Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Recommended Spread Bet

by | Nov 3, 2022 | nfl

Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, November 6, 1 p.m.

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: IND +5.5/NE -5.5 (MyBookie – Offers Predictem readers a SPECIAL 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $300 when you use bonus code PREDICT100)

Total: O/U 39.5

Outlook

The Colts sure haven’t made this easy on new quarterback Sam Ehlinger, as the second start of his career comes against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. Of course, these Patriots are nowhere near as good as in years past, as they sit in last place in the AFC East after eight games, but they have won three of four and certainly still know how to confuse a young quarterback. That’s exactly what the Patriots did to the New York Jets last time out, as they pulled out a 22-17 win to avoid falling completely out of the race.

Indianapolis might already be out of it, as the Colts are a mere 3-4-1, with Tennessee sitting two games ahead and owning the tiebreaker. The Colts have essentially waved the white flag on the season by switching to Ehlinger and firing offensive coordinator Marcus Brady, which seems like putting a bandage on a massively bleeding wound. What ails Indianapolis is its offensive line, which isn’t going o get fixed by firing a guy who has nothing to do with the line. The Colts’ problem is that they have been turnover machines and can’t run the football, which is not exactly a good combination when facing New England.

How the Public is Betting the Indianapolis/New England Game

The public is riding with the Patriots, but the money is coming in on the Colts. Despite 61% of tickets coming in on New England, the spread has dropped from -6 to -5.5. The total has not changed.

Injury Concerns

Indianapolis:

Safety Trevor Denbow (ankle), tackle Dennis Kelly (calf), cornerback Stephon Gilmore (ribs), running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle), safety Trevor Denbow (ankle), center Ryan Kelly (knee), linebacker Grant Stuard (pectoral) and defensive end Kwity Paye (ankle) are questionable. Quarterback Matt Ryan (shoulder), defensive end Tyquan Lewis (knee), wide receiver Ashton Dulin (foot), safety Armani Watts (ankle), punter Rigoberto Sanchez (Achilles), tight end Andrew Ogletree (knee) and tackle Carter O’Donnell (undisclosed) are out.

New England:
Defensive lineman Deatrich Wise Jr. (ankle), linebacker Josh Uche (hamstring), running back Pierre Strong Jr. (hamstring), wide receiver Matthew Slater (hamstring), defensive back Adrian Phillips (shoulder), running back Damien Harris (illness), defensive lineman Christian Barmore (knee), cornerback Shaun Wade (illness), center David Andrews (concussion), defensive back Kyle Dugger (ankle) and wide receiver Devante Parker (knee) are questionable. Offensive lineman Chasen Hines (undisclosed), defensive back Cody Davis (knee), quarterback Brian Hoyer (head), wide receiver Ty Montgomery (knee), wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson (concussion), offensive lineman Andrew Steuber (hamstring), linebacker Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed) and cornerback JoeJuan Williams (shoulder) are out.

When Indianapolis Has the Ball

The Colts are in a tight spot in that they’re very limited by what they can do thanks to their personnel. Indianapolis is letting Sam Ehlinger learn on the fly, which isn’t working out all that well to this point. Ehlinger is showing some signs of being the long-term solution for the Colts, but the bettors aren’t really concerned about his long-term potential. All that matters from our perspective is what he is today, and right now, he’s going to make more plays with his legs than his arm.

Against Washington, he did enough to give the Colts a chance to win the game but not enough to actually get them over the hump. Indianapolis didn’t ask Ehlinger to do too much, nor did he do enough to win the game. With the Colts operating behind a patchwork offensive line, there’s not really a lot that Indianapolis can do on the ground, especially with Jonathan Taylor banged up and possibly unable to play. Indianapolis is going to have to come up with something to put points on the board, especially with the Patriots likely to drop players into coverage and force Ehlinger to throw.

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When New England Has the Ball

Bill Belichick seems determined to win or lose with Mac Jones, which means that the Patriots aren’t quite as dangerous as they should be on offense. The Pats keep getting subpar numbers out of Jones, which puts a lot of pressure on the defense and ground game to produce and offset his growing pains. On the one hand, it does make some sense for Belichick to push for his guy to learn and grow, but on the other, Bailey Zappe has been the better quarterback and looks like he gives New England its best chance to win.

With Jones in the game, the Patriots are really limited as to what they can do to hurt their opponents. New England runs the ball decently with Rhamondre Stevenson, but that’s about all that they really do well. Against a Colts’ defense that really stops the pass, don’t look for Jones to take many chances.

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Betting Trends

It’s a safe bet that the Colts don’t miss the days when they had to go to New England every season. Indianapolis has failed to cover in four straight trips to Foxboro and is 2-5 ATS in its past seven matchups. Plus, the Colts just don’t score points these days, as the under has cashed in 10 of 11 matchups with AFC opponents.

New England doesn’t always score a lot of points, but the Patriots’ offense has looked stronger at home. New England has hit the over in eight of its past nine home games, and the one exception wasn’t the fault of their offense; the Under cashed only because Detroit couldn’t score a point against the New England defense.

Weather Report

The wind could cause some problems. Wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour are possible, with conditions otherwise ideal. Temperatures will sit at 74 degrees with no rain.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The tough part of this one is whether New England will do enough to cover this spread. The Patriots have the advantage because they can force Ehlinger to make plays with his arm, and the young signal-caller hasn’t yet had to read a good defense. The Patriots tend to score a home, so I will roll with them in this matchup. Bet your NFL picks at the Sportsbook that has the fastest payouts on the web! —> Betonline!

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