NFL Line Move Plays

Predictem doesn’t offer a line movement tracker, but this page is as good as anything you’ll find. First,  because it’s free. Second, because we reverse engineer the line move, pinpoint what caused it, and provide analysis which us determine if it’s worth betting. We’ll update this page midweek, then again late Saturday night. This should be one of the more profitable NFL picks pages you’ll find on the web!

YTD: 3-2-0 +0.80 Units

Week 3 (9/22 through 9/26): The Atlanta Falcons opened as +3 road underdogs at Seattle. The line has been bet down to +1. The Falcons are a much improved team, while Seattle is weak on both sides of the ball. They got absolutely crushed by the Niners last week, and even though they won their game vs. the Denver, the Broncos beat themselves. If you watched the game, you’d have seen that Denver should have won by two touchdowns. I’m betting Atlanta +1. That’s it for line move plays this week. There’s been plenty of movement, but not anything I feel good about. Good luck today!

Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): The San Francisco 49ers opened as -8.5 home favorites against th Seattle Seahawks and have been bet up to -9.5, despite only 33% wagering on the Niners. This is a horrible matchup for Seattle, who looked decent on MNF, but could have easily lost by 14+ points had Denver not beat themselves with penalties and fumbles. The Hawks lost the heart of their defense in Week 1 (Jamal Adams), they’re playing on a short week and don’t match up well with SF at all, as we’re projecting the defensive line to eat the Seahawks OL alive. Don’t read too much into San Fran’s Week 1 performance at Soldier Field, The field conditions were miserable and that variable won’t be in play in Week 2. Lay the points with the San Francisco 49ers and enjoy a blowout winner! (Won 27-7).

Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened up as -3.5 road favorites at New Orleans. TB is an unwarranted favorite on the road in Week 2 as their whole offensive line is banged up, almost all of their wide receivers are hurt or questionable and Chris Godwin will miss. Marcus Lattimore has more or less owned Mike Evans who has a calf issue. The Saints defense is above average. This game projects to be a slugfest and low scoring. We’re not into Jameis Winston revenge game theories, but you can throw that in too if that’s your thing. The spread has dropped from -3.5 to 3, and even 2.5 at some online sportsbooks. Bad spot for TB. We’re betting the Saints at +3 (lost 20-10)

Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): The Indianapolis Colts opened as -4.5 road favorites against Jacksonville. The line has been bet down a full point and a half despite the general betting public hammering the Colts to the tune of 61%. Indy will be without two wide receivers (Pittman/Pierce) and multiple key defensive players are banged up as well. The Colts haven’t won @Jags since 2014, spanning six straight losses on Jacksonville’s home field. This is a rough spot for Indy and we project the Jaguars to win win this game straight up (Won 24-0).

Week 1 (9/8 through 9/12): The Philadelphia Eagles opened as -3.5 road favorites against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are improved this season, but this matchup is horrid for the Lions, as it puts them in a situation in which they’re horrible defensive line is going up against the Eagles top ranked offensive line. Don’t be surprised if Miles Sanders comes back from the dead and puts up 100 yards or more. Philly’s defense looks good this season as well. The public is hitting Philly to the tune of 62% and the Eagles are receiving bets from sharps/wiseguys as well. We anticipate the Eagles to win by a touchdown or more. (Philly blew a huge 38-21 fourth quarter lead and we lost 38-35)

The New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans game opened at +6.5 and has been bet down to +5.5 as of Saturday night. The G-Men have made a huge upgrade at head coach, their offensive line and Saquon Barkley appears to be healthy. Oddsmakers are pulling the wool over bettor’s eyes assuming that the general consensus still see the Giants as a bad team. Unbelievably, over 70% of football bettors believe the Titans are going to cover. We make this line at NYG +2.5. (Won 21-20)

What Causes NFL Line Moves

There are a number of variables that cause a point spread or money line odds to move. The first notion is that bookies like to have balanced action. This way, you bet one side, I bet the other, and they collect the vigorish. Mind you; this is a perfect world type of situation for the book. I use the word “Notion” because I’ve personally seen a sportsbook be completely one-sided and hold its ground because they like its position. So it’s not always a lock that they’re trying to balance action.

When the sportsbook gets one-sided, they’ve move the point spread in an effort to attempt to attract bettors on the other team. They obviously don’t want to move the spread too much, otherwise, a margin is created where a bettor who got in early can come back and bet on the other side creating what’s called a middle. Sharp bettors jump at the opportunity to bet “middles”, as they only need to cash in one in every 21 bets to break even. This is a pretty astute way of making money, and believe me, when I saw there are people out there making a living doing so. (more so in college basketball)

The second reason lines move in the NFL is sharp action. Astute handicappers with big bankrolls hammer one side of a game which forces the books to move their lines. These bettors are referred to as sharps, wiseguys, and, if it’s a group, “betting syndicates.” This type of a bettor is super rare but has the ability to move lines with their wagering action. This bettor has boots on the ground at practices, is tied into team beat writers, has computer programs that run simulations and is tuned in to the weather, and has very deep knowledge of the game. If you see a line move on a game and can’t decipher what caused it, there’s a good chance a sharp has found value and acted on it.

The third reason lines move is the weather. Rain, wind, and snow create issues for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends alike. Rain makes it tough to get a footing and makes for a slippery ball. The wind obviously affects the flight of the ball and creates problems when it exceeds 15MPH. Lastly, snow creates slipperiness and visibility issues and, when in big amounts, can make some players not want to be on the field. Today’s NFL is a bit different than that of the old days, as there are more domed stadiums in play these days. Tip: As noted prior, wind affects a quarterbacks passing ability when it exceeds 15 miles per hour. This is not my opinion. It’s statistically proven. Keep a close eye on the NFL stadium’s weather. It can make you some good money!

The Holy Grail: Reverse Line Movement

If you’re a novice football bettor but serious about winning, we highly recommend keeping an eye on line moves where the general public is betting in the opposite direction. This is a clear sign of sharp action and is one of few instances in which we don’t have a problem with betting on a game blindly. Example: The Los Angeles Chargers are a -7 point favorite against the Green Bay Packers. The line drops down to Green Bay +4. However, the general consensus is that 70% of bettors are siding with the Chargers. This is a huge signal that sharps are hammering the team whose point spread has dropped. The question now becomes, “has the line moved so much that there’s no more value?” This is a good time to mention the importance of knowing NFL key numbers (common final score margins). Generally speaking, these numbers consist of 3, 4, 6, and 7, and if you cross too many, there’s a good chance that you got to the party too late and the value doesn’t exist anymore. NFL betting isn’t easy!

Live Betting

Needless to say, if you’re betting a game live-in-progress, the line is going to move often. This article was built with pre-game betting in mind. On an unrelated note, numerous sportsbooks offer live wagering. Most of the platforms out there leave something to be desired, as you have to click a bunch of times to get your bet down, and oftentimes, the damn line has moved while you’re attempting to complete this protocol. If you’re a person who enjoys betting games live, we HIGHLY recommend checking out the live betting platform at Bovada Sportsbook. It absolutely blows away all the rest in terms of quality, ease of use, and pick-to-click efficiency! They also offer a 50% signup bonus up to $250, rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose, and they pay fast if you’re using crypto!

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