New York Giants (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10 SU, 2-8-1 ATS)
NFL Week 13
Date and Time: Sunday, November 30, 1:00pm EST
Where: Everbank Field – Jacksonville, FL
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYG -3/JAX +3
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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This Thursday and Sunday in the NFL we have some great games to check out. This particular game however, is not one of those good ones. The 3-8 New York Giants will travel into sunny Jacksonville, Florida and take on the 1-10 Jaguars. Jacksonville has been one of the leagues worst teams going on a few years now, where as the Giants are new to the losing thing. Of course, the Giants have their ups and downs, but overall in the last 5-10 years, they have been considered more of a contender than not. The loser of this game, may have more of a reward than whoever wins this meaningless showdown.
The line opens here with the Giants favored by three points while the total points are set at 44.5. Both teams this year have losing records overall, but they are both losing against the spread too. New York comes in at 4-7 ATS, while Jacksonville is 2-8-1. The number for Jacksonville is astonishing. For the better part of 3-5 years, Jacksonville has been very bad. Usually these type of teams are faded often and they cover more spreads due to public perception. The fact that a 1-10 team has only covered two spreads means that not only are they a bad team, they are getting worse. Apparently, many of the bettors in Vegas agree with this trend, because 74% of the money right now is on the Giants to cover the three.
Jacksonville is just a putrid team. They do have a promising young quarterback in Blake Bortles, but that has done them no good up to this point since there is no one else on the roster to help the kid. The Jaguars are ranked near the bottom of the NFL in each and every major statistical category. Jacksonville ranks 27th in passing offense and 24th in rushing offense, while the defense is even worse ranking 27th against the pass and 28th against the run. I hate to say this about professional teams, because I believe each and every guy has pride and ego and gives their all each week, but I am starting to think Jacksonville has called it a day and is playing for that number one pick in the draft. If the Jaguars plan to win this game, which would be just their second win of the year, they need to play defense if anything. Eli Manning and the Giants are prone to turn the ball over at times. If Jacksonville can get themselves in some short field situations, then they just may have a shot to win. However, the Jags themselves need to make sure they protect the ball, they tend to give it away as well.
The New York Giants are a mystery. This team goes hot or cold like no other. I do not mean that for this season, that has been the story for the last 5-10 years. New york will lose five straight then next thing you know be in the playoff hunt. After starting this season at 0-2, the Giants then went on to win three straight. At that time, it appeared they were ready to make a run and battle Dallas and Philadelphia for the NFC East crown. Well, no….not so fast. The Giants have now lost six straight and they do not appear to be getting any more competitive as the season goes on. In defense of the Giants however, all six of those games have been against teams who are poised to make the playoffs, so it is not like they are losing to bottom feeders, they are losing to legit contenders. The key to beating Jacksonville and covering this three point spread is to stop the run. Ranked 31st against the run this season, New York has not done a great job of this, but I believe this match-up is much better for the G-Men and they can stop the run on first and second down, and put young Blake Bortles into long passing situations. If they can do this, I think the Giants are well on their way to a fourth win of 2014.
When you have two teams that are this bad, I hate picking the road favorite, but I for one believe the Giants have been the better team. They have played one of the toughest schedules, if not the toughest in the entire NFL, and they have remained somewhat competitive even in some losses. I just cannot ever put my money on a Jacksonville team that is 1-10 and only covered two spreads all season. The Giants will go into Jacksonville and Eli Manning will do enough to get a “ho-hum” 27-17 win over the Jags.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: PICK THE NEW YORK GIANTS -3