Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Trends, Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, Dec 11, 4:05 PM EST
Where: Mile High Stadium, Denver
TV: CBS
Point Spread: KC – 9 / Den + 9 (This is a great game to tease either way. You can move the line up ot 20 points with a giant NFL teaser at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)
Over/Under Total: 43
The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Mile High stadium this week for an NFL Week 14 clash with the Denver Broncos. Although one of these teams is a Super Bowl contender and the is probably the worst team in the AFC, neither has been very profitable to bet on this year. BOVADA.LV is making the Chiefs 9-point road favorites and set the over/under at 43. There is no way we could put our hard-earned money on Russell Wilson and the Broncos, so the play is to lay the wood with the Chiefs. Here are three reasons.
Denver Is a Disaster
This pick is more of a pick against the Broncos than it is for the Chiefs. Denver has been a train wreck all year, and there is no sign of any improvement coming. QB Russell Wilson signed a $242 million contract in the off-season only to perform as one of the worst QBs in the league. Denver’s offense has scored over 20 points only twice this season and is averaging 11 points per game in their last four contests. Even with the $242 million man, they are 26th in yards per play, 30th in 3rd down conversions, and dead last in the league in passing touchdowns and red-zone touchdown percent. This is the team that will be tasked with staying within 9 points of Patrick Mahomes and the best offense in the league. Denver had a formidable running back committee to start the year with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, but Williams is on IR, while Gordon is on the Chiefs bench. Courtland Sutton is all that is left of a solid receiving corps, and last week he didn’t have a catch. Denver’s offense is horrible and hard to watch, and there is no way they can keep up with the Chiefs.
Denver’s defense has kept the Broncos in games and will make Mahomes earn his points this week. It’s hard to believe they have allowed the 3rd fewest points in the league and still have only three wins. They allow the lowest yards per pass attempt and are the 3rd best defense in the league on 3rd down. But those stats are not against the Chiefs. Patrick Surtain II is a shutdown corner, but he won’t be able to do it all this week. The weakness of the Bronco defense is that they don’t generate a lot of pressure on the QB, which is what they need this week. This defense will be on the field all day Sunday, and they won’t be able to shut down the Chief offense.
KC Will Run Away
Andy Reid’s squad is coming off a disappointing loss at Cincy last week, so the offense should be dialed in Sunday. Mahomes has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, and though outside of Travis Kelce, there are no superstars, there is more talent than Denver can account for. KC’s offense is at or near the top of the league in every scoring and passing category – and without unrelenting pressure from a front four or self-induced turnovers, they are unstoppable. Look for Isiah Pacheko to continue having success on the ground while Mahomes picks apart the Denver secondary. I look for the Chiefs to find the endzone on multiple occasions this week, probably topping 30 points.
The Chief defense is up to the challenge of handling the Bronco attack. KC has allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards on the season, so the game will come down to Wilson being able to win the game for Denver. KC is 8th in the league in sacking opposing QBs, while Denver allows the 4th most sacks, meaning Wilson will be under duress all game. Wilson can’t escape pressure like he could five years ago, so look for him to spend a lot of time on his back this week. The Chiefs will shut down Denver’s anemic offense this week, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Broncos score in the single digits again.
More Picks: Get Dan’s Big AFC match analysis & predicted spread winner >>>
The Chiefs Have a Huge Coaching Advantage
Denver Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett is overmatched for the position. Hackett is an offensive-minded coach, but the Bronco offense seems to play worse every week – if that is possible. The defense is doing its part, but they are growing tired of shutting down opponents just to watch their offense stumble to 9 or 10 points a week. It appears Hackett has lost the Bronco locker room.
On the other hand, Andy Reid will have an offensive game plan that will exploit the weaknesses of the Bronco defense. The Chiefs will come together and rebound after the tough loss to the Bengals. Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will dial up exotic blitzes that will overpower a bad Denver offensive line and won’t take his foot off the gas.
Trust The Chiefs to Bury The Broncos
KC doesn’t have a great ATS record and often gives up back-door covers, but I think they will bury Denver this week and easily cover the 9-point spread. Back the Chiefs. Bet your Week 14 NFL predictions for FREE plus get a free half point everytime you bet your favorite team when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook!
