LA Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions 11/28/21

by | Nov 24, 2021 | nfl

LA Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) v. Green Bay Packers (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS)

NFL Week 12

When: Sunday, Nov. 28 at 4:25p ET

Where: Lambeau Field - Green Bay, WI

TV: FOX

Point Spread: LAR +1/GB -1 (BetNow - Deposit $100 to $1000 and they’ll match you dollar for dollar with a 100% REAL CASH bonus! - Not a crappy match play!)

Over/Under Total: 47.5

The NFC Playoff race is heating up, and two contenders take the field this weekend, with the LA Rams heading to Green Bay to face the Packers. A loss to the Vikings last week cost the Packers the top-seed, and a rash of injuries now threaten to derail what looked like a potential championship run. The Rams were in good shape at 7-1 but stumbled in their last two to fall back to the fifth spot in the NFC. LA is coming off their bye week and has won 3-of-4 following a bye under Sean McVay. Beyond getting some rest, the bye will help integrate Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. into their roles. In twenty previous games against Green Bay, Matthew Stafford has thrown for 37 touchdowns against 20 interceptions and finished with a 7-13 record.
In his final seven games against GB, Stafford threw 12 touchdowns and just one interception, winning four straight to mark his best stretch as a Lion.

Trend Watch

The Rams are riding a four-game skid against the spread but have fared well after losses, going 11-3 ATS in the last fourteen following a straight-up loss. Green Bay has won four straight against the spread at Lambeau, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as the favorite. This is not a common matchup for either team, but Green Bay has won each of the previous seven against the spread, including a 32-18 win as a seven-point favorite during the playoffs last season. The OVER has paid in nine of the previous ten when LA is the dog, but the UNDER has hit in five of the last six when Green Bay is favored. Roughly 60% of the public money is on Green Bay through Tuesday night, and the OVER is getting about 65% of the action.

Just Grind it Out

With their bye week just one week away, Green Bay just needs to find a way to win and then get some key guys back in the lineup. Aaron Jones will not play Sunday, and it is questionable if Allen Lazard will be able to suit up after missing last week with a shoulder injury. OL Elgton was lost for the season last week, and T David Bakhtiari will not play until Week 14 at the earliest, leaving Green Bay’s offensive line rather thin. That further complicates Aaron Rodgers’ situation if his injured toe limits his mobility at all. The defense could be without sack-leader Rashan Gary, and newly acquired Whitney Mercilus has been placed on IR. The offense was good last week, scoring 31 against Minnesota, which was the second-highest point total on the season. A.J. Dillon was held to 53 rushing yards in just his second career start but did add 44 receiving yards on six catches to give Green Bay some versatility out of the backfield despite a lack of experienced options. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team in targets and receiving yards in place of the injured Lazard, and Davante Adams’ 115 yards moved him to third in the league. This looks to be primarily a three-man offense with Dillon, MVS, and Adams handling the bulk of the work until Jones is back. The Packers defense was on a roll after giving up just 28 points in the three games prior, but while they were exposed a bit last week, they still rank 7th against the pass and allow a 5th best, 19.5 points per game. Preston Smith notched two sacks last week, and he will need to produce again if Gary cannot go. Green Bay has remained in the top-10 in sacks and needs to get pressure as they have fallen to 28th in third-down conversions allowed.

More Picks: Vikings vs. 49ers Week 12 Over/Under Best Bet >>>

Good Time to Head to Lambeau?

Playing at Lambeau in November isn’t usually a fun trip, but the Rams will luck out a bit with a rather calm day and temps above freezing in the forecast. A week of film study should give Sean McVay some answers on how the Rams have scored just 26 points in their last two games total, and LA gets to face a less-than-100% Aaron Rodgers. All things considered, that is a good recipe to go into Green Bay and steal a win. The Rams have the 4th best passing game in the league, with Stafford sitting fourth at 3,014 yards. The running game is just 24th in yards, but Darrell Henderson is a key playmaker, with LA winning all six contests where Henderson either hit fifteen carries or scored a touchdown. Cooper Kupp leads the NFL with 1,141 yards, and Van Jefferson (16.4 YPC) has expanded his role since Robert Woods was lost for the year. How Odell Beckham finds his way in this offense could be a significant factor in the Rams success into the playoffs, and I expect a better output than his 2-18 line from his LA debut. The defense is 4th in yards per rush allowed, and while the pass defense has given up some yards, they have held QBs to a sub-86 rating and are just two sacks off the league lead.

It’s a Close Call…Take the Rams

Both teams have similar strengths and weaknesses, so it is no surprise to see this game listed as a pick-em in many places. The injuries along the GB offensive line are troubling, especially if Rodgers is limited and his go-to receiver is going up against Jalen Ramsey. Green Bay doesn’t really have the depth of playmakers to succeed if Davante Adams is held in check, and LA is then the better unit on the field with Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd hunting the QB. Floyd has been in the concussion protocol but is expected to be available and look for Von Miller to increase his snap count from last week to further give the Rams an edge. Stafford has familiarity with the Green Bay defense and now has better weapons to attack it than he did for most of his time in Detroit. Green Bay is fortunate to still have a big lead in the division, and they are still on track to finish strong with four of their last six games at home, but this one feels like they are a bit overmatched. I also don’t like the game on Mason Crosby’s foot if the game is as close as it could be. Crosby does have a game-winner this year but has also missed five attempts in just his last five games and leads the league on misses from under 40-yards. I think this has a chance to be a fun game to watch, like the 29-27 contest from 2018 in Los Angeles. The Rams cashed in a late field goal for the win there, and they see a similar result this Sunday as they stop their skid with a 26-23 win.

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