New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans Pick

by | Dec 1, 2018 | nfl

New York Jets (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 2nd, 2018 – 4:05 PM ET
Where: Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
TV: CBS
By: Keith Franks, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: NYJ +8 / TEN -8
Total: 40.5
Power Rankings: Tennessee -11

Takeaways From Week 12

The Jets continue to tumble downhill as they have now lost five straight games after falling to arch rival New England on Sunday by a score of 27-13 at MetLife Stadium. The Jets have also failed to cover in their last five outings so they have been as much of a detriment to bettor bankrolls as they have been an eye sore to watch.

Like the Jets, Tennessee also comes in on a skid. The Titans’ are presently riding a two-game losing streak where their defense seemed non-existent as they gave up an average of 36 points against both Indianapolis and most recently Houston. In their last outing, the Titans were defeated in a primetime sport on Monday Night Football where they were ousted from Houston by a score of 34-17 Texans. The Titans failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog and have also gone 0-2 ATS over their present losing streak.

How the Public is Betting the New York-Tennessee Game

Currently we have the Titans - 8 after opening at 9.5 and moving all the way up to 11 and back over the key number of 9 and down to 8. There is a high likelihood that the Jets garner a lot of action here Sunday morning as a result of Tennessee looking so poor before a national audience. Generally, Monday Night games create a ripple effect in where we see overreactions the week after. Tennessee being the loser is in position to benefit from public reluctance to back them, so takers may be able to get them at a reduced price.

The Historicals

The Jets have won the last two meetings between both sides. However, Gang Green has not squared off with the Titans since 2015 where the Jets defeated Tennessee 30-8 to generate an easy cover as an eight-point favorite.

Injury Concerns

Jets quarterback Sam Darnold suffered a foot injury that has him listed as day-to-day. He sports a Q tag for this Sunday’s match-up and was not available in the previous two games. If he is unavailable, veteran signal caller Josh McCown will once again be back at the helm. On the Tennessee side, tackle Taylor Lewan is also listed as day-to-day and questionable after sustaining an injury on Monday Night to his ankle. Lewan is a key pass protector for quarterback Marcus Mariota and instrumental in fostering the Titans run game.

When Tennessee Has the Ball

Tennessee’s calling card has always been their rushing attack. However, the Titans have only produced marginal numbers this season and average a 19th-ranked 111.9 yards per game. Outside of their penchant for the run game, the Titans offense is otherwise anaemic compiling a 30th ranked 190.6 yards through the air and scoring just 17.7 points per game (29th in the NFL).

When New York Has the Ball

The Jets in many ways are a carbon copy of the Titans in their approach to the game and the production they have gotten out of it. New York is ranked just ahead of Tennessee it total offense averaging a 29th-ranked 302.3 yards per game. The Jets score 20.1 points per game (26th in the NFL) and like to lead the way with a proficient running game. The problem for New York is their rushing attack sits 22nd in the league averaging just 103.6 yards per game.

Betting Trends

There are several noteworthy trends leading into the build-up of this AFC clash. First, the Jets are 7-2 ATS in the previous nine matches. Secondly, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the previous five contests and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.

Weather Report

The forecast for kick-off in the Music City is a rainy day with temperatures hovering around the 60-degree mark. The sloppy conditions will have an effect on ball handling and could produce an influx of fumbles given each teams desire to hang their hat on the run.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Tennessee -8

There is no other way to put it other than the Jets look like a dumpster fire. While there may be a propensity for Gang Green to see an inflated allotment given their present form both straight up and against the spread, Tennessee’s poor showing on Monday Night could easily negate that scenario given the potential for a fade from the public come Sunday. The fact remains the Jets have not won a road game since their season opener in the Motor City nearly three months ago. When you factor this trend in with the injuries and disarray on the New York offense, this game can get out of hand really quick if the Jets fall behind early. There is no reason to suspect that the Jets wouldn’t. Previous to the Patriots game, the Jets fell behind by significant margins against the Bills, Dolphins, Bears, and Vikings and were never able to get close to equalizing once each team built a significant lead. In four of their last five losses, the Jets have lost by at least two touchdowns. When you toss all these ingredients into the pot, Tennessee is in position to win this one with respect to home field advantage and given how the Jets lose, the Titans should cover easy while doing so.

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