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City vs. Houston Texans AFC Wildcard Preview and Pick.
Houston Texans (2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS)
NFL Week 7
Date and Time: Sunday, October 20, 4:25pm
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: HOU +7/KC -7
Over/Under Total: 40
This Sunday we have a great AFC matchup in store. If I had told you in week 7, the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs would host the 2-4 Houston Texans, you would probably think I was insane. Well, thats exactly what we have going on. The Kansas City Chiefs, under the leadership of new head coach, Andy Reid, have taken the AFC by storm. Coming into this game at 6-0, the Chiefs have looked legit. The NFL has a history of teams jumping out to hot starts only to fall on their face down the stretch, I dont see this being the case for KC. I like this team a lot. Houston on the other hand has been an extreme disappointment. They throw a pick six every game, fans are showing up to mock the quarterback at his home, and the stadium cheers when he gets hurt. Houston, we have a problem. Coming in at 2-4, the Texans arent even being competitive right now. There really isnt much more to say than the home team is the big favorite here. KC comes in as a touchdown fave, and I think that line is set just about right.
What a story we have in the Kansas City Chiefs. Philadelphia thought they were better off without Andy Reid as head coach, and we see how that is playing out. San Francisco let Alex Smith go in favor of Colin Kaepernick but that seems like it may have been a win win for both organizations. At 6-0, its not like the Chiefs are taking advantage of an easy schedule. With the exception of the one point win over the Dallas Cowboys, the Chiefs have pretty much been untested. Ranking 3rd in all of the NFL in pass defense, the Chiefs are making teams turn to their run game only. This is not letting the opposition score the points needed in order to win games. Along with a great pass defense, the KC run game itself is putting up good numbers. Averaging over 115 yards per game on the ground, led by Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs are taking a lot of the pressure off their quarterback, Alex Smith. Smith is now being able to manage games and make the throws when needed. The key to covering this spread for Kansas City is easy. D Up. The last four weeks have proven that the Houston Texans can be shaken up on the offensive side of the ball. They are only a game away from setting the all time Pick Six record. I like KCs chances of getting an easy win here.
Houston has been awful. There is no other way to put it, they are flat out putrid. The Texans came out of the gate at 2-0 and everyone thought they were on their way to a great season. Now they sit at 2-4, and its not like they are playing good and getting beat they look terrible. They blew a 20 point lead to the Seahawks, got killed by the 49ers by a score of 34-3, then came right back and lost to the Rams 38-13. Statistically, the Texans look good on paper. They have the top pass defense in all of the NFL, and they have a rushing attack led by Arian Foster that ranks in the top ten. It just doesnt add up but Houston is finding ways to lose. Turnovers, bad play-calling, and flat out choking, is what the story has been in the last four weeks. This team makes no sense to me. I think they have lost all confidence at this point. They need a big win, bad! To give Kansas City their first L of the season could revive this team, but to be honest, I am not so sure they can beat Kansas City. If the game were in Houston, I may have a little faith, but I just dont see this happening. The key however is this: DO NOT THROW A PICK SIX!! The Houston defense is good. The offense needs to let the defense do their thing without spotting the other team a 7 spot. If I am Gary Kubiak, I tell the quarterback that I would rather him be sacked 15 times than to throw a pick. Make KCs offense beat you, thats the key.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am going on pure numbers here. Houston cannot cover a spread to save their life. Kansas City is for real and will come into this game and put Houston away early in the 4th quarter. I see the Chiefs doing what everyone else has done to Houston in the last month, make them beat themselves. KC wins this game 28-17.