Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pick 11/3/19

Indianapolis Colts (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS)
NFL Football Week 9
Date/Time: Sunday – November 3rd – 1:00pm EST
Where: Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
TV: CBS

Point Spread: IND -1 / PITT +1 (Bookmaker)
Over/Under Total: 43

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AND PITTSBURGH STEELERS AFC MATCHUP:

This Sunday in Pittsburgh, we have an AFC showdown with two team who are hoping to make a push to the playoffs come January. The Pittsburgh Steelers who sit at 3-4 on the season play host to the surprising 5-2 Indianapolis Colts. Pittsburgh who half way through the season is on the outside looking in at the playoffs sit in second place in the AFC North behind the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens. A win over the Colts at home and a Baltimore loss to the Patriots on Sunday could make things very interesting in the division race.

The Colts who are leading the AFC South with a 5-2 record have been a major surprise this season. When Andrew Luck retired out of nowhere before the regular season began, many, including myself, thought they were doomed. Not to take shots at new starting QB, Jacoby Brissett, but I just did not see this coming…hell, I wonder if Brissett himself saw it coming. Through the first half of the season, Brissett has been pretty damn good. He has a passing completion percentage of 64% and has thrown 14 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. Great numbers. Another thing helping the Colts stand pat in 2019 though has been the play of their run game which is averaging 128 yards per game. With Marlon Mack leading the way, the success of the run game has helped take a lot of pressure off Brissett allowing him to be more comfortable in the pocket.

Although the Colts have a better record and appear to be a better team on paper, they will head into Heinz Field as just a one point favorite on the road over the Steelers. Pittsburgh is a tough place to play so I could definitely see this game going either way.

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HOW THE PUBLIC IS BETTING THE INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURGH GAME:

With the spread being just a one point line, the betting public is all over the Colts on the road. 61% of the betting action likes Indy while just 39% of the degenerates think the Steelers will cover at home. This is a prime example of the public giving too much value to a team with a better record…and taking too much away from a team who just had a sloppy win like the Steelers did against Miami. Not only do I have my gut feeling in this one, I also like to fade the public when I see such wide ranges in the betting action. The line has not moved and with that much action on Indy, they should be favored by at least three points….Trust me, Vegas WANTS the money on the favorite here. Listen, as much as I think…well…as much as I know the Colts are the better team, this is just one of those games where the home field advantage could just be too much. I like Pittsburgh, and I will explain why.

WHY THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD ON SUNDAY:

Heinz Field is a tough place to play. The Steeler Nation knows that at this point in the season every game is a must win in order to make the playoffs. Not only do the fans feel the Steelers are a playoff bound team, they also view this as a very winnable game. Yes, the Colts have looked good with their 5-2 record, but who have they really beaten? The Falcons? The Titans? Big deal…okay yeah, they did take down the Kansas City Chiefs but that was just an odd game. The Colt are good, don’t get me wrong but I think the home crowd, the outside weather, and the must win attitude from Pittsburgh will be too much come Sunday.

This Sunday, the Steelers plan will be to focus on the run game and force Jacoby Brissett to make plays with his arm. Pittsburgh is pretty average statistically when it comes to defense this season, but I have faith a game plan will be put in place to limit the yards of Marlon Mack. I think this game stays rather low scoring at least early. The Steelers will end up making enough plays on both offense and defense late in the fourth quarter to stun the Colts by a score of 23-21. This will be a good game and this could even be a potential playoff preview game but this Sunday, I just have to go with the home team…and fade the betting public.

Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Pittsburgh Steelers at home plus the one point against the Indianapolis Colts