AFC/NFC Divisional Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks
NFL prop bets are often much easier to beat than point spreads or totals! In this article, Kevin West takes a look at a handful of this week’s NFL props worth betting on!
All of these proposition wagers are offered at Bovada Sportsbook.
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2023 PLAYER PROPS: 59-44 +8.95 Units YTD
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Super Bowl LVIII
KC TE Travis Kelce to NOT score a receiving touchdown (-115) San Fran’s LB’s are athletic and could shut him down. I think both teams run a ton in this game and it’s much lower scoring than most expect.
I’m betting 1 unit on the following players to have the longest reception of the game: George Kittle +500, Deeboo Samuel +550, Marquez Valdes-Scantling +1000 and Christian McCaffrey +1200. This bet will be graded as one win or loss, similar to boxing a horse bet, with a 4 unit risk, with proper units credited if we win. I like Kittle because he’s a better receiving option for SF, since both KC corners are really good. I like Deebo because he breaks tackles and can take it to the house at any given time. I like Valdes-Scantling because his routes are DEEP. I like CMC because he catches a ton of passes and like Deebo, can bust a long one anytime.
Conference Championship Prop Bets
Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs to go OVER 23.5 receiving yards (-135)(Lost) I’m expecting the Lions to be playing from behind. Thiis should create a bunch of dump off opportunities for Gibbs.
Divisional Playoffs Prop Bets
Houston Texans RB Devin Singletary to have UNDER 15.5 rushing attempts (-135)(Won with 9 attempts) I’m forecasting to Ravens to crush in this game. This will force the Texans to have to throw a ton, as teams abandon the run in play-from-behind mode.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to score a TD (-115)(Winner!) The Texans lead the league in rushing touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks. We all know Lamar likes to run the QB keeper and is always a threat to bust a long one.
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy to go UNDER 30.5 pass attempts (-125)(Lost with 39) The Green Bay Packers rushing defense is below average. I think SF runs the ball a TON. I also think the NIners will be playing with the lead, which will limit their need to pass the ball. He could easily beat this by 5+ attempts. I forecast SF to win by double digits, so there’s even a case where he may be pulled the the game early to preserve his health.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love to have more passing yards than Brock Purdy (+120)(Lost 194 to 252) I forecast GB to be playing from behind, which will create the need to pass more, while SF is taking air out of the ball by running a bunch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans to have a reception OVER 26.5 yards (-125)(Winner). Detroit’s secondary is burnt toast. It won’t matter which receiver is on Evans, as they’re all horrible. The Bucs are forecasted to be playing from behind, plus the game is expected to be a boat race, so there should be numerous opportunities for Evans to break a long one.
Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery to go UNDER 66.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)(Won with 47). The Buccaneers run D is above average. I’m expecting the Lions to run a bunch of short passes to Jahmyr Gibbs instead of running into Vita Vea, which should limit Montgomery’s opportunities.
Buffalo Bills WR Stephon Diggs longest reception to go UNDER 21.5 yards (-115)(Won – He only had 21 yards for the whole game) Chiefs corner L’Jarius Sneed is likely to shadow Diggs. Sneed has been playing as good as any corner in the last decade.
Wild Card Weekend Bet Recommendations
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to go OVER 61.5 rushing yards (-125) The Packers Run D is weak. (Lost with 56 – The Pokes got down early and abandoned the run game.)
Week 18 NFL Player Proposition Wagers
Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis to go OVER 36.5 yards receiving (-110) (Lost. Unbelievably, Davis went down with an injury at the start of the game. Ugh!) Diggs gets tough Ramsay coverage and Davis gets burnt toast Eli Apple. He could absolutely go off today. The Bills are in a must win situation to make the playoffs, so motivation is there as well.
I wanted to get a piece of A.J. Brown against Adoree Jackson and with D. Smith out, but Bovada doesn’t have anything up except for touchdown props at time of print, so will have to pass. I’m not posting this as an official play, but I did put lunch money down on Brown/Hyatt to both score a touchdown at 11/1. Very risky bet but could happen. Both have horrible corners on them. Lunch money only!
Week 17 NFL Prop Bets
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-200)(Won) Taylor Heinicke is a HUGE checkdown QB, plus, this tactic worked for the Falcons last weekend when they gave Robinson 10 targets. I’m projecting the rookie RB for 6 receptions Sunday.
San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel to go OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-140)(Lost). He’ll draw super-weak Eric Forbes coverage. Burnt toast! Deebo should hit triple digits today.
Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett to go OVER 53.5 receiving yards (-115)(Loss). D.K. Metcalf is banged up and should see shadow coverate from Porter. This should line Lockett up with burnt toast corner Levi Wallace a bunch. Lockett should have a big day.
Week 16 Player Prop Wagers
New England Patriots TE Mike Gesicki OVER 15.5 yards receiving (-120). (Brutal loss with 15) With Hunter Henry expected to miss Sunday’s game against Denver, Gesicki should see more targets. More importantly, Denver doesn’t defend the tight end position well. Making this play even stronger, is Denver’s corners are tough. This creates a funnel to the tight-end position.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp to go OVER 5.5 receptions (-150)(Won with 6 receptions on 12 targets) The Saints defend perimeter receivers extremely well. Kupp takes most of his snaps in the slot, where the Saints have one of the lowest rated slot corners in the league. Kupp is always Stafford’s first look anyway, but we should see even more attention being paid to one of the best route runners the game has ever seen.
Week 15 NFL Player Props (12/14 through 12/18)
Titans RB Derrick Henry to go OVER 80.5 rushing and receiving yards combined (-115)(Lost: 16 rushes for 9 yards!?!?) There are very few trends I believe in, but this is one of them! Henry has smashed the Texans over the course of his career and we so no reason he won’t go for over 100 yards today, as Tennessee should have good time of possession against a Houston team missing multiple key players.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp to go OVER 5.5 receptions (-165)(Winner with 8) He has a great matchup vs. a weak corner, while Nacua has a tough matchup. He should be a funnel vs. a bad Commanders defense in a fast paced game.
Just these two this week! Week 15 is tricky!
Week 14 Player Proposition Wagers (12/7 through 12/11)
***3 UNIT BEST BET ALERT*** Bengals WR Tee Higgins to go OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-115 3.45 units to win 3 units)(Winner with 72 yards) Higgins is going up against one of the lowest rated corners in the NFL. The Colts secondary is a disaster.
***2 UNIT TOP PLAY*** Vikings WR Jordan Addison to go OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-120 2.4 units to win 2 units)(Lost with Addison 27 yards) Addison will mostly see Patriots castoff Jack Jones most of the afternoon and should capitalize as the defense will be focusing on Justin Jefferson.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson to go OVER 71.5 rushing yards (-115)(Lost with 34) The Bucs are missing multiple key defensive players and Vita Vea may be one of them. If he does play, he’ll be banged up which spells trouble for the Bucs run defense. Atlanta has finally gotten comfortable with feeding this trick-toes running back. He’s a legit game breaker who can take it to the house on any carry for any distance.
Bears QB Justin Fields to go OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-115)(Lost with 58) The Lions don’t defend running quarterbacks well. In Fields’ last three games vs. Detroit, he’s run for 104, 137 and 147 yards. I’m not a fan of betting trends, but this is much more than a trend. Detroit simply doesn’t defend running quarterbacks well. It appears to be Chicago’s new game plan too. Fields has 12 and 18 carries over his last two games.
Texans WR Nico Collins to go UNDER 66.5 receiving yards (-115)(Won with 13) Much is being made of Tank Dell being out and Nico getting more looks. That may happen, but I don’t expect much success as he’ll have shutdown cornere D.J. Reed glued to him. I think this game will be a low scoring game where the Texans will be forced to throw to their running backs and tight ends more.
Indianapolis Colts RB Zack Moss to score a TD (-130)(Moss failed to score) This guy is on the field for almost every snap. I expect the Colts to be able to score on Cinci in what I believe will be a fairly high scoring game.
Ravens RB Gus Bus Edwards to score a TD (+125)(Edwards failed to score) I’m expecting the Ravens to thump the Rams Sunday. Lamar Jackson was sick this week (although a reporter said he looks fine) and Edwards gets all the carries within the 5-yard line, where the Ravens should find themselves a few times this week.
49ers QB Brock Purdy to throw UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-160)(Purdy got picked off in a tipped pass – Argh!) Purdy has only thrown one interception over his past four games. I’m expecting the Niners to CRUSH Seattle on Sunday, which will limit his risky passes, as they’ll run the ball more. I project Purdy to throw the ball around 25 times in Week 14. In the SEVEN games in which he’s had 27 or less attempts, he’s thrown a grand total of ONE pick!
Bills QB Josh Allen to go OVER 33.5 rushing yards (-130)(We lost on Allen taking a knee at the end of the game!) Allen ran 9 times for 81 yards last week. I’m betting that the Bills new OC is making this a bigger part of the offense, as the team is a completely different monster with defenses having to worry about him taking off.
Week 13 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions (11/30 through 12/4)
(MNF) Jacksonville Jaguars RB D’Ernest Johnson to go OVER 28.5 rushing/receiving yards (combined) (-120)(Lost with 9. The Jags never got a lead as expected and this play absolutely bombed out). Starting running back Travis Etienne has banged up ribs. It’s highly doubtful their going to give him a full workload in a game where the Jaguars are expected to crush a really bad Bengals defense with a backup QB with no experience is playing on the road. This should be a smash spot for the Jags. Etienne is banged up with a rib issue, so Johnson will likely be sprinkled in throughout the game and probably even take over all carries in the fourth quarter. I actually bet Johnson to have the most rushing yards in this game at 10-1 odds, but am not making that an official play here, as it was a lunch money bet. Definintely worth throwing a twenty on though!
Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins to go OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-135)(Easy winner with 75). He’ll get WEAK outside corner coverage on BOTH sides.
Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth to go OVER 3.5 receptions (-120)(Tough luck loss with 3. Pickett went down early with an injury and Trubisky is HORRIBLE). He was used heavily in last week’s game and the Cardinals don’t cover the tight end position well. The Steelers look MUCH better since OC Matt Canada got fired. Last week, Tyler Higbee roasted Arizona for two touchdowns!
Texans RB Devin Singletary to go OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-120)(Lost with 36. Houston reinserted Pierce as their lead back, which came out of left field. Ugh!) The Broncos run defense is horrible. I forecast the Texans to have the lead in this game, which means they’ll run the ball a bunch, with Singletary being the main beneficiary.
Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel to go OVER 38.5 rushing/receiving yards combined (-115)(Crushed with 65). The Commanders are forecasted to be playing from behind most of the day, as their garbage defense likely won’t be able to stop the Miami Dolphins high-flying offense. This number is way off.
Week 12 Player Prop Selections (11/23 through 11/27)
Tampa Bay WR Trey Palmer to have 25+ receiving yards (-150)(Lost with 4 catches for 17 measly yards. Palmer dropped a slant pass over the middle in which he would have gone for 40 yards. UGH!) Palmer gets bad Darrell Baker Jr. coverage who PFF rates at a lowly 47. Baker is an undrafted free agent that doesn’t belong on an NFL football field.
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs to go OVER 74.5 receiving yards (-145)(Lost by a half yard – Are you kidding me!?!? Dude dropped 2 passes in OT!) The squeeky wheel should get greased against a very burnable Bradberry. Diggs has had two really tough matchups in a row, but should resume double digit targets in Week 12 vs. a porous Eagles secondary in a game that should be fast paced and back and forth.
Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to go OVER 60.5 rushing/receiving yards combined (-115)(Winner with 104). The Texans will struggle to run the ball against a stout Jags run defense. This will force them to pass more, in which Collins has a stellar matchup against a low rated corner in Montaric Brown.
Dallas Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks to have 25+ receiving yards (-250)(Won with 72). He’ll be matched up against a backup corner as Emmanuel Forbes is expected to miss Thursday. The Washington Commanders defense is putrid. Dallas has shown a huge propensity to pass lately. It’s feasible that Cooks wins this bet on one play.
Week 11 NFL Player Props (11/16 through 11/20)
Philadelphia Eagles WR Julio Jones to go OVER 12.5 rushing/receiving yards combined (Lost with 2 catches for 5 yards) With Dallas Goedert down and the Eagles coming out of a bye, I’m betting tney worked the ex-Pro Bowler into some plays. Backup TE Stoll is more of a blocker. I expect Julio to see 3+ targets and easily cash in over 12.5 yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley to go OVER 3.5 receptions (-135)(Winner with 7). The Titans and Jaguars should play to a neutral game script, keeping the pass in play throughout. The Titans defend the run well and have been a pass funnel defense for years. Ridley will see quite a bit of Kristian Fulton on defense, who is one of the weaker corners in the NFL with a 55 PFF rating.
San Francisco 49ers WR Deebo Samuel to go OVER 64.5 rushing/receiving yards combined (-115)(Lost with 62). Deebo’s in a smash spot in Week 11 against a TB defense that plays zone. Purdy is extremely efficient against this format. Samuel is also really good at yards after contact. I wouldn’t be surprised if he supasses 100 yards against the Buccaneers.
D.K. Metcalf to have 50+ receiving yards (-230)(Won with 94). This is a horrific matchup for Rams CB Cobie Durant, who gives up four inches and almost 50 pounds to Metcalf. I expect the Seahawks to be playing from behind Sunday, forcing them to pass the ball more. Furthermore, Tyler Lockett is banged up so Metcalf should get a few extra looks.
Week 10 Prop Bet Predictions (11/9 through 11/13)
MNF Prop (Added Monday at 5:43PM ET) Bills WR Gabe Davis to go OVER 39.5 receiving yards (Winner with 56) The crafty route runner and deep threat gets Fabian Moreau coverage, which is some of the weakest in the NFL. Making this play even stronger, is that Diggs will have Surtain on him, an above average corner, which should funnel more passes Davis’s way.
Steelers RB Najee Harris to score a touchdown (+105)(Won with a TD in the first quarter!) Green Bay’s run defense stinks and they’ll likely be without LB Quay Walker Sunday. He should have a field day, despite sharing carries with J. Warren, as his running style is right up the middle, exactly where the Packers act as a wet paper bag.
MNF Prop Steelers RB Najee Harris to go OVER 40 yards (-230)(Easy winner with 82 yards). For the same reasons as noted above on his TD prop bet. I expect Pitt to be playing with the lead, so he’ll get more carries than usual.
Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett to go OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-105)(Winner with 8 receptions for 92 yards). The crafty WR gets one of the worst cover-men in the NFL in Week 10.
Week 9 NFL Player Props (11/5 through 11/6)
Jets RB Breece Hall to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-185)(Easy winner with four. This bet covered in the first quarter. He’d have had double digits but the Jets got so far behind they actually sat him. Carter came in and grabbed six balls) The Jets offensive line is very poor. They know Hall is their key to success, and they’ll do whatever they can to get him involved. The most efficient way to do that is with short dump-offs/passes. I think he could get around seven receptions tonight. New York is expected to be playing from behind, which makes this play even stronger, as they’ll likely need to rely on the passing game more than usual.
Browns RB Jerome Ford to go OVER 40 rushing yards (-190)(Winner with 44) Ford was eased back in last week after an injury. He should resume his full-time roll in Week 9 vs. a very weak Cardinals rush defense that has been gashed this season.
Bears TE Cole Kmet to catch 4+ passes (+100)(Winner with 6) The Bears are projected to get beat badly in Week 9. This will force the team to throw in the second half in an effort to stay in the game. WR DJ Moore will have to deal with nasty Saints stud CB Lattimore and will likely be neutralized. This and the fact that the Saints will rush Bagent a bunch will result in short passes to Kmet. He had ten targets last week and should get a bunch Sunday as well.
Packers RB Aaron Jones to score a TD (+140)(Jones hit paydirt in the 2nd quarter). Green Bay coaches are “unleashing” the speedy running back, which should result in a ton of touches. I anticipate Green Bay to have the ball a ton in Week 9 due to Rypien being ineffective. The Pack are dead set on getting Jones going, as their season is already on the line.
Texans RB Devin Singletary to go UNDER 66.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)(Easy winner with 26). Much is being made about him starting in place of Dameon Pierce, but Texas is down to their third string center and Vita Vea is a major run-stuffer. Singletary is going nowhere Sunday.
Panthers QB Bryce Young to have OVER 225 passing yards (-125)(Lost with 173. Young looked like a little kid running around with a pop gun). The Indy pass defense is in shambles. One or more of the Panthers receivers (Thielen/Chark/Mingo) is going to bust loose for a couple of long gainers. Indy’s secondary is HORRIBLE.
Week 8 Football Prop Bets (10/26 through 10/30)
Las Vegas Raiders TE Michael Mayer to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-115)(Loss) The big tight end has surpassed Austin Hooper on the depth chart and has seen 71% or more of snaps over the past two games. The Raiders coaching staff has pubIicly said they want to get him more involved in the offense. I expect the Raiders to be down tonight and be forced to throw a bunch in the second half. The Lions are vulnerable to tight ends over the middle, as evidenced by their defense allowing the second most receptions and yards in the NFL to the position.
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle to go OVER 4.5 receptions (-125)(Winner! 7 catches on 12 targets) Belichick likes to take away the other team’s best player and in this case, that would be Tyreek Hill. This will create more opportunities for Waddle. I’m projecting Waddle to catch around eight balls today.
Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce to go OVER 64.5 rushing and receiving yards combined (-115)(Huge loser with 46. I thought Texas would involve him more in their gameplan after the bye. Singletary isn’t the answer to anything, but continues to share snaps.) The Panthers are absolutely horrible and missing a ton of players on defense. It’s rumored that the team is looking to “get Pierce going.”
TNF – Kahlil Shakir to go OVER 18.5 receiving yards (-120)(Won with 92!) The Buffalo Bills run a ton of two tight end sets. Two of their three TE’s are OUT this week. This will force them to run more three wide receiver sets, and Shakir will be the beneficiary.
TNF – Dalton Kincaid to have 25+ receiving yards (Winner with 65) As noted above with the Shakir prop, Buff’s other two TEs won’t play tonight. Allen likes his tight ends. Kincaid got eight receptions last week and should be peppered again tonight as TB has a decent set of cornerbacks. The standard line for this bet is 40, but I’m betting the alternative line because I’m a litle bit worried that Vita Vea may miss tonight, and the Bills may lean on the run more than usual. On the bright side, I see this game being somewhat close (Bills have TONS of defenders out tonight), which would keep the Buffalo pass game in action throughout, opposed to taking the air out of the ball with the run game in the second half.
Week 7 NFL Player Proposition Wagers (10/19 through 10/23)
MNF: Ray-Ray McCloud OVER 1.5 receptions (-110)(Winner with 2 catches). With Deebo Samuel not playing, Ray-Ray McCloud sees one of the weakest corners in the NFL in B. Murphy. He should be on the field a bunch as he saw 73% of snaps last week. I can make a case for SF throwing a little bit more in this game because CMC is banged up and Mitchell is coming off an injury.
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson to have the most rushing yards in the Atl/TB game (+150)(Lost – He sat out most of game with a migraine) His snap count is way up and TB’s run defense is poor.
Bills WR Gabe Davis to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-165)(Lost with 1 catch on 5 targets) Belichick likes to take away the other team’s biggest threat, which in this case is Diggs. Davis should hit this number by halftime.
Browns RB Jerome Ford to go OVER 60 rushing yards (-115)(Won with 74 yards) Did you see Minshew play (stink) last week? The Browns defense should dominate the Colts Sunday, giving them a nice time of possession, playing with a lead which creates more runs and taking the air out of the ball. The Colts NT is out as well. Cleveland offensive line is great and should create holes for Ford to exploit. He has an upside of 100 yards in this game. Kareem Hunt is banged up and might be limited or even miss. I like this bet so much that I’m playing it in small increments for every 10 yards up to 110. Over 110 yards pays +750.
Raiders WR Davante Adams to have the most receiving yards in the LV/Chi game (+160)(Won with 57 yards). There’s whispers of Adams being frustrated with his lack of usage. Look for him to be force-fed against a Bears team vying for top draft picks, not wins. It might seem a bit sketchy placing this bet with Hoyer at QB, but he’s formidable.
Giants WR Jalin Hyatt to go over 1.5 receptions (-135)(Winner with 2 receptions). I had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming when I found this line. Hyatt’s snap count is way up as he’s surpassing Hodgins on the depth chart, as evidenced by his count spiking from 46% to 73%. He’s super athletic and creates space, unlike Hodgins who is slow and more of short ADOT possession receiver. I like this play even more with Tyrod at QB, who looks a whole lot better than Daniel Jones, who is likely to miss.
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker to go OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-120)(Easy winner with 105). His offensive line is getting healthier and Arizona has a horrible run defense, especially up the middle. I project Walker to lead the league in rushing in Week 7 with a ceiling of 150 yards.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford to go OVER 22.5 completions (-115)(Lost with 16). The Rams top two running backs are out and McVay isnt thrilled with any of the backups. I’m expecting a ton of short passes today with an upside of 30+ completions.
Packers WR Romeo Doubs to go OVER 40 receiving yards (+100)(Loser with 30 yards). Surtain is likely to shadow Watson, so this would leave Mathis (one of the worst covermen in the NFL) on Doubs. This play does come with some risk though! It’s very possible that they run the heck out of Aaron Jones, as Denver’s rushing defense has been poor this season, although it’s getting better. I’ll take my chances here though, as Mathis is that bad.
Week 6 Prop Bets (10/12 through 10/16)
Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley to go OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-135)(Lost with 30. Ridley had 8 targets but only came down with 4 catches) The Jags get LT Cam Robinson back, which should stabilize the line. Ridley roached these same Colts in Week 1 for 101 yards. It doesn’t matter which corner covers Ridley, the whole secondary is weak. Trevor Lawrence has an 82% completion rate over the last three meetings with Indy. The game is projected to say close without, meaning we should see a neutral game script, keeping the passing game in play throughout.
Bears WR DJ Moore to go OVER 4.5 receptions (-110)(Winner with 5 catches) The Bears have made it a point to include Moore in their gameplan. Since that time, he’s gone ham with eight receptions in each of his last two games. The weather could be crappy Sunday, however, they’ll likely just shorten his routes, as he has that skill set in his repertoire.
Falcons WR Drake London to go OVER 3.5 receptions (-125)(Won with 9) Arthur Smith has loosened up the reigns a bit on Ridder. London will see a ton of Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who is one of the lowest rated corners in the NFL. Game script is forecasted to be neutral, which will keep the pass in play.
Rams RB Kyren Williams to go OVER 66.5 rushing yards (-115)(Winner with 158!) The Rams rushing defense has been shredded as of late, especially up the middle where Williams runs often. With the Rams forecasted to win the game, we should see a steady dose of the run game in which Williams doesn’t really have much competition for snaps
Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bet Predictions
MNF – Raiders RB Josh Jacobs to go OVER 72.5 rushing yards (-115)(Lost with 69) The Packers run defense is a wet paper bag right now. They’ve allowed 189 rushing yards in three of their four games this season. I’m projecting Las Vegas to win this game, meaning they’ll have the lead and Jacobs should get a bunch of carries in the second half. I’ve got his ceiling at around 125 yards.
Ravens WR Odell Beckham to go OVER 25 receiving yards (-110)(Lost with 13). He’ll see a bunch of burnt toast CB Levi Wallace Sunday. I expect this bet to be a winner by halftime!
Texans RB Dameon Pierce to go OVER 51.5 rushing yards (+105)(Winner with 66 yards). Houston’s offensive line gets multiple starters back in a game that should play evenly and get the powerful running back close to 20 carries.
Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert OVER 45.5 rushing yards (-115)(Won with 65). Many think Mostert has been passed on the depth chart by the speedy Achane. I’m not one of them. I think Achane got a ton of run because they were down to Buffalo huge and Achane is the 3rd down/receiving back. I expect Miami to blast the Gmen Sunday and for Miami to take the air out of the ball with a ton of rushes.
Bengals TE Irv Smith to go OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-115)(Lost – 0 receptions!). Smith was seeing 75% of snaps before he went out with an injury. Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league at covering the tight end position and they’ll need him, as Tee Higgins is out.
Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-115)(Lost with 12 yards + a nasty long pass interference call where he beat the corner. Ugh!). He plays over 50% of snaps in a fast paced game where he’ll see a ton of Murphy Jr. coverage who is very slow footed.
Jets RB Breece Hall go to OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-135)(Smashed with 177 yards) The Broncos are putrid at stopping the run.
Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. to go OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-135)(Lost)(Posted at 8:10PM ET) I believe the Bears get beat up in this game and gamescript will have the Commanders running the ball a ton in the second half. The Bears are horrible at defending both the run and pass.
Week 4 NFL Player Prop Predictions (9/28 through 10/2)
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett OVER 50 receiving yards (-140)(Win 54) The crafty WR is up against a very weak corner.
49ers TE George Kittle to go OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-120)(Lost 9). Arizona doesn’t defend tight ends well. It’s possible Kittle could get all these yards in one whack, as he’s both a deep threat and runs strong after contact.
Texans WR Nico Collins to go OVER 50.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)(Smashed with 168) The 6’4″ 215 lb, 4.43 40-yard dash runner gets the mega-burnable 6’0″ 179 lb 4.63 Levi Wallace coverage. I don’t use this phrase, but will here… “It’s time to cook!”
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans to go UNDER 59.5 receiving yards (-120)(Winner with 40). Evans will draw a ton of Marshon Lattimore coverage. Lattimore is to Evans as Kryptonite is to Superman. Lattimore is in this guys head and it wouldn’t surprise me to see TB completely avoid throwing in his direction.
Bears WR DJ Moore to go OVER 50 receiving yards (+110)(Won with 131). The crafty receiver will draw burnable Mathis coverage, who is rated as one of the worst corners in the NFL. Fields should have ample time to make accurate throws, as Denver gets no push at the line of scrimmage.
Bills RB Latavius Murray to score a touchdown (+240)(Loss). The Mia/Buf game has the potential to be very high scoring. Buffalo is inserting Murray into the game in short yardage/red zone situations as a battering ram to keep both Josh Allen and James Cook healthy. I think his true odds of scoring are closer to +150, so I view this as a value bet. (It would cash better than once every 2.4 games)
Bears QB Justin Fields to go OVER 58.5 yards rushing (-115)(Lost w/25). Denver’s defense is absolutely horrible. Their D-Line gets no push whatsoever. This game should play farily even throughout, meaning Fields won’t have to throw as much as they shouldn’t be playing from behind. He had 11 carries last week, despite being down big. This is a good sign that the coaching staff may be throwing in some designed runs, because what they were doing before surely wasn’t working!
Panthers WR Adam Thielen to go OVER 4.5 receptions (-125)(Won with 7). Lots to like about this prediction as Thielen will be playing against his old team, Mingo is likely out, the Panthers will likely need to pass because Minnesota is likely to be ahead and Thielen is the team’s number one WR. Note: I couldn’t find any receiving yard props for D.J. Chark, but I would bet the over if one is available. He’s runs a 4.35 40-yard dash and the CB on him most of the day runs a 4.55!
TNF (Added on Thursday at 7:46PM ET). Packers TE Luke Musgrave to go UNDER 3.5 receptions (-145)(Winner 1 Rec). With Aaron Jones and Christian Watson back, Musgrave takes a back seat on the targets. The Pack are missing multiple offensive linemen too, so Musgrave who is a big body may have to stay in and block.
Week 3 Pro Football Props
MNF (Added on Monday at 6:37PM ET) Eagles WR A.J. Brown to go OVER 70 receiving yards (-110)(Winner! 131 yards!) Bucs corner Carlton Davis is OUT and Brown was complaining about his lack of targets in thier last game. Tampa Bay has a formidable run defense, so it’s very likely that Philly attacks them through the air and against the weakest link in the chain. The squeeky wheel gets oiled tonight vs. a second stringer!
Lions TE Sam Laporta to go OVER 3.5 receptions (Win – 8 Catches). ARSB is banged up, Reynolds is dealing with a hamstring issue and Montgomery is out, which I believe they’ll take to the air more, as they’re really a better team when they do. LaPorta should be the first to benefit from all that. He looks GOOD so far this season.
Commanders RB Brian Robinson to go OVER 60 rushing yards (Winner! 70 Yards Rushing) Bad weather would prompt both teams to run more. The Bills run defense is below average, especially up the middle, which is exactly where Robinson likes to work.
Vikings RB Alexander Mattison to go OVER 50 rushing yards (Won – 93 Yds) The Chargers invite the run to limit passing yards. Furthermore, the Vikings are expected to get Darrisaw and Bradbury back. Two important cogs to the Vikings run game. This game should have a high pace with positive game flow. Mattison should fly by this number.
Browns WR Amari Cooper to go OVER 60 yards receiving (Won – 116) The Titans run defense is stout. The Titans secondary is putried. Watson loves to hit Cooper and it should be available all day as he’s one of the best route runners in the game and up against second rate defensive backs.
Chiefs RB Pacheco to go OVER 48.5 yards rushing (Won 62). I’m projecting the Chiefs to destroy the Bears. It’s possible KC puts up a 50-burger Sunday. Teams generally take the air out of the ball with big leads, which should give Pacheco extra carries against a non-existent run defense. There is some risk here as Pacheco had a hamstring bruise and missed some practice this week. If they get a fat lead, they may sit him and bring in CEH. However, he could easily cover this bet before halftime! The Bears D is that bad!
Thursday Night Football – Elijah Mitchell to go OVER 32.5 yards (Winner 42 yards) Christian McCaffrey had a full load on Sunday. There’s no way the 49ers are going to give him another full load on a short week. Mitchell didn’t get any touches last week. They were probably sitting him to rest him up for tonight’s game. As a sidenote, you can get Mitchell at +750 to have the most rushing yards in the game. I’m not calling that a bet here, but I will be putting lunch money on it.
Week 2 NFL Props
MNF Prop Bet Pick: (Updated on 9/18 at 6:10PM ET) Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen to go OVER 30.5 yards receiving (+100)(Won 54 yards) The Panthers will likely run as much as they can, but it shouldn’t be hard for veteran receiver Adam Thielen to go over 30.5 yards as the OC will surely be scheming a gameplan to avoid shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore. Even better than that, Thielen will draw Alontae Taylor in coverage, who PFF has rated at a lowly 38.4.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert to lead the NFL in passing yards (+750)(Lost). The Tennessee Titans secondary is bad. To make matters worse, the Titans will be operating without CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and starting SS Amani Hooker (concussion). Another positive we have going for us here is that Tennessee’s run defense is STOUT. As of Saturday afternoon, Ekeler is listed as doubtful, so I’m expecting a ton of passing attempts out of Herbert in Week 2. Note: Don’t mistake this for me thinking LAC will crush. I like the Titans to win the game!
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to go OVER 220 passing yards (-130)(Winner: 317 yards). Chicago’s secondary is horrific and their defense line gives no push up front. I am no fan of Mayfield, but he should be able to hit some deep shots with time in the pocket. It’s when he’s rushed is when he gets in trouble. I’m also expecting Mike Evans to have a big day.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans to go OVER 3.5 receptions (-170)(Easy winner: Evans went 6/171) . With the Bears secondary being so crappy and getting no push up front, Mayfield should be able to cover this bet before the end of the third quarter!
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson to score a TD (+110)(Lost – I won’t be betting this again anytime soon. Ridder likes to run and Tyler Allgeier is used in goalline situations a bunch). Green Bay is known for two kinds of swiss… Swiss cheese and swiss run defense. I expect him to get more run in Week 2 after looking absolutely amazing in Week 1. He may even get in the box more than once. Atlanta has a plus offensive line and Atlanta’s three running backs may push for 200+ yards. Especially since Arthur Smith doesn’t like to throw the ball. Ridder’s adot and lack of passing attempts last week were LOW and I expect the same Sunday.
Titans Running Back Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-152)(Won). The Bolts can’t stop the run and Vrabel trusts Tannehill ZERO. I thought this line would be closer to -200, so am stoked to only have to lay -152.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta to go OVER 25 receiving yards (-220)(Winner! He caught 5 balls for 63 yards) This guy’s snap rate was 83% last week and the Seattle Seahawks are VERY poor at covering tight ends.
Week 1 NFL Prop Bet Picks
Commanders RB Brian Robinson to score a TD +150 (Won). Arizona is a real clown show this season. They’ll be starting Joshua Dobbs, who was recently signed. Their line play is horrible too. They’re already tanking before Week 1 has begun! Robinson should get a massive workload in a game where the Commanders will have positive gameflow. He may even score twice today.
Saints WR Chris Olave to catch more than 4.5 balls (-130)(Win – Olave caught 8 balls for 112 yards on 10 targets) The word in camp is that Carr and Olave work well together. Carr is a QB that can tend to favor a receiver, so this sets up well for Olave, who will be facing one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see the crafty receiver receive double-digit targets in Week 1.
Packers RB Aaron Jones to rush for more than 58.5 yards (-110)(Lost – Jones smoked Chicago but went down with a hamstring injury, never to return to the game) The Bears run defense looks very weak going into the season. Jones gashed them last season and with Green Bay missing at least one key receiver (possibly 2), Jones should have a bigger workload in Week 1.
Rams TE Tyler Higbee to go OVER 5.5 receptions (+120)(Loss – Higbee started off good but ended up with only 3 receptions. Nacua and Atwell stole the show with a combined 23 targets!) With Cooper Kupp out, a bunch of targets will open up for Rams receivers. Stafford will trust Higbee more than the others because he’s experienced and they’ve had a good connection in the past. Seattle doesn’t cover tight ends all too well either.
Seattle WR D.K. Metcalf to go OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-115)(Metcalf ended up with only 47 yards on 5 targets. Unbelievable considering the Rams started 2 weak/inexperienced corners. Bozo the Carroll in full effect!)The Rams are playing very weak corners in Week 1 and Metcalf is on track for the alpha role this season. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see him lead the NFL in receiving in Week 1.