NFL Underdog of the Week Pick

Each week of the NFL season, we’ll post what we believe to be the best underdog bet on the board. Our goal is to have this recommended bet posted by Friday night each week, but it’s always good to check back Sunday morning in case we run into late-breaking news or have an additional play.

The weekly prediction will usually be against the spread but may be a money line bet if the situation warrants. We’ll always post a short analysis to support our pick as well! Always beware of any website or sports service that doesn’t give reasons why they’re making a play. Lots of coin flippers out there!

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Week 3 Underdog Pick: 9/21 through 9/25) Posted by Friday or Saturday!

Week 2 Underdog Play: (9/14 through 9/18) Tennessee Titans +2.5 (Winner! 27-24). The Chargers won’t be able to stop the run and Tennessee has the better defense. The Bolts MLB is out and so is his backup. Austin Ekeler will miss and Kelly doesn’t have the same receiving prowess. He’s likely to get stuffed on his rushing attempts as Mike Vrabel really focuses on shutting the other teams run game down. Joey Bosa has a hamstring issue and might not play. I am a bit concerned with Tennessee’s secondary and the Chargers could have some chunk yardage plays, but with no effective run game and a defense that got gouged last week, Tennessee is likely to grind out a victory here. Lastly, it nearly takes an act of God to knock an NFL game off of a +3 spread, and it’s happened here as the bookies are currently listing the Titans at +2.5 (As of Saturday evening). This isn’t our NFL prop bets page, but I’m also betting Derrick Henry to go OVER on rushing yards. I see one of those massive games coming where he gets fed the ball 22-25 times and goes for over 150 yards. LAC’s run defense is that bad.

Week 1 Dog: (9/7 through 9/11) Cleveland Browns +2 (Won 24-3)

Super Bowl 57 (2/12): Kevin West likes the Eagles to win, so no underdog is applicable.

Championship Weekend (1/29) San Francisco 49ers +2.5

Divisional Playoffs: (1/21 through 1/22) I’m not confident in any of the underdogs this weekend so passing.

Wildcard Weekend: (1/14 through 1/16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (Lost 31-14)

Week 18: (1/7 through 1/8) Houston Texans +2.5 (Won 32-31)

Week 17 (12/29 through 1/2) Chicago Bears +6 (Lost 10-41)

Week 16 (12/22 through 12/26) Houston Texans +3 (Won 19-14)

Week 15 (12/15 through 12/19) Jacksonville Jaguars +4 (Won 40-34)

Week 14 (12/8 through 12/12) Cleveland Browns +5.5 (Lost 23-10)

Week 13 (12/1 through 12/5) Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 (Won 27-24)

Week 12 (11/24 through 11/28) Pittsburgh Steelers +2 (Won 24-17)

Week 11 (11/17 through 11/21) Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (Lost 30-37)

Week 10 (11/10 through 11/14) Denver Broncos +2.5 (Lost 10-17)

Week 9 (11/3 through 11/7) New Orleans Saints +2.5 (Lost 13-27)

Week 8 (10/27 through 10/31) Carolina Panthers +4 (Won 34-37)

Week 7 (10/20 through 10/24) Washingon Commanders +4.5. (Won 23-21)

Week 6 (10/13 through 10/17): Atlanta Falcons +4.5. The Niners have multiple key injuries on the sides of the ball and they’ll be faced with the tall task of playing an early game after traveling from the west coast to the east coast. (Won straight up 28-14)

Week 5 (10/6 through 10/10): Cleveland Browns +2. This point spread was created thinking that the Browns would be without multiple key players on defense. As it turns out, two if not three of them are likely to play in Week 5. It’s also a plus draw for the Browns running game and Amari Cooper has a plus draw against a weak cornerback as well. (Pushed 30-28)

Week 4 Passed.

Week 3 (9/22 through 9/26): New England Patriots +3. The Ravens are banged up on both sides of the ball. Despite the exciting game we witnessed last week against the Dolphins, Baltimore isn’t really a good team right now. Bill Belichick will neutralize one of Baltimore’s two main weapons and they won’t be able to produce. On offense, the Pats are likely to pass the ball a lot. Baltimore’s secondary was exposed badly last week and you better believe New England’s coaching staff is going to take advantage of it. I’m predicting the Patriots win in an ugly/boring game. (Lost 37-26)

Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (Won 24-0). Rough spot for the Colts with multiple injuries to key positions. Michael Pittman will sit with a quad issue and Alec Pierce will sit as well. DeForest Buckner and Kenny Moore are banged up too. More importantly, the Jaguars have owned the Colts in Florida. Unbelievably, the Jags have beaten the Colts six straight times at home. Indy hasn’t won on the Jags home field since 2014. I’m not a trends guy, but I’m not about to fade that action!

Week 1 (9/8 through 9/12): New York Giants +5.5. (Won straight up 21-20) New coach, upgraded offensive line, and a healthy Saquon Barkley. The situation has changed for the better in New York and not so much for Tennessee. The G-Men have a shot of winning this game straight up.

Blindly Betting Underdogs Does Not Work!

Having been in the sports betting industry since the late 1990s, you wouldn’t believe some of the conversations I’ve had with people. A common misconception is that people think they’re getting extra value by betting on an underdog. This is a failed assumption! Keep in mind that no two teams are equal. There’s almost always some sort of margin in talent, coaching, athleticism, chemistry, etc., which is why the point spread is in play in the first place.

It could be said that a point spread is an equalizer. It creates an imaginary even environment between two teams that aren’t really even at all. Each game needs to be viewed as an individual occurrence. I could write a lengthy book about all the variables that go into handicapping an NFL game, so I can’t explain it all here, but in a nutshell, some underdogs offer way more value than others. Oftentimes, the most valuable variable has to do with public perception. The bookies use psychology when making lines. They know who most bettors are going to wager on before they even hit the window. With that said, we use our expertise to sort out the value plays from the junk and post the dog with the highest likelihood of winning each week.

How Often Do Underdogs Win in the NFL?

Underdogs have covered the spread at a rate of 52% from 2006 through 2021. These stats support the notion that if you bet on every underdog, you will break even over the long term, as football betting odds are generally -110 at most sportsbooks. If you bet on games at -110 odds, your break-even point is 52.38%. It should be noted that there will be variance from year to year, but the long-term proves to be a break-even proposition. There’s no joy in running 20 steps forward today and then running 20 steps backward tomorrow, only to find yourself in the same position!

For those wondering about the value of HOME underdogs, as tasty as it sounds, it’s a losing proposition. Those bets only hit at a clip of 48.62%, which, needless to say, would have put you in the poorhouse and have your bookie driving the latest model Cadillac! Note: Road underdogs covered 53.72% from 2006-2021, but that’d be one heck of a grind betting on games for 15 years, and there’s no guarantee that those figures will continue to provide a minuscule profit.