Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears ML Pick

by | Sep 30, 2020 | nfl

Indianapolis Colts (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, October 4th, 2020– 1:00 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field – Chicago, IL


Point Spread: IND -2.5 / CHI +2.5 (WagerWeb - HUGE 20 Point Teasers!)

Total: 45

Takeaways From Week Three

The Colts have perhaps created some distance from the memory of suffering an opening week upset against the Jacksonville Jaguars as they have disposed of their two successive opponents since then. Their most recent prey: the lowly New York Jets. Closing as a 12.5-point favorite, the Colts had no issue covering the number as they would lambast Gang Green by a tally of 36-7. Indianapolis has now won both of their victories this season by an average margin of 23 points.

Heroics and theatrics once again characterize the Chicago Bears as they staged another fourth-quarter comeback on the road for the second time in the last three weeks. This time, their assailed was the Atlanta Falcons, who have built up a track record for blowing leads. The Bears trailed by as much as fifteen points before Quarterback Nick Foles would lead them back to an incredulous 30-26 victory. The Bears would stage the outright upset closing as a 2.5-point underdog. Chicago has now won four games in a row dating back to the 2019 season. It is worth annotating that all of these contests were settled by a combined 14 points.

How the Public is Betting the Indianapolis-Chicago Game

At the present moment, the public seems divided on this contest as 52% of the consensus like the Bears here as the home underdog. In light of the public’s down-the-middle opinion, we have seen the Colts spot an additional point and a half from the open of this line. Initially, oddsmakers priced Indianapolis as a one-point favorite.

The Historical

Indianapolis and Chicago last met in 2016 in Indianapolis, where the Colts would win and cover as a four-point favorite in a 29-23 victory. In the last four meetings between both parties, which span 16 years, each team has won twice.

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Betting Trends

A notable betting trend in this contest is that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the previous five match-ups. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five bouts against a team with a winning record. Both of these further sell the appeal of Indy, potentially rendering them to be overvalued as a result.

Injury Concerns

Bears Running Back Tarik Cohen has been placed on the Injury Reserve after sustaining a season-ending ACL injury.

Why We Like Chicago to Cover

The number that Chicago is presently priced at can be the bait to play the favorite in this spot. Mirroring the trends that already raise an elevated stock in Indianapolis, the Colts may appear to be an easy wager here should they win by a field goal as that produces a cover. However, if anything, it suggests that the underdog in this contest has the full capability to stage an upset as the market itself is not confident in even granting Chicago said field goal. In addition to the aforementioned, let’s call it what it is here: Indianapolis lost outright in Week One to a team that almost all of the market pegged as an easy pick to beat in survivor pools (Jacksonville). Indianapolis would follow this up by feasting on cupcakes, but Chicago is the best team that the Colts will face season-to-date. Given the defensive acumen of this football team and the overall jolt that Nick Foles brings to this team, I am hard-pressed to buy into the Bears relinquishing that momentum on their own turf.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Chicago +120 Money Line

I am going to go for the gusto here and play this one outright. The fact that Chicago is priced as an underdog on its own field in this situation, quite frankly, is an insult. I can completely understand that the Bears have put together an undefeated campaign season-to-date through spit-wad and shoe-shine, but nevertheless, this team finds ways to win, even when it seems that the game is all but declared a win for the opposing side. In contrast to what we have seen in preceding weeks, the Bears will put together their most comprehensive and convincing win this week against an Indianapolis team that doesn’t simply have the credentials to be spotting road points. Give me the Bears on the Money Line.

Take the Bears +110 on the moneyline