New York Jets (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS)
NFL Week 9
Date and Time: Sunday, November 2, 2014 at 1:00PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS
by Scott, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +10.5/KC -10.5
Over/Under Total: 41.5
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On Sunday afternoon, the New York Jets make the trip west to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are a gutty 4-3 and are coming off a 34-7 home beating of the Rams. The Jets have far less to be optimistic about, on the heels of 7 straight losses, including a 20-point loss to Buffalo last Sunday.
Its getting ugly for the Jets, as they now turn to 34-year old QB Michael Vick with Geno Smith stinking it up something awful. One gets the sense that the wheels are coming off for the Jets. After a season-opening win over a still-winless Oakland, they have dropped 7 straight and are becoming seemingly less-competitive with each passing week. They added Percy Harvin, who should see an increased role as he gets acclimated to his new team. They need all the help they can get.
The Chiefs have won 4 of 5 since beginning the season 0-2. They lost a bizarre game at home to open the season to the Titans, but have since been very tough at home, first smashing the Patriots, 41-14, before beating the Rams last weekend with 34 unanswered points. This is an overachieving and likable team. Fans are behind them. And Arrowhead is once again becoming one of the toughest stadiums for visiting teams in the entire league.
During their run of 4 wins in 5 games, the Chiefs have registered some good wins, first the lopsided win over the Patriots, who are now 6-2, as well as big wins over Miami and San Diego. Alex Smith is his usual dependable self at quarterback. The run-game, with Jamaal Charles, is a key element of the Chiefs success. Adding Knile Davis as a consistent weapon has really given the KC ground game a new dimension. TE Travis Kelce and WR Dwayne Bowe lead the passing attack.
Kansas City has allowed the fewest yards against he pass of any team in the league, boosted by a fearsome pass-rush and excellent coverage by the secondary. There is no questioning the talent of Michael Vick, but at a rusty 34 and having not looked good in limited time this season, you have to wonder how effective he will be. You have to wonder how effective any QB would be in this offense. Coming into Arrowhead against this D is not the easiest way for an old hand like Vick to get his feet wet. Then again, it cant be much worse that Smith, who had really lost his way in recent weeks.
The Jets are the worst passing team in the NFL. The Chiefs have the best pass defense in the league. So maybe a quarterback with legs to diversify the run-game will lead to better results for the Jets. Third in the league in rushing with 140 yards a game and with Vick offering a different dimension, look for the Jets to stick with the run-game until something works, with Vick sprinkling in some throws to keep the D honest. Between Chris Ivory, Chris Johnson, and Vick, they should be able to make some headway against a KC run-defense that hasnt always been top-notch this season.
The Jets have won only one game, but have also only covered the spread once. A few times, they failed covering by just a little, but it illustrates what a disappointment they have become, as they are failing to cover even inflated spreads, with the number of people willing to bet on the Jets decreasing each week. The risk now when betting on the Jets, especially against winning teams that truly have something to fight for, is that the Jets may be outgunned in the urgency department. Sure, pro players can be counted on to give a good effort, but its a lot better when the players have a clear goal and right now, thats unclear for Jets players other than they need to finally win a game at some point. Its just hard when you know your fate is unpleasant and youre right in the middle of it. Coach Rex Ryan is a lame duck, as this almost certainly figures to be his last season. Whoever is at QB will be so on just an interim basis, as getting a
new QB will be chief among the Jets offseason concerns.
The Chiefs, in terms of their recent results, may be one of the better teams in the AFC. They lost their first two games and are only 4-3, so not everybody is aboard yet. Theyre not a public darling of a team, with even their best players not being very flashy and operating just under the radar for most casual fans. So this could be a time to be getting KC at good value, which sounds strange as they are double-digit favorites. I see a home Kansas City team being a bit of an unapproachable task for the Jets at this point. Vick may not make it through the whole game. Kansas City should open up a healthy lead late and notch the cover.
Scott’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Im betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 10.5 points.
