Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick 10/13/19
Houston Texans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, October 13, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Point Spread: Hou +5 / KC -5 (YouWager)
Over/Under Total: 55
Buckle your seat belts for this week 6 AFC showdown between 2 AFC Division Leaders as the Texans invade Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs. 5Dimes has made KC 5 point favorites and set a high game total of 55 points. The play is to take the Texans and the points. Here are three reasons.
The Chiefs Have Hit a Speed Bump
Andy Reid’s squad got out of the gate fast in 2019. They averaged just under 500 yards per game in their first three contests and 34 points per game over the first four games. Patrick Mahomes picked up where he left off last year throwing ten touchdowns in the first quarter of the season to 6 different receivers and has continued to make throws that don’t seem humanly possible. But the ground game has struggled all year and the last two weeks the whole Chiefs offense has bogged down a little. They totaled only 324 yards last week against an injured Colt defense that allowed the Raiders 377 yards the week before, and KC only converted 4 of 12 3rd downs. Injuries have played a part in slowing down the Chiefs, as Sammy Watkins didn’t make it through the first series last week, Tyreek Hill hasn’t played since week one and Mahomes has been nursing a sprained ankle that he aggravated during the Colts game. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman are good complementary pieces, but they are not number 1 receiver. Travis Kelce continues to do his thing, but he needs help on the outside. There is a chance Hill returns this week, which makes the Texans change their defensive gameplan. Whether Hill is back or not, it looks like it will take a few weeks to get the Chief’s offensive machine back on the fast track.
Houston’s defense should be able to keep the pressure on Mahomes. They are 10th in the league with 15 sacks led by Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt. KC also has some injuries on their O-line that will make things a little easier on the Texan front 4. The Texan D is solid against the run, averaging only 4.4 yards per carry and holding their last three opponents under 100 yards, so don’t expect LeSean McCoy or Damien Williams to get the Chief running game back in gear. Houston’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s as good as the Colts D that just kept the Chiefs in check. I don’t look for KC to get back in the fast lane this week, which will give the Texans every chance to keep the game close or come out on top.
Desean Watson Is On Fire
Watson has proven this year that he can put the Texans on his back and carry the team. Last week he lit up a bad Falcon defense for 426 yards and five touchdowns, plus 47 rushing yards. He only missed on 5 of his 33 attempts and has one of the best groups of receivers in the league to throw to. DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills are a defensive coordinator’s nightmare, they have the speed to stretch the field and are great at contested catches. They have combined for 70 catches and 935 yards. Stills missed last week with a hamstring injury, but he should be ready on Sunday. Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are averaging a combined 100 yards per game and providing a serviceable backfield committee that will keep the Chiefs defense honest on Sunday, and keep the chains moving for Texas. Houston got hot against a bad Falcon defense last week, and I look for them to stay hot this week.
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KC’s Defense Is a M*A*S*H Unit
Kansas City’s defense came into 2019 as the weak link of this team. They made some moves to improve, try and improve both the talent and the coaching, and early on, things looked better. But last week the injuries have piled up and things are taking a turn for the worse. Both defensive tackles, including stud pass rusher Chris Jones, will be out this week, along with Middle Linebacker Anthony Hitchens and possibly defensive end Alex Okafor. Indy rushed for 151 yards last week and held the ball for 37 minutes, including 21 in the second half, when these players were out. KC also didn’t record a sack in the game. The Texan O-Line will never be confused with the Colts O-Line, but they have been playing better as the season has progressed and did not allow a sack last week – albeit against a weak Falcon front. An injury here and there can be overcome in the NFL, but 3 of 4 defensive linemen and the middle linebacker is a cluster of injuries that would challenge a good defense. I expect KC’s defensive to give up a lot of yards and have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down against the Texans.
Take the Points With the Texans
The Texans are too good for the Chiefs to run away and hide in this game. The Texans will at least stay close in this game, so getting the 5 points is definitely the play. Take Houston +5.
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