Indianapolis Colts (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (3-2 SU 3-2 ATS) Week 6 NFL Football, FedEx Field, Landover, MD 8:20 PM EST Sunday Night Football, October 17, 2010 on NBC
by Jason Green of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Indy -3/Wash +3
Over/Under Total: 43.5
This Sunday night in a non-conference match up between a couple of teams that are in 1st place in their respective divisions the Washington Redskins host the Indianapolis Colts.
The Redskins have played well this season, but their one main weakness has been defending the pass. That is not good with Peyton Manning visiting the Nation’s Capital this Sunday, but Washington has beat Dallas and Green Bay this season with Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers, who both rank in the top 10 in the league in passing yards. Basically, the Skins are giving up a ton of yards in the air and their rushing offense has struggled, but they are still finding ways to win.
Indianapolis is in a 4-way tie for 1st place in the AFC South, as every team in the tough division is 3-2. Manning has had to do it all this season for the Colts, as the rushing offense ranks 28th in the league and RB Joseph Addai is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
There’s no place like home? Well, maybe not for the Skins, as in their last 17 games at home they have only covered the spread 5 times. That does not bode well for Washington since Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games where they are the favorite.
In their last games the Redskins beat the GreenBay Packers 16-13 in OT and the Colts beat the Kansas City Chiefs 19-9.
Peyton Manning has the 3rd most passing yards this season, is the 2nd highest rated QB, and is tied with Phillip Rivers of San Diego for the most TD’s (11). However, even though he did pass for 244 yards in the win over Kansas City he did not have a TD and he threw one pick. He will put up big numbers against a Washington pass defense that is giving up 298 yards per game in the air, but the Skins will keep him from getting to the end zone often like they did against Aaron Rodgers last week.
The Colts rushed for 97 yards last week and this week their struggling rushing offense will be facing a Washington run defense that has been mediocre so far this season. Last week the Redskins gave up 157 rushing yards, but most of that total came on a 71-yard run in the 1st quarter. Their D came up big stuffing the run in the 2nd half and in this game they will not allow Addai or the Colts to run the ball.
Washington ranks 7th in the league in passing yards per game led by QB Donovan McNabb, who was solid in the win over Green Bay going 26/49 for 357 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He had so many pass attempts because the rushing offense was ineffective and only picked up 51 yards on the ground. McNabb will have another good game, but he will not put up the numbers like he did against Green Bay.
Redskins’ head coach Mike Shanahan likes to run the ball and even though Washington could not do so last week he will call the run often in this game facing a Colts’ rushing defense that ranks 29th in the league. Skins’ RB Ryan Torain struggled last week, but he will play well in this game and the Skins will go over 100 yards on the ground.
Last week the Redskins punted on 7 of their first 8 possessions, but with Torain running the ball well that will not happen again and the Skins will score some points early on in this game.
In some other betting trends for this game Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and has an Under record of 13-5 in their last 10 home games. Indianapolis is 7-1-1 ATS against teams with a winning record and has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I think the Redskins’ defense will come up with big plays when it matters, as they are rolling and got a huge boost with the win last week. Manning will have a good game, but so will McNabb and Torain, as I am taking the Skins to upset the Colts at home and win this game.