Jacksonville Jaguars(1-5SU,3-3ATS) vs.Green Bay Packers(4-3SU,3-4ATS)
Date/Time:Sunday, October 28, 1pm ET
byEvergreen,Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:Jax +12/GB -12
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and two teams on divergent paths are set to meet Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers.With many apologies to Robert Frost, the divergent road analogy works here as the Jags look to be heading toward the worst record in the league while the Packers have turned their offense around and are looking like the Superbowl contenders that they were expected to be.
The online betting sites have just started to leak some early lines out there as of Tuesday but it looks like the Packers at -10 to -12 will be the most common opening line.The over/under totals are sparse as well but 46.5 or 47 seems to be where the sportsbooks will settle.That information is most likely late due to a series of major injuries that have both teams scrambling to fill starting roster spots.Maurice Jones-Drew is out for Sunday and Blaine Gabbert is being evaluated on Tuesday for a non-throwing shoulder injury so the Jaguar offense is completely up in the air at this point.Green Bay has just learned that Charles Woodson will miss the next six weeks and that adds to the injury woes on a defense that will likely be without B.J. Raji, Nick Perry and Sam Shields.As these injury situations solidify, the point spread information will clear up as well.
Jacksonville fans werent anticipating a playoff run out of their team this year but I doubt they were expecting a 1-5 start with little to be hopeful about after six weeks.The Jags have lost twice in overtime by three but their remaining three losses were by an average of 25 points and neither side of the ball is performing.The Jaguar offense is dead last in passing and total yards gained as well as points scored, averaging just 14.7 per contest.The defense is outside the top-25 in every meaningful category and now faces one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.
Green Bay looks like they have found something that can produce their success from last year in wins against the Texans and Rams and now head back home in hopes of hanging with the division leading Bears.The loss of Cedric Benson looked like it might really hurt what the Packers were going to do offensively but Aaron Rodgers has stepped up his play, throwing for 680 yards and 9 touchdowns in the last two weeks alone.The Packers defense will certainly need to get out the duct tape to find a solution to the injuries but a pretty inept Jag offense will help that cause at least for this week.
Chad Henne will take the helm if Gabbert is not cleared to play and that is probably a wash for this game but the MJD injury is a killer for the Jags.Jones-Drew was the straw that stirred the drink in Jacksonville and his absence leaves an already struggling offense without a true playmaker.Rashad Jennings is a capable runner but is far less dynamic and may be taken out of this game early if the Packers get out fast.Cecil Shorts has been a match-up problem for defenses at times this year but one man is usually able to be taken away by an opposing scheme.The best case scenario for Jacksonville is to manage the clock through the run and short passing game and hope to force a turnover or two with some pressure on Rodgers.
The Packers seem to be comfortable throwing the ball a ton, especially early and they should be with an MVP at quarterback.Green Bay will run just to keep the defense honest but Jordy Nelson, James Jones and now Randall Cobb make up a very dangerous set of options for Rodgers.Greg Jennings is still limited and questionable with a groin injury but the Pack doesnt appear to be in need of another pass catcher to win this week.
Green Bay has shown the ability to play down to their competition but it doesnt look like either the Jaguar offense or defense should give the Pack anything to worry about in Lambeau where they have won 13 of their last 18 against the spread.Short of this one being played in a monsoon, I cant see a scenario where the Jaguars make this one close.Id give the Packers an 80% chance of reaching 30, and that leaves the Jags staring another blowout in the face as they will be hard pressed to put up anything more than two touchdowns.5Dimes opened this game with the Packers as 10-point favorites and if you can find that line, jump on it.Green Bay 33 Jacksonville 13
EvergreensPick to Cover the Point Spread:Green Bay.
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