Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Point Spread – Prediction Against the Spread 10/8/2015

Indianapolis Colts (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Thursday, October 8th, 8:25pm
Where: NRG Stadium Houston, Texas
TV: NFL Network
by Bob, NFL Handicapper,

Point Spread: IND +4 / HOU -4
Over/Under Total: 41

Thursday night prime time football, don’t you just love it? Yeah, me too. This week we have an AFC South game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. Both teams so far have had rather disappointing starts to the 2015 season but we are only headed into week five and anything can happen from here on out. The Colts head to Houston with a record of 2-2 after a close, overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars , while the Texans are 1-3 after being absolutely humiliated in the Georgia Dome by the Atlanta Falcons. I would not go as far to say this game is a must win for either team, but a loss could certainly make things difficult to make a playoff push in the end. It was finally announced that Andrew Luck will again miss his start in place of Matt Hasselbeck due to an injury. This news has majorly shifted the Vegas odds and public opinion for tonight.

The Houston Texans are now the favorite in this game due to the absence of Andrew Luck. Houston is favored by four points and the total points are set at 41 combined. So far this season, the Colts have not covered a spread. They are 0-4, while the Texans ATS record is the same as their real record, 1-3. At this time, 57% of the action is on the home fave to cover. On the total points, 59% say it stays under the 41 combined.

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The Colts enter tonight at 2-2 and somehow leading the AFC South division while the Texans sit just a game back at 1-3. Tonights winner would take over the division leadwell, the early division lead. As you already know, the Colts will go into this match up without Andrew Luck and will give the keys to Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck led the Colts just last week to a 16-13 overtime win over the Jaguars. Doesnt sound too impressive but hey, it is a win, and the Colts have not had much luck in that area this yearno pun intended. Last week, Hasselbeck put the ball in the air a staggering 47 times. That is a lot of pass attempts for a back up, but this isnt your typical back up, the kid played in a Super Bowl. He is legit and has the ability to still make plays. With his 47 attempts, he threw for 282 yards and touchdown. This again is not too impressive, but he did not turn the ball over which in most cases in a win for a back up. This weeks key will be to take a page out of the Atlanta Falcons playbook from this past Sunday. Get the run game going and make plays on defense against Houston. The whole NFL knows that the Texans have major issues at quarterback and they are giving Ryan Mallett the nod again. If the Colts can pressure Mallett, it could be a long night and the Colts could find themselves over .500 for the first time this season.

Houston is a mess. Did you see their game last week? I always thought they would play solid defense and have some minor offensive issues. They looked bad on both sides of the ball. The Falcons pretty much dictated the entire game from the start. The Texans had some success late in the game once Mallett was pulled for Brian Hoyer, but by that time it was already 42-0 Atlanta and the Falcons had called it a day. I still think the Texans are better off with Hoyer at quarterback, but obviously coach, Bill OBrien sees something in Ryan Mallett that no one else does. To get this win, the Texans defense needs to stand tall. When you have a defense that is anchored by J.J. Watt, Jadaveon Clowney, and Brian Cushing, there is no excuse in allowing as many points as they have, even if the offense is bad. So far this year, the Texans have given up 27, 24, 19, and 48. Of course other than the 48, which 13 of those were due to the offense turning the ball over, the numbers are not awful, but these guys need to make plays. Give Mallett and the offense a chance to get the ball with good field position. Keeping the score low will be key as well. The Texans probably will not score anymore than 17-20, so they must keep the Colts out of the end zone.

In my opinion, this game is very easy to pick, which scares me. I do not see the Texans winning this game, I just dont. I see a low scoring, ugly, defensive battle. I am going to fade the public bettors and lay my dough on the Colts. Indy wins this game 20-17.


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