Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick & Analysis

The Las Vegas Raiders come into Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for a big AFC showdown with the Indianapolis Colts. The loser of this game will really be behind the 8-ball, though both already are. The Raiders got to 7-8 last week, continuing to show late-season life with a win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead, 20-14. They take on a Colts team that needs to pick up the pieces after falling flat on Sunday in Atlanta, losing to the Falcons, 29-10. Can the Raiders keep it rolling in Indy or will the Colts start making that push for a wild-card spot?

Who is in Better Shape Right Now?

One would be inclined to give the Raiders the edge in momentum with two straight wins, though the three-game slide prior to that sort of torpedoed their whole season. The Colts, needing a win, and getting rocked by Atlanta, makes it hard to say they’re looking good right now, but they’re still 5-2 in their last 7 games. If you are looking to take shots at the Raiders, their wins came against a rock-bottom Chargers’ team, and in beating the Chiefs last week, they scored no offensive TDs, with the Vegas defense getting their only two TDs. Raiders’ QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 62 yards on the day, though they got a big game from backup running back Zamir White.

The Colts have a lot going for them: talent on both sides of the ball, that nice O-line, and the ability to sustain a nice running game. We’ll see what the status is for lead receiver Michael Pittman, whose absence on Sunday had a palpably negative effect on this Colts’ offense. Having the run-game in flux with the on-again/off-again Jonathan Taylor hasn’t helped, either. And while Gardner Minshew is a valuable commodity as a backup quarterback, maybe we’re starting to see some of his drawbacks as a QB you want behind center when trying to make a playoff push. He has become more inconsistent in recent weeks. And not seeing any receiver being able to step up last week illustrates a certain lack of depth they have in that area.

Good Spot for the Raiders’ Defense?

Whether Raiders’ interim head coach Antonio Pierce get an opportunity after this season remains to be seen, but there have been gains on defense. They completely took over the game against the Chiefs last week and looked good a few weeks before that, allowing just three points even in losing fashion to the Vikings. They get some similarities to last week’s matchup this week, going against a crew of receivers that leaves something to be desired while also hoping to catch Minshew on one of his errant weeks, where a newly-opportunistic Raiders’ defense can take advantage of some miscues. Sure, they’re going against a talented line, but the pass rush has also become much more of a factor in recent weeks, something they’re hoping will elicit some mistakes from this Colts’ offense.

Trying to Make a Case for Indy

Maybe getting Jonathan Taylor more up to speed will start to pay off moving ahead for the Colts. The more important element for the purposes of this game will be to have Pittman back in there, and you’d think he would, but it’s worrisome that he passed concussion protocol last week only to relapse and be ruled out of action. That would be a piece of personnel news that bears watching heading into game-time. Failings against Atlanta aside, this is still a team with a lot of strength in the trenches, playing at home against a Raiders team that may have shown a little spark but is far from a foolproof proposition in a tricky road-spot such as this. After playing 3 of four on the road, the Colts will also enjoy being back at home, where they’ve won their last three games. There have been a lot easier spots for the Raiders than this, where they came up woefully short. Last week paints a bad image for the Colts, but this is when a more-composite view of things might be more-helpful.

Last week illustrated the vast range of play you can see from the Raiders’ offense. Coming off a 63-point bonanza against the Chargers, they managed two measly field goals against the Chiefs. Davante Adams is not being utilized properly. Joshua Jacobs is banged-up and even if he returns, now would be a weird time to see him putting forth those big games he was known for heading into this season. Is this a spot, going against a super-urgent Colts team with everything on the line, where you’d be inclined to forecast a higher-end Raiders’ offensive showing? Or is this where we see some of the same level of heart that allowed the Colts to brave a rash of critical injuries to come back from a 3-5 start to the season to fight their way back?

Take the Home Favorite

It’s a task to shake off the image from last week. It’s a short window but a graphic one, with the Raiders beating an urgent Chiefs team on the road while Indy caved to a bad Falcons team, and it wasn’t even close. To get behind the Colts this week requires a leap of faith. But if we see Pittman is a go, I’d be inclined to think they bounce back this week and bring the Raiders down to earth some. I’m going with Indy in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Indianapolis Colts minus 3 points.