Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers: Week 8 NFL Betting Analysis and Pick

Minnesota Vikings (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Week 8 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

TV: Fox

Point Spread: MIN -1 / GB +1 (Bovada)

Over/Under Total: 43

The Minnesota Vikings come to Lambeau Field on Sunday for an NFC North battle with the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately for the Packers, they land in this week 8 spot with a thud, recipients of a 19-17 loss to the Broncos last week, their third straight loss after a decent 2-1 start. After their second two-game road stretch of the season, they again return home where they hope their fortunes shift. They host a Vikings squad that while not striking fear into the NFL, has turned things around a bit with two straight wins, including a nice 22-17 MNF win over the 49ers in week 7. Who can get it done in this NFC North matchup at Lambeau on Sunday?

Can the Packers Rise Up?

Earlier in the year, we saw Green Bay’s defense being pretty scrappy, with Jordan Love doing enough. But with injuries, more miscues by Love, and diminishing returns on defense, we’re now seeing a pretty flawed football product. Green Bay going into Mile High is a bit of an out-of-context matchup and they have been placed in a lot of off-putting road contexts already this season. Having AJ Dillon being your lead back, while Aaron Jones was out didn’t help, nor does a receiver crew that lacks a real star. Having Aaron Jones be your big-gun on offense leaves something to be desired perhaps, though he should start coming around with better health.

Being at home in a familiar divisional setting against an opponent with its own limitations could give way to a better look. It’s a more-advantageous spot than what they’ve been getting lately—road spots against Atlanta, Vegas, and Denver, while catching a peaking Lions team in Lambeau a few weeks ago. Here, they get another divisional team at home, so maybe a slight surge on both sides of the ball is something they can see happen.

The Vikings still have a decent edge in offensive firepower, even with Justin Jefferson out of action. And moving ahead, Green Bay will be facing a real challenge of getting this offense cranked up, getting more out Love and reducing mistakes, while allowing someone from the supporting cast to rise up. You can’t thrive in this league with an unproven force at quarterback as he’s figuring things out with a mish-mosh cast of role guys where no one is standing out. Assuming Jones is back to normal after dealing with a hamstring issue most of the season, they could have a run-game that surpasses Minnesota’s and can challenge that Vikings’ defensive front. But with all the Vikings’ problems, having a suitable presence at QB, a difference-making tight end, and receivers who can deliver big games makes them the more appealing offense heading into this spot.

Good Spot for Green Bay?

Morale counts for a lot. The Packers are not riding high by any means on the heels of three straight losses. We have seen some troubling signs over the course of the last several weeks. We can say the win over the Niners on MNF puts it into a new light, but does it? The Jefferson injury, the Kirk Cousins trade rumors, an imminently-exploitable defense, it’s unclear how all this will resonate over time with the Vikes. When two teams are occupying similar stations in life, having an edge in overall morale could count for something. But alas, it comes down to more than headspace. The Packers simply have to do better if they want to thrive even in what seems like a doable spot this week. The defense needs to tighten up both against the run, while finding answers in an underachieving secondary and getting CB Jaire Alexander (questionable) back would go a long way. Love desperately needs to extract something from the talent he in fact possesses.

Do the Last Few Weeks Change Things for Minnesota?

In a way, it does. Two straight wins and three in their last four, with the only loss being a one-score loss to the Chiefs maybe has the Vikings feeling more positive. Even if the wins aren’t totally impressive from top-to-bottom, it’s progress that they’re taking what were close losses earlier in the season and are now seeing some close games materialize into wins. When one considers all their losses were one-score affairs, you start to think that maybe the Vikings weren’t as far off as everyone had thought.

Still, without Jefferson, they’re not likely to pour it on. When taking a team, it’s nice to know if a best-case scenario develops, that team could have you sitting pretty at halftime and this Minnesota team might not be capable of that. It was nice to see Jordan Addison step up with two TDs in a big game against the Niners, but the offense is more-subdued and running the ball hasn’t been something that comes easy for this defense, which would be nice with Jefferson out of action. But with an improving defense and Cousins getting what he can out of this group, while not undermining the effort with mistakes, who’s to say they can’t climb into the NFC postseason picture at some point?

Take the Road Team

It’s not the Vikings team any of us expected to be entering week 8, but it’s the one we have. In recent weeks, offensive fireworks and a slapstick defense has transformed into a more competent unit overall. It’s not as explosive, but it’s functional. And I’m not sure we can bank on the same level with the Green Bay offense. At home against this Vikings team seems like a good enough spot, but I sense the Vikings can keep this little mini-surge going this week. I’ll take the Vikings in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Minnesota Vikings minus 1 point.