New Orleans Saints vs. Oakland Raiders Point Spread – Pick Against the Spread

New Orleans Saints(4-5SU,5-4ATS) vs.Oakland Raiders(3-6SU, 3-6ATS)
NFL Week11
Date/Time:November18th, 4:05PM EST
Where:Oakland County Coliseum, Oakland, CA
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper,

Point Spread: NO-4.5OAK +4.5
Over/Under Total:54.5

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Two teams heading inoppositedirections highlight thisInterconferencbattlebetweenthe New Orleans Saints and Oakland Raiders. N.O. has wontwo in a row and four out of their last five. Last week, the Saints upset the Falcons 31-27 as 1-point home underdogs. New Orleans was out-gained for the fifth straight time and fell to just 2-7 ITS(in the stats) this season. Ugly.The Raiders lost its second straight game to Baltimore after winning two in a row near the end of October. Oakland lost 55-20 as 9.5-point road dogs, but managed to out-stat the Ravens by 3 yards. Oakland improved to 5-4 ITS thisseasonand havewon the stats in five out of their last six games.


Oakland brings in the better defense by almost 100 yards. New Orleans brings in the better offense and special teams.After allowing 55 points at Baltimore last week, the Raidersshould be fired up at home where they love to play. The last time Oakland played a home game they allowed 42 points to the Buccaneers. That’s 97 points in their last two games, andinjuriesto Richard Seymour and Darren McFadden have not helped. Both players are unlikely to play. The Raiders will need all the help they can’t get in trying to stop this Saints team that scored 59points in their last two games. New Orleans defense has played a lot better in their last two wins. The Saints’pass defense has shownsubstantialimprovement and will be tested in this game for sure. Oakland’s pass offense gains 290 yards per game on 41.9 attempts per game.

The Saints play the San Francisco 49ersnext week and must not get caught looking ahead to that game. DrewBreesis a veteran and will bring in his 25/9 TD/INT ratio into this contest. Carson Palmer has done a nice job for the Raiders with a 15/9 TD/INT ratio,and no other QB hasattemptedmore passes this season than Palmer. You have to wonder if his throwing arm will hold up for the entire season. Oakland has played two physical games in a row, so lets see how they react to the Saints fast paced offense. New Orleans has a big advantage in this game, and it will be their offensive line being muchsuperiorthan Oakland’s line.

I love home underdogs with the better defense by almost 100 yards, but notso fast. Also, the fact that Oakland got blown out on the road and now return home is normally a very solid angle in all sports. In a game where you know it will takea lot of points to win, I trust the Saints’ offense more than I trust this Raiders’ offense. This game just mightcome down to the team that scores last. I think the Saints have more weapons and theyexecutea lot better. The one stat that favors the home team is the fact that Oakland is 7-0 ATS as home dogsafter a SU & ATS loss.

New Orleans defeated Oakland 34-3, as 7-point home favorites in October of 2008. DrewBreeswas 26-of-30 for 320 yards and three Touchdowns. JaMarcusRussell was 13-of-35 for 159 yards and one Interception for the Raiders. Look for bothquarterbacks to have big games and the team that commits the costly turnover will lose the game. The Saints do a better job at creating turnovers and protecting the ball.

The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. The Saints are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 11. Oakland is 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS loss. The Raiders are 18-40 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread:New Orleans Saints -4.5

I just think this team is on a roll right now. The Raiders should put up a good fight but will side with the Saints. Look for the Saints to pull away in the 4thquarter and win by at least 6 points.

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