Jaguars vs. Dolphins Pick: Betting The Under
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10 SU, 4-8-2 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday December 23rd, 2018. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, F.L.
By Jay Horne, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: JAX +4/MIA -4
Over/Under Total: 39
The Miami Dolphins will have the privilege of hosting the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Despite a blowout loss to the Vikings last week, the Dolphins (7-7 SU) are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Simply put, Miami needs to win out and get some help for an opportunity to make a postseason appearance. In what seems to be a bounce back spot for Miami, the Dolphins will be 4 point favorites against a Jaguars team that has now lost 9 of their last 10 games in the midst of a complete offensive meltdown.
Jacksonville benching Blake Bortles again
The Jaguars are currently in the midst of one of the most underwhelming offensive stretches in franchise history. In the last 3 games, the team has averaged just 219 total yards and 9.3 points per game. Things have been so bad that Head Coach Doug Marrone benched long time starter Blake Bortles to give Cody Kessler a chance. After that experiment failed, Bortles was pushed back into the starting role. As recently as Monday, Marrone announced the team will once again bench Bortles in favor of Kessler. Marrone further stated that the team would make an effort to commit to Kessler for the rest of the season.
I am probably not the only one thinking that both quarterbacks are awful. Perhaps after watching Bortles continue to disappoint year after year, Kessler presents the biggest upside. Either way, I don’t see the quarterback change causing any significant changes to the pace of this offense. Additionally, running back Leonard Fournette is back on the injury report. Fournette has been on the injury report more than he has been on the field this year which definitely does not help the offensive concerns. The latest setback is a foot injury that will reportedly have Fournette limited in week 16. Expect T.J Yeldon and Dave Williams to get the rest of the action out of the Jacksonville backfield.
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Upset Alert – Miami Dolphins
At first glance, this seems like an obvious bounce back spot for the Dolphins following a big loss against a Jaguars team that has lost 9 of the last 10 games. However, I think the Dolphins are on upset alert mainly because the match-up is not favoring. Despite Jacksonville’s offensive woes, their defense is still really good. Furthermore, the Dolphins are not exactly an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. The Dolphins have struggled often on the offensive side of the football and are facing some uphill challenges going into week 16.
Injury Update – Frank Gore (Out)
Miami starting running back Frank Gore suffered a foot injury in the loss to the Vikings this week. While Miami has not officially listed the details of the injury, Gore is listed as out for this Sunday’s game against the Jaguars and may easily miss week 17. Initially, I thought this news may have been a blessing in disguise for Miami because I have long considered Kenyan Drake the better tailback. However, Head Coach Adam Gase proved last week that despite the injury, Drake is still not the perceived playmaker that he showed throughout the end of 2017. Instead of Drake stepping into the lead back role, the Dolphins turned to rookie Kalen Ballage in the ground game. Ballage helped his cause by breaking off a 75 yard touchdown run and racking up 123 yards on just 12 carries. As a result, Ballage is possibly the guy that will get most of the work again on Sunday.
Jaguars vs. Dolphins betting trends
Jacksonville has been one of the worst betting teams in sports over the last several weeks. The Jaguars are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games including a mark of 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Miami is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home. Meanwhile, the Jaguars and Dolphins have hit the ‘under’ in 5 of their last 6 meetings.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I would not be surprised to see a baseball score unfold in this game. I have absolutely zero confidence in either offense in a match-up that heavily favors both defenses. Take the under 39!