on defense, but the offense has not been able to put up enough points. So far through week three, the Texans season high in scoring is 20. If this continues, they are in for a very long season.
The Atlanta Falcons open as a 6.5 home favorite over the Texans, and the over under is set at 46.5 points combined. Atlanta is getting an insane 74% of the betting action as we speak74%! The Falcons have covered the spread in every game this season, while the Texans got their first cover this past week with a win over Tampa Bay.
I watched Houston on Hard Knocks on HBO this past month or so and was impressed with them. Of course losing Arian Foster was going to hinder the offense some, but I really thought they were still going to be a contender for their division. Well, they are still a contender. As underwhelming as the Texans have looked, the Colts are the biggest disappointment so far and with all four division teams at 1-2, this is still anyones ball game. The Texans have not been able to score much at all. Through the three games they have only scored 20 points once and that was in a loss. The defense has played decent but they absolutely need some help. Statistically, the Texans are not bad in any category. They still rank in the upper half of the NFL in passing yards and rushing yards, they just cannot put the ball in the endzone, averaging just 18.3 points per game, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Typically, this is a sign of poor quarterback play. Most of the leagues starters can play between the 20s but once you get in the red zone, things change. Until Houston gets the quarterback situation resolved, their fans need to get used to this. The keys to beating the Falcons, DEFENSE. They must keep this game low scoring, which is not easy when you are facing Matt Ryan and Julio Jonesask Dallas. If Houston can stop the run and force the Birds to be one dimensional, then they have a shot.
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the NFLs biggest surprises. First year head coach, Dan Quinn, has changed their entire attitude and not only on the defensive side, but the offense too. Atlanta is more balanced this year than they have been since like 2010 or 2011. Not only has the offense put up points, but the defense is making plays when they need. Another key so far to Atlantas 3-0 start is how they have finished games. In years past, under Mike Smith, the Falcons were notorious for blowing big leads. Just take a look at the NFC title game back in 2012gut wrenching. Now, the Falcons are the team making the adjustments and pouring it on late. This team could be very dangerous come January if they continue to improve. Statistically, the Falcons are 2nd in the NFL in passing yards averaging 305 per game. The run game is also improved, they are 14th in the league, but at a 106 yards a game, that is a huge improvement from years past. This can be a testament to the combo of Tevin Coleman and Devanta Freeman, but it is also a sign that the Falcons horrible O-line is finally coming together. This game is simple. The Falcons need to force the Texans into some untimely turnovers and they need to remain balanced on offense. If this takes place, Atlanta could have this game put away early in the fourth quarter.
This is a tough game to pick with such a big spread. Yes, it is only 6.5, but in the NFL that is a pretty big one. As a life long Falcons game I tend to try to not follow my heart and make these picks with stats and logic. So here we go. I think Atlanta wins this game, but I think they have to fight for it. The Houston defense will attack Matt Ryan and make the offensive line uncomfortable throughout the game. I think Atlanta wins a pretty tough game by a 24-20 score meaning that the Texans cover the 6.5.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE HOUSTON TEXANS +6.5. Bet this game for FREE by taking advantage of a HUGE 50% bonus offer at one of the web’s oldest and most trusted bookies: Bookmaker.
Additional NFL Football Betting Previews