New York Giants (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3 SU, 0-3
ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 4th, 2009, Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City, Mo., TV: FOX
by Badger of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Giants -9/Chiefs +9
Over/Under: 42.5
Bet this game at one of the oldest and safest sportsbooks on the Net: Intertops.
The New York Giants look to continue their perfect season, both on
the field and against the spread, when they travel to Arrowhead
Stadium in Kansas City to take on the rebuilding Chiefs Sunday on Fox.
With the lone exception of their 33-31 come-from-behind win at Dallas
to snub the Cowboys in their stadium opener, the Giants have yet to
be tested really. Last week they dominated an overmatched Tampa Bay
team, 24-0, holding the Bucs to just 86 yards of total offense. Their
season-opener against the Redskins was also a solid win and much more
lopsided than the 23-17 score.
The Chiefs are on the other end of the spectrum, as the transition to new coach Todd Haley and new quarterback Matt Cassel has been rocky so far. The Chiefs have been competitive for the most part though, up
until last weekends 34-14 stinker on the road in Philly.
Oddmakers are expecting a blowout since the Giants opened the game as
9.5-point favorites on the road, in the usually tough atmosphere of
Arrowhead Stadium. Early steam at the window caused it to move a full-
point down to 8.5 at some sportsbooks, but over half of them still
list the game at 9 points, so you might only be able to get the extrahook (half-point) if you look hard enough.
The over/under total opened at 42.5 and has been stationary for themost part, but there are a few places that have adjusted it down to
just 42.
The Giants are in the top-10 in just about every offensive category
that matters, including total yards (391.7 ypg 6th), passing yards
(249.7 ypg 10th), rushing yards (142 ypg 8th) and scoring (26.7
ppg 7th). Eli Manning has done a great job of directing the Giants
offense, distributing the ball to all of his new receivers, and he
was spectacular in his last-minute drive versus Dallas. But it helps
when the running game pounds out 226 yards rushing like they did last
week against the Buccaneers.
Kansas City has struggled to consistently put together a solid game
on offense, although the fact that Cassel missed the first game and
continues to be hampered by a sore knee doesnt help Haley install
his entire playbook. Overall the Chiefs are 30th in total yards
(264.3 ypg), mainly because the passing game has yet to break 200
yards in a game (164 ypg -29th), which has made the running game ofLarry Johnson and Jamaal Charles fight an uphill battle.
Defensively these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum too,
as the Giants havent missed a beat in transition to new coordinator Bill
Sheridan after Steve Spagnuolo left to be the Rams head coach, while the
Chiefs are still a work in progress under their new leader,Clancy Pendergast,
who came with Haley from the Cardinals.
The Giants are 1st against the pass (124 ypg), 2nd in yards allowed
(245.3 ypg) and 4th in points allowed (16 ppg), while the Chiefs are
22nd in yards allowed (362.3 ypg) and 27thin scoring (28.3 ppg). No
matter how you look at it, it doesnt look too pretty for the Chiefs
this Sunday.
These two teams havent met on the gridiron in a regular season game since the 2005 season, a 27-17 win for the Giants in the Meadowlands.
In fact, theyve only met eight times in recent history (including
two preseason games) and the Giants have won every game but one
straight up. The lone Kansas City victory was back in 1995, a 20-17
at home at Arrowhead.
The Giants have covered every game in the series, all eight of them, even the preseason games. The Chiefs have been a bettors nightmare
of late, failing to cover a single game (preseason and regular
season) in the short Haley regime this season, as well as the last
two games of last season to make it a silly 0-9 ATS record since
December 14th, 2008 (a 22-21 loss to San Diego as 6-point underdogs).
The over/under betting trends are all over the board, so bet on the
total at your own risk.
Badgers Pick: One of these days the Chiefs will cover a spread, butprobably not this week. Unless the Giants plane goes down, or theyall catch the swine flu in the next few days, theres no way the
Chiefs should stay in this one. While Im on the side of the Giants
in this one, the best bet might be the under. If the Chiefs get
double-digits in first downs it should be considered a minor miracle.
Take the under of 43.5 and hope the Giants call off the dogs early.
