New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Pick
New York Jets (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS)
When: Sunday, November 4th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
By: Keith Franks, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYJ +3 / MIA -3
Power Rankings: New York (25) / Miami (28)
Takeaways From Week 8
After a two-week run where the Jets looked like a potential playoff team, Gang Green has return backed to maligned form as it sits on the heels of a two-game losing streak. The Jets fell most recently on the road against the Chicago Bears in the Windy City as they fell by a score of 24-10 failing to cover as an 8.5-point underdog. What was even more disconcerting is that for the second week in a row, the Jets rushing attack could not come anywhere close to breaking the century mark despite the running game being New York’s bread and butter all season long.
Like their rivals the Jets, Miami also comes in on a two-game skid where their defense seemed non-existent against the likes of both Detroit and Houston, as the Fins have given up an average of 37 points over this span. Last week, Miami was mangled in H-Town at the hands of the Texans by a final score of 42-23.
How the Public is Betting the New York-Miami Game
Presently, 61% of the consensus like the Dolphins here as the home chalk. Despite the lean, we have yet to seen the market move. It is worth noting that the Jets closed as a three-point favorite at home the last time these two met with much of the public taking a fondness to Gang Green. On paper, this appears to be the quintessential zig-zag.
Overall, Miami has controlled the ebb and flow of this divisional rivalry as of late as they have won four of the last five contests between both sides. In the last episode of New York vs. Miami, the Dolphins defeated the Jets 20-12 on September 16th at the Meadowlands.
The Jets are nicked up as they have seen the injury bug bite key players on their offense, including running back Bilal Powell and wide-receivers Quincy Enunwa and Robbie Anderson. While Powell is on the IR and Enunwa looks to be gone until Week 12, Anderson is listed as day-to-day and can be back in the fold for this important divisional match-up. This is important because Anderson emerged as Darnold’s best receiving option before he got nicked up for the Chicago game. Against Minnesota in his last outing, Anderson was targeted 10 times by Darnold.
When Miami Has the Ball
Miami’s offense is a marginal operation at the moment. This is a team that sits towards the bottom tier in overall production, averaging just 334.2 yards of offense per game (27th in the league) while scoring a mediocre 21.8 points per game (22nd overall). There are playmakers though on this Dolphins unit, including veteran rusher Frank Gore and the collective receiving corps of Danny Amendola, Jakeem Grant, and DaVante Parker.
When New York Has the Ball
New York’s rushing attack was once a top-ten unit in the NFL. However, due to recent toils the Jets have slipped to 15th in the league in that department (113.8 yards per game) owning an offensive that is even less productive than their counterparts with a 29th-ranked 314.1 yards of total offense per game. The normal recipe for the Todd Bowles-led bunch is to establish the run and allow rookie quarterback Sam Darnold to pass off of it. That will be the game plan in Miami and the Jets maybe able to find success here against the 30th ranked rushing defense in the league. If the Jets can get it going, this will open things up for Darnold to let loose down the backstretch.
Perhaps one of the top selling points in the trends analysis is the fact that the road team is 15-7-2 ATS in the last 24 contests between these two outfits. In essence, home field advantage is a myth in this rivalry. In particular, the Jets are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings despite Miami being the team with more wins to show for.
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The forecast for kick-off is an overcast day with temperatures hovering in the mid 70’s. Humidity will be high as it will hit near 75% which will make the air feel hotter than it actually is. Moreover, the percent chance of precipitation is around 50% which makes a shower at the minimum a very plausible scenario. Rain increases the likelihood of dropped passes or fumbles which could reduce this to a game where the winner makes less mistakes.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York Jets +140
We will go ahead and call for the upset outright here as this game has the same kind of feel and connotation as the first edition of this rivalry in 2018. The Jets will be looking to avenge the ills of September 16th and perhaps may come into this contest the hungrier of the two teams. It is worth mentioning that Miami had scored 20 points unanswered only to be replied by the Jets with 12 unanswered of their own. New York actually had an opportunity to get Miami off the field and get a final attempt to equalize before quarterback Ryan Tannehill hit Frank Gore on a 21-yard pass to secure the victory for Miami in New Jersey. This will undoubtedly be a coaching point and catalyst for the Jets who are also eager to end Miami’s recent dominance of this rivalry. Given the poor play of Miami’s defense alone, they cannot be trusted spotting points to anyone.