Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Pick ATS
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NFL Week 6
When: Monday, October 19 at 5 pm ET
Where: Bills Stadium - Buffalo, NY
Point Spread: KC -3.5/BUF +3.5 (Sportsbetting.ag - Awesome Live Betting Platform!)
Over/Under Total: 57.5
At some point last week, most would have thought this NFL Week 6 clash between Kansas City and Buffalo would be a showdown between two 5-0 teams. Both squads had made it through the first four weeks without a blemish, but both tasted defeat in Week 5. The loser this week is still in good shape, but all of a sudden backsliding into Wild Card territory, and with potential schedule shake-ups ahead, wins in the bank are more valuable than anything else. Buffalo is in an odd spot as they are playing a Monday Night game but still on a short week after playing Tennessee on Tuesday night this past week. Today’s NFL players are used to getting ready in short windows but playing the defending NFL champs is a challenge you want more time to prepare for, not less.
Kansas City comes into this week riding some strong ATS trends, including an 8-1 mark against the spread in their last nine games against an opponent with a record above .500 and six ATS wins in their previous seven games on Monday Night. Buffalo is somewhat on the other side of the coin as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as the home underdog, but they have also been good against quality opponents with six ATS wins in their last nine against teams with a winning record. Both teams have been good at bouncing back, with the Chiefs riding a 4-0 ATS streak the week after failing to cover the spread and the Bills are 5-2 ATS in the same scenario. Despite an offense that has routinely been elite, Kansas City has seen the Under hit in each of their last five road contests as well as four of the previous five MNF games. The Under is 5-2 in the last seven when Buffalo is a home dog. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the last ten against KC, but the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine between these teams, although that trend is a bit dated considering this is the first matchup between these two since 2017. As we enter the midweek betting period, KC is seeing about 61% of the public money, with 66% of the public on the Over.
Bump in the Road?
Kansas City has been one of the best teams to bet on for more than a season now, making their straight-up loss as 11-point favorites last week all the more puzzling. They cruised to a 16-point win the week prior as the same 11-point faves in a game against the Pats that actually looked a bit more like a trap, but the bubble was bound to burst at some point. The work begins to start a new streak of success, and it helps to have Patrick Mahomes in place to do just that. Mahomes is piloting the 4th best passing offense in 2020 and has thrown for 13 scores against one lone interception. He enters this contest with a 107 QBR rating and has added two touchdowns on the ground, and has the Chiefs averaging 29.8 points per game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t been as flashy as he was in Week 1 but is steady at 4.2 yards per carry and is alive in the passing game as well with 17 receptions. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill remain the significant play threats, with the duo accounting for 769 yards and seven scores already. Mecole Hardman (14.9 yards per catch) should see some more chances this week with Sammy Watkins likely out with a bad hamstring. KC has done a good job of keeping Mahomes upright, giving up just six sacks through five weeks, and their 52% conversion rate on third down ranks 3rd in the league. Watch that down in particular as Buffalo is 30th in third-down defense, allowing conversions on 51% of opponent attempts. The Chiefs defense has been weak against the run, allowing five yards per rush, but they improve against the pass and enter the week sixth in passing yards allowed. Their eight takeaways are good for sixth as well, and they have held QBs to an average rating of 83, the fifth-best mark in the league. That defense will be without CB L’Jarius Sneed, who leads the team with two interceptions.
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Getting pushed around is challenging for any NFL team to recover from immediately, but that is what Buffalo is facing after dropping a 42-16 decision to Tennessee. What makes that result even more strange is that the Titans weren’t able to go through a regular prep with their facilities shut down. Maybe the Bills just burn the tape and forget about last week, but that lopsided result puts Buffalo in a spot where they are allowing more points (28.4) than they are scoring (27.8), and that isn’t something you usually see with a winning team. Their four wins have come by an average of just 5.7 points per game, so their underwater points situation doesn’t exactly spell doom, but they clearly have some things to clean up, including their minus-two turnover differential. Kansas City is plus-five for comparison. Josh Allen has entered himself in the MVP race by completing nearly 70% of his passes and racking up a 113 rating while throwing for fourteen touchdowns with three more scores on the ground. He has needed to be that dynamic considering the Bills are 28th in rushing offense. Devin Singletary has looked good in spots, but the consistent production is not there, and he is currently averaging 3.9 yards per carry with one score on the season. He may see some holes this week against that leaky KC run defense, and Zack Moss is nearing a return to the backfield after battling a toe injury. Stefon Diggs (36-509-2) leads the team in catches and yards with Cole Beasley on pace for 1,000 receiving yards, but the Bills receiving game is most impressive in their ability to spread it around as ten different receivers have caught a touchdown pass. John Brown may be forced to miss this game as he deals with a calf issue.
Take the Chiefs
I make some reference to the history of blind betting home dogs every season, but the point needs to be brought up as the tide has mostly turned on that trend as the sportsbooks have wised up. In 2020, the home dog is 11-13 against the spread even as the underdogs, in general, have a 40-37 overall ATS record. Watching Buffalo allow 42 points to Tennessee does not inspire confidence that they are going to limit Kansas City’s offense and the Bills likely have a newly motivated and probably ticked off opponent that is looking to take out some frustration. KC is holding on to the ball while Buffalo is giving it away, and opposing quarterbacks have averaged a 103 rating against the Bills. That gives Mahomes every opportunity to control this game, which can’t be a good thing for Buffalo’s chances. I think the contest does stay close after some early back-and-forth, but KC pulls out a relatively easy win with the Bills scoring late to make it a 30-24 margin.
Ted Walker’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Kansas City. Note: 5Dimes has left the U.S. betting market but you can still bet on games at -105 odds! Find the same wagering platform, massive amount of props and same reduced vig at BetAnySports! We’ve advertised them for 10 years with zero complaints!