New England Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date and Time: Sunday, November 16, 2014, 8:30 pm EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.
TV: NBC
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NE +3/Ind. -3
Over/Under Total: 57
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The National Football League is a quarterback dominated league, and this Sunday Night well get to see two of the leagues best when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in a primetime showdown on NBC that could end up as a tie-breaker for homefield advantage in the AFC.
Both teams will be fresh and raring go, as both will be coming off a bye week to rest and relax, game plan, and get rid of the little aches and pains that tend to creep up at this time of the calendar year.
Prior to the bye week, the Patriots impressed everyone in the league by beating up on the Denver Broncos, 43-21, in the showdown game featuring Brady vs. Peyton Manning. The huge win over the Broncos was the Patriots fifth in a row, rebounding all the way back from their debacle in Kansas City (a 41-14 loss) back in late September.
Luck and the Colts are also coming off a blowout victory the last time out, destroying the New York Giants, 40-24, the last time they played in primetime on Sunday Night Football. The win was the sixth in the Colts last seven games, with only a six-TD game by Ben Roethlisberger as the only down note since they opened the season 0-2.
With a Brady-Luck matchup as its showcase piece, oddsmakers set the opening point spread for the game with Indianapolis as the standard 3-point favorite that the home team usually gets in the NFL. The over/under total opened at 57 and has yet to move in either direction after the first 24 hours of being up on the board.
With a banged up Patriots defense and two weeks for the defensive maestro Bill Billichick to try and figure out a way to stop Luck, it will be interesting to see how the Pats attempt to slow down the Colts and their No. 1 ranked offense in the NFL (451 ypg). Luck is on pace to break Peyton Mannings NFL touchdown record, with over 3,000 yards passing already and 26 TD throws after just nine weeks. But the Pats found a way to make Manning look human last time out, so I wouldnt put it past Billichick and the cast of no-names on the New England defense to find some way to confuse Luck and get him out of his comfort zone.
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Brady and the Pats offense will certainly watch a lot of the tape from a few weeks ago when Big Ben carved up the Indy defense for 522 yards and six scoring tosses. The Colts will hope to get LB Erik Walden and DT Arthur Jones back from injury, but it might not help them contain Brady and the Pats from hitting close to their 31.2 points per game average (3rd in NFL).
The last time these two met on the field the Pats ran up 43 points in last years AFC playoffs, but it wasnt Brady doing the damage but 46 running plays for 234 yards that knocked the Colts out of the playoffs, 43-22. In fact, the Patriots have beaten the Colts in four straight head-to-head matchups going back to 2009, and all have them been big scoring games as New England has averaged 41 points in those four wins.
Its no secret that New England is one of the publics favorite teams to wager on, but sharp bettors will note that the Pats are not nearly as strong of a play on the road as they are at home (4-11 ATS in last 15 road games). However, the Pats must like Indianapolis because they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 visits to the Midwestern mecca. Conversely, the Colts are like the rest of the NFL a good wager at home (18-5 ATS in last 23 in Lucas Oil Stadium) and a solid bet also when they are coming out of their bye week (6-1 ATS following bye).
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This is going to be a very tough game to pick a side for in my opinion. Indys defense is not likely to stop Brady too much, while Billichick and the Pats defense might have some new wrinkles for Luck, the good thing about Luck is that he just keeps coming at you every series. Its a big number, but I think this game goes over the total of 57 in a classic last man standing style of game. Im taking the over of 57.
