Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Pick 12/8/19
Miami Dolphins (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 8th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Point Spread: MIA +5.5 / NYJ -5.5 (MyBookie)
Power Rankings: New York -5
Takeaways From Week Thirteen
The Dolphins earned their third win of this season when they hosted the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Closing as a 10.5-point underdog, the Dolphins orchestrated their second double-digit outright upset this season. Miami would defeat a beleaguered Philly by a score of 37-31. After starting the season 0-4 ATS, the Dolphins have since gone 6-2 ATS.
The Jets came into last week’s meeting with a winless Cincinnati Bengals as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Gang Green had put together an impressive three-game win streak in which the Jets scored 34 points in all of these matches. New York would hit a wall against the Bengals and fall victim to a 22-6 upset despite closing as a 2.5-point favorite against Cincinnati. This would be the second time this season, New York would be a team’s first win. The first occasion came in early November in a road loss against these Miami Dolphins.
How the Public is Betting the Miami-New York Game
So far, 63% of the consensus is leaning on Miami. As a result, we have seen the line fall by half of a point from New York opening as a six-point favorite.
The Dolphins have controlled this series as of late as they have won the last four meetings between both sides. The Dolphins and Jets last met on November 3rd in Miami when, as mentioned, the Jets would fall prey to an upset. The Dolphins closed as a 3.5-point underdog, but they would handle the Jets 26-18.
The Dolphins have been kind to bettors in the previous four chapters of this divisional rivalry. Miami has procured an impressive 3-0-1 ATS in the last four fixtures against New York. Overall, the Underdog will look appetizing with a 3-1-1 ATS mark in the previous five matches.
Both Miami and New York have not listed any key injury concerns as they head into their final meeting of the 2019 season.
Why We Like New York To Cover:
There are many reasons to like New York here, all of which anchor in the fact that they are short-sold here. Last week’s loss at Cincinnati has tarnished the shine of these Jets in one fell swoop. Combining this with Miami’s hot-hand in this series as of late makes New York a tough choice here, laying a touchdown at the open. However, the market’s position is one that resonates with us. Despite all the reasons to short-price New York again, the market perceives New York to best the Dolphins by more than a field goal. Given how the Jets have lost the last three meetings against Miami by at least a touchdown, this narrative makes Miami look easy here and likely reeling in takers for a ripped ticket.
Moreover, wintry weather has also descended into the Big Apple, which does not bode well for a tropical-climate team like Miami. Be that as it may, Miami is just 1-4 SU away from home this season, and that victory was earned in Indianapolis against the Colts in a controlled dome environment. On Sunday, it’s going to be cold and blustery, which plays ideally into the Jets’ hands.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York -5.5
While neither team will be a player in the playoff race, this contest will likely have a lively atmosphere given the revenge aspect of this game. The Jets will be motivated to atone for last week’s debacle in Cincinnati, and they would also like to earn some vindication for what transpired last month in Miami. Given the fact that Miami’s defense surrenders a league-worst 31.4 points per contest, it is not hard to fathom New York finding a way to hit 34 points again at the expense of the Dolphins. Moreover, Miami’s offense on a consistent basis will not be able to bail them out as they average just 16.7 points per match (29th in the NFL). Should New York’s offense be firing on all cylinders, the Jets will win this game with an exclamation point. I suspect Gang Green will defeat Miami handily by a double-digit margin at minimum.