Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets – Sunday Night Showdown
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. New York Jets (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, October 1, 8:20 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Point Spread: KC -9 / NYJ +9
Moneyline: KC -410 / NYJ +320
Over/Under Total: 42.5
Andy Reid brings his Chiefs to the Big Apple to battle the Jets on prime this Sunday Night. A month ago we all had this game circled on our calendar to see if the Jets and Aaron Rodgers were legitimate super bowl contenders. Now with Zach Wilson behind center, the question we are asking is will KC cover the big spread. BOVADA.LV agrees Wilson is the weakest link, and has set the Chiefs as 9 point road favorites and set the game total at 42.5. Although KC has not been good at covering these large numbers over the past few years, I think they steamroll NY, win the game by double digits and cover the big number. Here are 3 reasons.
KC’s Offense Will Get Theirs
Reid and Mahomes have been working through multiple issues through September, specifically which wide receiver can elevate their game to become a trustworthy target for Mahomes. Mahomes continues to play at his All-World level, despite not having a receiver that could start on many NFL teams. Of course, Travis Kelce continues to be the hub of the passing game, but the real fireworks won’t happen until a receiver fills the void as the number 1 outside target. But that won’t impact this game. KC’s offense needs to get 3 touchdowns in the first 3 quarters, which they should have no trouble doing. Sky Moore and Kadarius Toney offer a gadget option for Mahomes and Reid, and I have no doubt that Reid will have something in his bag of tricks to put 3 touchdowns on the board. They manhandled an overmatched Bears defense last week, but it will be a bigger task this week. Isiah Pacheko has led the backfield that is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, which is sufficient for this offense to stay on schedule and convert short first downs when needed. Look for the Chiefs’ offense to keep rolling, albeit at a steadier pace than previous years, and move the ball against the Jets.
New York’s defense is again an elite unit, but they have been stressed since the loss of Rodgers has put the weight of their team on their shoulders. They saved the week 1 game against the Bills, but have given up 382 and 358 yards in the past 2 weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots. They have 6 sacks and 3 interceptions on the season, but recorded goose eggs in both statistics last week against New England. As good as the Jet defense is, it has proven the last 2 weeks against Dallas and the Patriots that it can’t win games on their own. Reid and Mahomes will have a plan to exploit the weaknesses in the Jet defense, and make sure they don’t give a short field or points to the Jets defense. They may not score 40 this week, but they will get all they need and not give anything easy to New York.
New York’s Offense Is Abysmal
There was a lot of debate about how good the Jet offense could be with Rodgers, but there is little debate about how bad it is with Wilson. It is no better than it was last year, and the Jets knew how bad it was as they were looking for replacements for Wilson both during the season last year and in the off-season. Wilson is completing just over 50% of his passes at under 5 yards per attempt. If we take out the one Breece Hall rush of 68 yards in week 1, the Jets running backs have averaged just 3 yards per attempt on the ground, so nothing is working. The offensive line has been overmatched in weeks 2 and 3 against good defensive fronts, and this week will be no different. New York has scored 20 points total in the last 2 weeks and there is no reason to expect that all of a sudden that number will jump this week.
On the flip side, KC’s defense has been surprisingly good. They held good Detroit and Jacksonville offenses to a total of 23 points, before dominating the helpless Bears last week. The defense has been an issue for the Chiefs early in the season the past few years, but this year they are limiting opponents while their offense works out the kinks. Since Chris Jones returned in week 2 the KC front has recorded 7 sacks, and been stout against the run. I understand it is nothing to brag about shutting down the Bears offense, but the Bears are as good as the Jets. There is nothing about this match up that would make us think that the Jets will score in the 20s this week.
Wilson Will Make Mistakes
KC’s script in games against teams they are significantly better than is to sprint out to an early lead, then take their foot off the gas and give up back door covers. I think this is a trend we can take advantage of, but not with Wilson at QB. I think this game plays out like the Jets vs Cowboys in week 2. Dallas was the significantly better team, and controlled the game. The Jets’ conservative offensive approach and strong D kept the game close for 45 minutes. Then the 4th quarter happened. Wilson and the offense had to take some chances, and then the dam broke. Wilson tried to make plays, but his line couldn’t protect, and when under pressure Wilson threw 3 picks and it was lights out. Dallas won by 20. During the 4th quarter on Sunday Night after KC puts up at least 3 TDs in the first 3 quarters, Wilson will have to throw, and Spagnuolo will have some blitzes dialed up for him and it won’t be pretty. The Chiefs abused a bad Bears team last week, and I look for the same thing this week as the Chiefs bury the Jets.
Lay The Points With KC
Count on the Chiefs to cover the big number this week in the Meadowlands. Play KC.