NFL Showdown: Dolphins vs Raiders – Expert Analysis & Predictions

The Las Vegas Raiders make the trip to South Florida for a Sunday AFC showdown with the Miami Dolphins. The 6-3 Dolphins are coming off a 21-14 loss to Kansas City, which was followed by a bye. They are rested and at home, awaiting the incoming Raiders, who have shown some guts the last few weeks, winning two in a row, including a 16-12 win over the Jets to get to .500 on the season. Who can get it done for us this week at Hard Rock Stadium?

Overlooking the Raiders?

It seems a little odd that the Dolphins would be favorites of this size against a team good enough to be 5-5, but maybe some people think there’s a smoke-and-mirrors aspect to the Raiders and their 5-5 record. It’s not unfounded, with their wins being against the Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Giants and Jets. Their last two games were at home, as well, and the few good teams they faced really hammered them and even some who aren’t that great, with the Bears beating them 30-12. But maybe that type of breakdown misses the whole point.

They have overcome a lot; losing their head coach after eight games is never a good sign for a team. Antonio Pierce moved into the interim role and is 2-0 so far. Aidan O’Connell is starting at QB. They hadn’t been getting much out of Joshua Jacobs and Davante Adams has been missing in action lately. Both showed some life on Sunday in the win over the Jets. It just says something about a team dealing with a lot of personnel issues, rancor in the locker room, and a coaching change that they can stay pointed forward. It gets tougher this week, however. They’re taking to the road, facing a good team that had a week to rest their bones after a loss to another AFC West team in, the Chiefs.

Tough Spot for the Raiders

We saw the Raiders thriving in spots the last two weeks against teams suffering for different reasons. Now, they face a rested and intact squad, one that can levy serious damage on offense. With a loss to the Eagles a few weeks ago and the Chiefs in their last game, a 5-1 Miami start has soured a tad, and a loss here would land them in a mini-midseason crisis they want to avoid. Maybe Pierce is getting through to this team like McDaniels wasn’t, but certain football realities appear likely to come crashing down on the Raiders this week.

Defensively, the Raiders have played adequately most weeks, with Pierce getting them in nice working order the last few games. But we’ve also seen them struggle when facing compelling talent, something they will see in abundance this week with QB Tua Tagovailoa and his receiving crew, led by prolific Tyreek Hill and his quest for a 2000-yard season, along with Jaylen Waddle and other weapons. Running back Devon Achane might be back, and we saw what he and Raheem Mostert were doing as a 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Defensive progress or not, this is a different proposition altogether for the Raiders.

Saving Grace for the Raiders?

Even in this context, not all is doom and gloom for the Raiders. We’ve seen a down-and-out Raiders squad forge winning streaks in recent years with everything going wrong around them, the 2021 season coming to mind. Granted, a lot of the pieces from those teams have departed, but it would make one heck of a story if we look up in a few weeks and see the Raiders making a run at this thing. Maybe they rise to the occasion. If the defense can see what they’ve been doing the last few weeks translate at this elevated level, along with concentrating their attack on Jacobs and Adams, while getting help from nice complimentary pieces like Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer, who knows?

The Value Aspect

Again, this is a ratcheted-up level for the Raiders where the wheels could come off in such a way that 12 points look like nothing. But with two losses in their last three and explosive Miami offensive displays, which are not the constant they were earlier in the season, maybe the Raiders are getting some nice value this week. On one hand, is a Raiders team that strikes many people as a dysfunctional team going against a team whose handful of juggernaut performances this season are some of the stronger images we’ve seen this year. But that’s almost more in the spirit of a worst-case scenario for the Raiders and a best-case scenario for the ‘Fins. Miami will be rested and eager to atone for some recent setbacks, but I’m not sure this sets up for the kind of rollicking Dolphins’ display we’ve seen at times this season.

Take the Points on the Road Underdog

The narrative for the Dolphins coming out this week with a splashy performance isn’t a hard one to envision or substantiate. It just almost seems too easy, and perhaps guilty of ignoring some subtle shifts that have been perceptible the last few weeks. Getting Joshua Jacobs in gear is a big plus for this Vegas offense, as was Davante Adams ending one of his worst career slumps last week and really being due for a big game. This Miami defense is not invulnerable, and if the Raiders show some life on that side of the ball this week, that’s a big number to cover for the Dolphins, especially if the Raiders’ defense continues playing with a different edge. I’ll take a whirl on the Raiders this week.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders plus 12 points.