NFL Underdog of the Week Pick

Each week of the NFL season, we’ll post what we believe to be the best underdog bet on the board. Our goal is to have this recommended bet posted by Friday night each week, but it’s always good to check back Sunday morning in case we run into late-breaking news or have an additional play.

The weekly prediction will usually be against the spread but may be a money line bet if the situation warrants. We’ll always post a short analysis to support our pick as well! Always beware of any website or sports service that doesn’t give reasons why they’re making a play. Lots of coin flippers out there!

 

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Super Bowl LVIII (2/11) I like the Niners, so don’t have an underdog bet this week. Cheers to a very profitable season!

Conference Championships (1/28) I don’t like either underdog this weekend, so I am passing.

AFC/NFC Divisional Playoffs (1/20 through 1/21) Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (+100)(Won 27-24)

Wild Card Weekend (1/13 through 1/15) I like three underdogs equally in the first round of the playoffs, so I will be posting them all here: Rams +3 (Won 23-24), Buccaneers +3 (Won straight up 32-9) and Texans +2 (Blowout winner 45-14)

Week 18 Dog Prediction (1/6 through 1/7) Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (Lost 20-30)

Week 17 Underdog of the Week: (12/28 through 12/31) Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (Lost 9-16)

Week 16 Barking Dog: (12/21 through 12/25) New England Patriots +7 (Won straight up 26-23)

Week 15 NFL Underdog of the Week Prediction: (12/14 through 12/18) Chicago Bears +2.5. (Lost 17-20)

Week 14 Bet: (12/7 through 12/11) Chicago Bears +3 (Won straight up 28-13)

Week 13 Dog of the Week: (11/30 through 12/4) Green Bay Packers +6 (Won straight up 27-19)

Week 12 Underdog of the Week Play: (11/23 through 11/27) Cleveland Browns +3 (Bought a half point at -135)(Lost 12-29) The Browns never even got off the bus and PJ Walker should donate his salary to charity; What a worthless QB!) The Denver Broncos have been winning games by the skin of their teeth and with much luck involved. This run ends in Week 12 when they face a Cleveland Browns run the ball down Denver’s porous defensive line. On defense, they’ll have Russell Wilson running for his life as Denver’s OL is very weak. Wilson doesn’t like to get hit. He’s going to fold (multiple times) like a cheap tent Sunday. Wrong team favored! I recommend sprinkling in 10-25% of your wager on the moneyline as well!

Week 11 NFL Underdog Prediction of the Week (11/16 through 11/20) Chicago Bears +8 (Won 26-31). Fields is back, he’s had good success vs. this Lions defensive scheme, a lot of Chicago defensive players are healthy and it’s a division game. I’ll be a tough click for you to make, but it’s the right side.

Week 10 Barking Dog (11/9 through 11/13) Arizona Cardinals +2.5 (Won 25-23). Every week I watch the Atlanta Falcons and all their nice shiny pieces struggle to put it together. This team has excellent parts, but the steering wheel (HC Arthur Smith) leads the team down the wrong road each week. Disclaimer: If he pulls his head out of his rear end and gives Bijan Robinson 25 touches I’ll be eating crow. I don’t think it’s going to happen though. The game is simply too big for Smith to wrap his head around.

Week 9 Underdog Selection: (11/2 through 11/6) Carolina Panthers +2 (Lost 13-27). The Colts pass defense is putrid. Bryce Young is going to have a career day on Sunday!

Week 8’s Best Underdog Play: (10/26 through 10/30) New York Giants +3. (Pushed. Daboll is an absolute moron, blowing a lead with crap play calling with under a minute left.) This may be a very hard click for you to make, but it has legs. The Giants bring pressure at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The Jets offensive line is absolutely depleted and they have a QB in Wilson that crumbles under pressure. JUST DO IT!

Week 7 Underdog Play of the Week: (10/19 through 10/23) Atlanta Falcons +3 (Won 16-13). T.B. offense looks like dog turd, they won’t be able to stop Atlanta’s run game and Mayfield is going to struggle to pass against a good set of defensive backs. Mayfield played decent ball in the beginning of the season, but has since reverted back to his old ways where he tries to throw the ball on the run. He’s simply not athletic enough to pull that off. Rachaad White has no burst either. This offense stinks.

Week 6’s Barking Dog: (10/12 through 10/16) Chicago Bears +3 (Lost 13-19. Fields went down and we had numerous chances to cover but Bagent didn’t have what it takes to get it done). The Vikings have come unraveled. One man doesn’t make a team, but losing Justin Jefferson is really going to hurt. There’s rumors that Kirk Cousins is going to be traded and the team may be looking to tank for a top draft pick, as the upcoming draft class features some great quarterbacks. This news can’t be good for team morale. The Bears are playing much better football. I like them to win straight up Sunday.

Week 5’s Best Bet: (10/5 through 10/9) New Orleans Saints +1.5 (Won 34-0) The Patriots defense are missing a TON of key players. The Pats offense is dysfunctional and stagnant as well. Wrong team favored!

Week 4 Dog of the Week: (9/28 through 10/2) Houston Texans +3 (Won 30-6). I think Pittsburgh stinks. They’re vulnerable to the run with Cam Heyward out and Nico Collins should have a field day against Levi Wallace, who is oftentimes not even in the picture when opposing receivers catch the ball. The Texans went into Jacksonville and smashed the Jags. I don’t think this is a fluke. The Houston offensive line is banged up as heck and they’re still competing. I think they win this game straight up and am even using them in survivor pools!

Week 3 Underdog Pick: 9/21 through 9/25) Washington Commanders +5.5 (lost 3-27). There’s a few things that favor the Commanders to possibly win this game straight up Sunday: The weather is supposed to be crappy. This increases the likelihood that the final score margin will be close. It’s possible that both teams struggle to pass the ball. If it comes down to a defense vs. defense and run vs. run, Washington can win both categories. Brian Robinson Jr. looked incredible this season and the Bills don’t stop the run well. The Commanders can also bring suffocating pressure on the QB. Josh Allen becomes very mistake prone when he gets heavy pressure. He’s a great player, but turns the ball over a ton. Lastly, A line of +5.5 covers two key numbers (common final score margins – 3 and 4 in this case.)

Week 2 Underdog Play: (9/14 through 9/18) Tennessee Titans +2.5 (Winner! 27-24). The Chargers won’t be able to stop the run and Tennessee has the better defense. The Bolts MLB is out and so is his backup. Austin Ekeler will miss and Kelly doesn’t have the same receiving prowess. He’s likely to get stuffed on his rushing attempts as Mike Vrabel really focuses on shutting the other teams run game down. Joey Bosa has a hamstring issue and might not play. I am a bit concerned with Tennessee’s secondary and the Chargers could have some chunk yardage plays, but with no effective run game and a defense that got gouged last week, Tennessee is likely to grind out a victory here. Lastly, it nearly takes an act of God to knock an NFL game off of a +3 spread, and it’s happened here as the bookies are currently listing the Titans at +2.5 (As of Saturday evening). This isn’t our NFL prop bets page, but I’m also betting Derrick Henry to go OVER on rushing yards. I see one of those massive games coming where he gets fed the ball 22-25 times and goes for over 150 yards. LAC’s run defense is that bad.

Week 1 Dog: (9/7 through 9/11) Cleveland Browns +2 (Won 24-3)

Super Bowl 57 (2/12): Kevin West likes the Eagles to win, so no underdog is applicable.

Championship Weekend (1/29) San Francisco 49ers +2.5

Divisional Playoffs: (1/21 through 1/22) I’m not confident in any of the underdogs this weekend so passing.

Wildcard Weekend: (1/14 through 1/16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (Lost 31-14)

Week 18: (1/7 through 1/8) Houston Texans +2.5 (Won 32-31)

Week 17 (12/29 through 1/2) Chicago Bears +6 (Lost 10-41)

Week 16 (12/22 through 12/26) Houston Texans +3 (Won 19-14)

Week 15 (12/15 through 12/19) Jacksonville Jaguars +4 (Won 40-34)

Week 14 (12/8 through 12/12) Cleveland Browns +5.5 (Lost 23-10)

Week 13 (12/1 through 12/5) Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 (Won 27-24)

Week 12 (11/24 through 11/28) Pittsburgh Steelers +2 (Won 24-17)

Week 11 (11/17 through 11/21) Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (Lost 30-37)

Week 10 (11/10 through 11/14) Denver Broncos +2.5 (Lost 10-17)

Week 9 (11/3 through 11/7) New Orleans Saints +2.5 (Lost 13-27)

Week 8 (10/27 through 10/31) Carolina Panthers +4 (Won 34-37)

Week 7 (10/20 through 10/24) Washingon Commanders +4.5. (Won 23-21)

Week 6 (10/13 through 10/17): Atlanta Falcons +4.5. The Niners have multiple key injuries on the sides of the ball and they’ll be faced with the tall task of playing an early game after traveling from the west coast to the east coast. (Won straight up 28-14)

Week 5 (10/6 through 10/10): Cleveland Browns +2. This point spread was created thinking that the Browns would be without multiple key players on defense. As it turns out, two if not three of them are likely to play in Week 5. It’s also a plus draw for the Browns running game and Amari Cooper has a plus draw against a weak cornerback as well. (Pushed 30-28)

Week 4 Passed.

Week 3 (9/22 through 9/26): New England Patriots +3. The Ravens are banged up on both sides of the ball. Despite the exciting game we witnessed last week against the Dolphins, Baltimore isn’t really a good team right now. Bill Belichick will neutralize one of Baltimore’s two main weapons and they won’t be able to produce. On offense, the Pats are likely to pass the ball a lot. Baltimore’s secondary was exposed badly last week and you better believe New England’s coaching staff is going to take advantage of it. I’m predicting the Patriots win in an ugly/boring game. (Lost 37-26)

Week 2 (9/15 through 9/19): Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (Won 24-0). Rough spot for the Colts with multiple injuries to key positions. Michael Pittman will sit with a quad issue and Alec Pierce will sit as well. DeForest Buckner and Kenny Moore are banged up too. More importantly, the Jaguars have owned the Colts in Florida. Unbelievably, the Jags have beaten the Colts six straight times at home. Indy hasn’t won on the Jags home field since 2014. I’m not a trends guy, but I’m not about to fade that action!

Week 1 (9/8 through 9/12): New York Giants +5.5. (Won straight up 21-20) New coach, upgraded offensive line, and a healthy Saquon Barkley. The situation has changed for the better in New York and not so much for Tennessee. The G-Men have a shot of winning this game straight up.

Blindly Betting Underdogs Does Not Work!

Having been in the sports betting industry since the late 1990s, you wouldn’t believe some of the conversations I’ve had with people. A common misconception is that people think they’re getting extra value by betting on an underdog. This is a failed assumption! Keep in mind that no two teams are equal. There’s almost always some sort of margin in talent, coaching, athleticism, chemistry, etc., which is why the point spread is in play in the first place.

It could be said that a point spread is an equalizer. It creates an imaginary even environment between two teams that aren’t really even at all. Each game needs to be viewed as an individual occurrence. I could write a lengthy book about all the variables that go into handicapping an NFL game, so I can’t explain it all here, but in a nutshell, some underdogs offer way more value than others. Oftentimes, the most valuable variable has to do with public perception. The bookies use psychology when making lines. They know who most bettors are going to wager on before they even hit the window. With that said, we use our expertise to sort out the value plays from the junk and post the dog with the highest likelihood of winning each week.

How Often Do Underdogs Win in the NFL?

Underdogs have covered the spread at a rate of 52% from 2006 through 2021. These stats support the notion that if you bet on every underdog, you will break even over the long term, as football betting odds are generally -110 at most sportsbooks. If you bet on games at -110 odds, your break-even point is 52.38%. It should be noted that there will be variance from year to year, but the long-term proves to be a break-even proposition. There’s no joy in running 20 steps forward today and then running 20 steps backward tomorrow, only to find yourself in the same position!

For those wondering about the value of HOME underdogs, as tasty as it sounds, it’s a losing proposition. Those bets only hit at a clip of 48.62%, which, needless to say, would have put you in the poorhouse and have your bookie driving the latest model Cadillac! Note: Road underdogs covered 53.72% from 2006-2021, but that’d be one heck of a grind betting on games for 15 years, and there’s no guarantee that those figures will continue to provide a minuscule profit.