Jaguars vs. Chargers Week 3 Value Pick

by | Last updated Sep 22, 2022 | nfl

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Week 3 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 4:05PM EDT

Where: Sofi Stadium, Inglewood, California


Point Spread: JAC+7/LAC -7 (Bovada – 50% bonus! Rebates on ALL your bets win or lose! FAST crypto payouts! Loyalty rewards program that earns you free bets!)

Over/Under Total: 47.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday at Sofi Stadium in an AFC battle. It didn’t work out for the Chargers at Arrowhead last Thursday, losing to the Chiefs, 27-24. They get the long week to prepare for the Jags and are at home. But an easy win over Jacksonville might not be the cinch it has been in recent seasons. On Sunday, the Jags served notice with a 24-0 shutout win over the Colts that they might not be the same doormats they’ve been. There are a lot of dots to connect in this one, so let’s get started breaking it down!

The Justin Herbert Conundrum

A rib injury sustained on Thursday has put Justin Herbert’s status in doubt for this game. In his favor is a long week to get ready and any number of different measures the training staff can take to numb his pain. But for potential backers of the Chargers this week, you’re taking a bit of a leap of faith in getting behind the Bolts this week laying points. If Herbert is compromised and can’t make the best use of his aerial weapons, that puts a big crimp into this offense. And if he can’t start, it won’t feel particularly good laying a TD with QB Chase Daniel behind center. Combine that with the notion that the Jags could me more dangerous this season, making it a real issue. Not that Colts look good to start the season, but a shutout win for Jacksonville raises the question of whether a diminished Chargers’ offense can take flight against this group.

Fargo's NFL Thursday Star Attraction (3-0 L3)

Enhancements Made in Jacksonville

We’ve seen coach Doug Pederson get more out of young groups before, and perhaps some of that handiwork is already starting to pay off. With a blue-chipper like QB Trevor Lawrence, it was just a matter of time before things started to click, and some improved weapons have also brought that about, with Christian Kirk off to a fast start in this offense, Zay Jones showing a good connection with Lawrence, and TE Evan Engram giving them a little boost at that position and an additional realistic option. Travis Etienne joins James Robinson in the backfield, giving their run game another dimension. And with Marvin Jones still there, it’s not an altogether bad group. When taking on teams with a lot at their disposal, like the Chargers, you need to have some horses who can keep pace.

The Jacksonville “D” didn’t look that good in week one, but the Commanders’ offense can do a lot of aerial damage. They got it together the following week against Indy, holding Jonathan Taylor to very little while keeping the entire Colts offense in stitches. They have some holes in a defense populated largely by unproven youngsters with enough potential to make it, so you can’t really count on anything. With Josh Allen and a playmaking middle, along with what seems to be an improved run-stop through two weeks, one shouldn’t be surprised if they provide a little more resistance and make more plays than what you anticipated.

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Matchup Advantages for the Bolts

This will be a good litmus test for a Jacksonville offense to see how they can fare against a more-complete defense with gunners in all areas. They will face a mean pass-rush, with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack looking to get after Lawrence. They might struggle running the ball well against this Chargers’ front. And while Lawrence has what appears to be vastly-improved weaponry, they’re hardly the automatic aerial force that can be relied upon to exploit a Chargers’ secondary that is packed with star-power and big-play ability. Taking it to the Colts isn’t like taking it to the Bolts, as things will get harder this week for the Jags.

After getting victimized by Carson Wentz, the Jaguars got it together against a Colts offense that has been one of the biggest disappointments in the league through two weeks. Their defense’s best hopes in this contest are that Herbert is either out or heavily compromised, reduced to making little dump-offs and pecking and poking his way through the game. The one caveat is that the Jags have been good against the run, and the Bolts haven’t gotten that part of their game rolling yet. And with the passing game a question mark with the status of Herbert, not to mention Keenan Allen, who is iffy, maybe this is a spot where an unproven Jacksonville defense can surprise some people. In other words, under ideal circumstances, it might not be so hard to picture a thorough Chargers beating here. But throw in the improvements made by the Jags and the compromised nature of the Chargers, and the dynamics of the equation change quite a bit.

Take the Points

Maybe in a different place and a different time, I’d feel more comfortable laying a TD with this Chargers team. But between their injury concerns, along with what has been a longtime franchise tendency to play down to their competition, the Jags loom as a team that might be harder to put away than some assume this week. And even if too much stock is being placed on a win over a Colts team that looks pretty shabby, there is still a palpable lift in the Jaguars’ form and spirits this season. I see the Chargers being a little off-key as the Jaguars hang in there and get out of SoFi with the cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Jaguars in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 7 points. You can make the Jags a +26 underdog by placing them into a HUGE 19 point NFL teaser only offered at Wagerweb Sportsbook!