Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 20, 2026
4:05 PM ET, Empower Field at Mile High
Denver is a 2.5-point home favorite over Jacksonville with a total of 44.5. My play is the Jaguars getting the points.
Both teams’ Week 1 performances tell you exactly what to expect Sunday. Jacksonville dominated Cleveland 34-10 in a home game where Trevor Lawrence looked completely comfortable in Liam Coen’s second-year system. The offense moved the ball consistently, the defense forced Deshaun Watson into constant pressure, and the Jaguars’ rebuilt roster showed exactly why the market has been steadily upgrading their expectations all offseason.
Denver’s Week 1 was the opposite. The Broncos got beaten 31-10 by the Chiefs at Arrowhead and produced just 176 total yards. That’s an abysmal offensive performance for a team that was supposed to be a contender. Bo Nix couldn’t get anything going, the offensive line struggled with pass protection, and the Broncos’ defense — while still elite in some categories — had major issues with missed tackles all game. Losing outright as a favorite the way Denver did in Week 1 is a serious concern.
Now consider the head-to-head history. Jacksonville went into Empower Field at Mile High in Week 16 of last year and won 34-20. Trevor Lawrence threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns. The Jaguars had 22 first downs and went 4-for-5 in the red zone. That’s a specific matchup where Lawrence’s mobility and Coen’s scheme found consistent success against Denver’s defensive front. That template is still available in 2026.
The 2026 Jaguars offense actually looks better than the 2025 version. Coen’s second-year system is now fully installed, Lawrence has more command of the offense, and the receiving group has real weapons. Against a Broncos defense that has real issues with tackling and pass protection — issues that showed up in Week 1 — Jacksonville should be able to hit 21-24 points fairly easily.
Denver’s home crowd will be desperate for a win, and the Broncos will play hard. But the specific structural issues from Week 1 — pass protection, tackling, offensive rhythm — don’t fix in one week. Bo Nix will need time to get comfortable, and Payton will need to make adjustments to the offensive line. Neither of those things happens with a five-day turnaround.
The 2.5-point spread requires Denver to win by 3+ points. Given how badly the Broncos played in Week 1, how well Jacksonville played, and Lawrence’s specific track record against Denver, that’s asking a lot. Realistic outcomes: Broncos 20, Jaguars 17 (3-point margin, Jaguars cover +2.5); Jaguars 24, Broncos 21 (Jaguars win outright, cover); Broncos 24, Jaguars 21 (3-point margin, covers by 0.5); or Broncos 27, Jaguars 20 (7-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Jacksonville, and given the Week 1 performance differential between these two teams, that outcome distribution looks right.
The Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
