Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date/Time: December 6, 2015 1:00PM EST
Where: LP Field Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN.
TV: CBS
by Rich Crew, Professional Handicapper
Point Spread: JAX +2/TEN -2
Over/Under Total: 43
The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to Tennessee to take on their divisional foe Titans. This AFC South match is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 PM on LP Field at Nissan Stadium. The betting line on the Jags at Titans Week 13 game opened at pickem on the point spread line , but has moved to Tennessee -2 with the total line opened at 43 as has held that number.
The Jacksonville Jaguars shocked many with their 31-25 loss to the visiting Chargers in Week 12 breaking off their mini two game win streak. They moved the ball okay against San Diego and out yarded the visitors 420-369 on the day, but struggled to get into the end zone with their first four scoring drives resulting in a field goal. Theyll head back on the road where they are 1-4 on the season with the win coming at Baltimore in their last game as the visitor 22-20.
The Tennessee Titans will try once again to get a home winsomething they have not been able to do this season going 0-6 as a host. In fact, the Titans have lost 11 in a row at LP Field dating back to the 2014 season. Tennessees rookie QB Marcus Mariota has three games with multiple interceptions and they all came at home which hasnt helped the cause. One of those games came last week against Oakland, but he did toss three TD passes after being shut out of that category in his previous two matches. However, Mariotas QB rating in the Raider game was 69.4, his poorest number since the Miami game in Week 6.
Leading the offensive attack for the Jaguars is QB Blake Bortles who is completing 57% of his passes this season with 22 TDs and 13 INTs. He may be short one of his top two pass catchers this Week as WR Allen Hurns is dealing with a concussion. Bortles will still have leading receiver WR Allen Robinson who has caught 55 of his 109 targets for 927 yards and 8 TDs. TE Julius Thomas will have to pick up the slack and hes starting to click with his QB picking up 9 catches on 10 targets for 116 yards last week against the Chargers. In the backfield RB TJ Yeldon gets the lions share of the carries and leads the team with 621 yards on 4 YPC. He may be up against it versus the Titans who held him to 54 yards in their earlier meeting back in Week 11.
Tennessees rookie QB Mariota I discussed earlier, so I’ll just add this. It was good seeing him get three TD passes, but he needs to limit the mistakes that have now seen him commit 11 turnovers on the season (7INTs and 4 lost fumbles). RB Antonio Andrews has taken over the backfield duties from an underperforming Bishop Shankey, but his output last week was disappointing with 32 yards on 11 carries against Oakland. He should find the running easier against the Jags who he ran for 78 yards (5.2 YPC) on in their earlier meeting. The wide outs for the Titans had poor numbers last week, but Kendall Wright was returning from an injury and wasnt 100% and Dorial Green-Beckham caught just one of 5 targets. Leading receiver TE Delanie Walker had a good day with six catches for 91 yards to lead the team. He should lead the way again in Week 13 against Jacksonville whose road pass defense is ranked 24th in the league allowing 273.4 yards per game.
The betting numbers show that Jacksonville is 6-5 versus the point spread overall, but a decent 3-2 on the road while the OVER has been a profitable 7-4 in their 11 games this season. The Titans have been padding or crushing your bankroll depending if you are playing or fading with their 4-7 ATS mark this season including a three game point spread losing streak. At home the Titans as mentioned have gone 0-6 and against the number a not much better 1-5 getting the cover in their first home game. The Titans will be in the favorite role for just the second time this year and they were on the losing end of a 38-10 beating at the hands of the Dolphins on this field as a -2.5 point fav.
These two teams met in Week 11 at Jacksonville on a Thursday night making it a short week of preparation which usually results in a more vanilla offense. Thats exactly what happened with both clubs barely topping 300 yards and 32 total points being scored. This time around theyll be using their full playbook which should result in a big increase in points. Jacksonville scored two TDs late in the 19-13 victory which may be a sign of things to come. Tennessee has been terrible in red zone defense over their first 12 games allowing a league worst 67.57 TD percentage. On the other side of the equation Mariota et al has led the Titans offense to a very good 62.07 red zone TD percentage and that matches up well with the Jaguars 58.82% mark in this stats.
To me this game has the OVER written all over it. The Jags will be facing a low level pass defense that can get after the QB with 32 sacks this season, but theyve allowed a high number of TD passes (20) while facing on the whole a below average group of QBs. The Jaguars are banged up on defense and it showed on the field against the Chargers who were working with an offensive line that was decimated by injuries and seemed to move down the field with little resistance in the last three quarters of the game hanging 31 points on the board. I also like the Titans in this spot who are certainly worth a small play laying less than a field goal.
Crews Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Play on the OVER 43
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