New York Giants (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date/Time: October 4th, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium
TV: Direct TV
by Jeff Hochman, Professional Handicapper, jhsportsline.com
Point Spread: New York +6.5/ Buffalo -6.5
Over/Under Total: 46
Two teams coming off impressive wins will meet in this Week four non-conference matchup. Last Thursday, the New York Giants defeated the Redskins 32-21 as 3-point home favorites, despite getting outgained 393-363. New York took advantage on all three Redskins’ turnovers. Eli Manning was efficient, completing 23-of-32 for 279 yards and two scores. Rueben Randle will be a popular add in Fantasy leagues after finishing with 7 receptions for 116 yards and one touchdown. The Giants could easily be 3-0 after leading in the 4th quarter of every game this season.
The Buffalo Bills took advantage of the listless Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. They won easily 41-14 as 1-point road underdogs. The “sharps” and Public were on the same side as this line was bet down from Miami minus three. Buffalo outgained the Dolphins 428-391 and had three takeaways. Tyrod Taylor continues to make a case that he should remain the starter. Taylor completed 21-of-29 passes for 277 yards and three touchdowns. His quarterback rating was 136.7, which is a season and career high. I watched most of this game and the Bills completely out-coached the Dolphins from the get go.
After three straight weeks as betting underdogs, the Buffalo Bills will dress up as favorites for the first time this season. Teams in this role have been a huge play against for all “sharps” and wise guys alike. Buffalo has a really stout defense and will look to put a lot of pressure on Eli Manning. Manning has been one of the better quarterbacks when facing a blitzing scheme. He has great recognition skills and will use hand signals with receivers Odell Beckham Jr and Randle. It looks like Victor Cruz will return for this game, which only gives the Giants more options. Buffalo is 23-27 ATS as 3.5 to 7-point home favorites since 1993. They are 0-1 ATS in this role over the past three seasons. Yes, they have only been favorites of 3.5 to 7 points at home one time since 2012. Shocking!
The Giants are better than their record indicates and this team seems to be on a mission. They have suffered through back-to-back losing seasons. The last four times the Giants have had two straight losing campaigns, they have won nine games or more the following season. The young secondary has held up pretty well and might not have to deal with Sammy Watkins. He is nursing a calf injury and Rex Ryan said there is a chance he misses one game. Buffalo is ranked No. 1 in rushing yards per game while the Giants are ranked No. 21. The Giants have talent in the backfield and should have success against a blitzing scheme that the Bills like to play. The Bills defense has recorded six sacks while the Giants have just three sacks through three games. Both teams rank in the bottom half in stopping the run and the team that creates more pressure will win this game. Tyrod Taylor has been great at avoiding the rush and turning a negative play into a positive gain. He posted the highest QB rating (136.7) of any Bills quarterback since 2006, in the blowout victory at Miami. The Dolphins did not show up, but lets give the Bills’ stop unit some of the credit.
The Buffalo Bills are 1-5 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last three seasons. The New York Giants are 16-10 SU and 17-7 ATS when facing the AFC East since 1993.
The New York Giants have 10 days to prepare for this game. The Bills have to travel back home after playing the Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium. The Bills are cashing 33% after defeating the Miami Dolphins. Lets fade Tyrod Taylor is his first career game as the betting favorite. This line is too high so take the points in this overlay.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:New York Giants +7 at Bovada where you get the best underdog lines bar none. Plus new clients can get $250 free via a 50% deposit bonus!
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