Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles Total Pick

by | Sep 19, 2022 | nfl

Minnesota Vikings (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)

When: Monday, September 19th, 8:30 PM ET

Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

TV: ABC and ESPN

Point Spread: Min +2.5/Phi -2.5 (Bovada - Bet the game live in progress for free by scoring a 50% bonus up to $250! Their live betting platform is the best on the planet! Not clunkly like other sportsbooks!)

Money Line: Vikes +115/Eagles -137

Total: Opened at 47.5 and has moved up to 50

Takeaways From Week 1

The Vikings smashed the Packers 23-7. They did so with a balanced attack that included 23/32 passing from Kirk Cousins and 28 rushes for 126 yards from Cook and Mattison. The Packers came into the game with offensive line issues and were playing rookie receivers who weren’t on the same page with Aaron Rodgers. The Minnesota defense got to Rodgers for four sacks and five quarterback hits. Rodgers has never been a fan of rookie receivers but was forced to use them as his number one (Lazard) was out recovering from injury. One has to wonder if not taking regular reps in the preseason had something to do with the sub-par results.

Nonetheless, any stomping of Aaron Rodgers and the Pack is noteworthy and shows that the Vikings appear to be solid coming into the 2022 NFL season. As I’m sure you probably saw on ESPN twenty times, Justin Jefferson went off, going 8/184 with a pair of touchdowns. Jefferson is the real deal but will likely be slowed down a bit on MNF as he’ll surely draw coverage from Darius Slay. In summary, the Vikings look like they’ll be executing a balanced offense under new head coach Kevin O’Connell.

The Eagles looked impressive last week at the Lions until they didn’t. They got up big, got lazy, and pissed away a fat lead in the fourth quarter. Jalen Hurts looked like he’s taken a step up in skill. He’s surrounded by an amazing cast of solid offensive linemen, a stud running back in Miles Sanders (who has a tough time staying healthy), and excellent receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. They’ve also got a great tight end in Dallas Goedert. The Lions’ defense is quite possibly the worst in the NFL, so it’s tough to gauge how good the Eagles really are at this point. They definitely have the right cast of characters to do good things.

The two concerning variables about the Eagles are that they allowed a whopping 35 points to the Lions and Hurt was only 18-32 vs. a secondary that gave up a ton of yardage to Carson Wentz on Sunday. They won’t be able to be lazy against a Vikings team that is happy to be running a balanced offense, unlike the structure they ran under departed coach Mike Zimmer.

How the Public is Betting the Minny/Philly Game

A square pool I follow which has 1,600 picks on this game, shows 58% of bettors favoring the Vikings as a short underdog.

The Historicals

These teams don’t play each other much, considering that they’re both members of the NFC. The last time the Vikings and Eagles met was in 2019, in which the Vikings beat the Eagles 38-20. The teams have only played six times since 2010, in which Minnesota holds a 4-2 advantage. The Eagles have won two of the last three meetings in Philly.

Injury Concerns

As of Sunday night, Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen is questionable (personal), and cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. will miss with a quad issue.

Philly will be without defensive end Derek Barnett, who is out for the season with an ACL issue, and backup tackle Andre Dillard.

When the Vikings Have the Ball

Mike Zimmer is gone, but the run is still the strength of this team. PFF claims they have a 30% run advantage over Philly’s run defense, and the eye test supports this hypothesis. Conversely, Pro Football Focus claims that the Eagles’ pass defense has a 30% advantage over Minny’s passing offense. I feel like this is overstated a bit, as the Vikings have a number of weapons on offense, including Adam Thielen and little-known tight end Irv Smith. I’m expecting a balanced attack Monday night and for running back Dalvin Cook to run for close to 100 yards. While the Over/Under has gone up from 47.5 to 50, more runs result in more clock run, so that line move may be overstated as well.

When the Eagles Have the Ball

The Eagles’ ground game also has an advantage rushing the ball against the Vikings’ run defense. Miles Sanders is an excellent back and runs behind road grader OLs. The Eagles have a slight advantage over Minnesota defensive backs as well. With all this said, there’s a genuine concern that Miles Sanders can make it through a full complement of touches. This guy is SUPER injury prone, and I can confidently say he’s the most fragile running back in football. There’s also the concern over Jalen Hurts’ accuracy.

On the plus side, I don’t think Vikings cornerback Cam Dantzler can handle A.J. Brown. The Eagles wide receiver has 40+ pounds on the Viking DB and is faster than him as well.

Betting Trends

  • Minnesota has not been a good bet on MNF as they’re gone 4-12 ATS over their last 16 appearances in the spotlight.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Viking’s last 6 Monday Night Football games.
  • The home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings.
  • As a favorite, the Eagles are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
  • OVER is 5-0 in the Eagles’ last five home games.

Weather Report

The temperature is projected to be 77 degrees and cloudy, with seven mph winds to the south.

Kevin’s Bet Recommendation

These teams are very similar and project the make the playoffs this season. Picking a winner against the spread here is no easy task. For starters, there’s very little advantage when two good teams meet. This game could literally come down to one play. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I believe A.J. Brown will be the difference maker. The Vikings (nor anybody else in the NFL) has an answer for him. He’s a matchup NIGHTMARE. I’m not betting the spread tonight, but if I did, my lean would be to Philly. What I am betting is the UNDER 50. I think both teams will try to impose their strength on each other, and this will create burn on the clock. It’s probably going to be scary, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this game landed on 47 or 49, but that’s where I find value in this game. Good luck! Question: When you bet on NFL games, are you laying -110 odds (or more?) Did you know that there’s an online sportsbook out there where you only have to lay -105? If you’re betting $50 or more, it’s imperative you make the switch to reduced juice! It’ll save you TONS of money! Find this beautiful offer at BetAnySports!

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