NFL Week 7 Picks: Raiders vs. Packers

by | Oct 17, 2019 | nfl

Oakland Raiders (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)

NFL Week 7

Date and Time: Sunday, October 20 at 1pm ET

Where: Lambeau Field

TV: CBS

Point Spread: OAK +5.5/GB -5.5 (Bovada)

Over/Under Total: 47

As we get closer to the halfway point of this NFL season, there are a few teams that have firmly put themselves in playoff position. Green Bay is fresh off a nail-biting win on Monday Night Football, and while that W was a little short on style, their 5-1 record after six means they can go .500 from here on out and still probably make the postseason. The Packers will look to keep the good times rolling against the Raiders who visit Lambeau fresh off a bye after a Week 5 game in London. Oakland has gained some traction in recent weeks, winning two straight against Indy and Chicago and sit only one back of Kansas City in the AFC West. These teams don’t regularly square off with the last meeting coming during the 2015 season.

On the Rise?

Oakland has been something of a mess since Jon Gruden took over last season, but things have been looking up lately on the field. Derek Carr isn’t being asked to do too much, and a more conservative passing approach has him completing 73% of his passes. Green Bay ranks 13th against the pass but have allowed big games to Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay in consecutive weeks. Oakland has turned run-heavy behind rookie Josh Jacobs (4.9 ypc, 4TD), and they sit inside the top-10 in 3rd down conversions and time of possession as a result. The offensive line has allowed only eight sacks through five and keeping Preston and Za’Darius Smith (13 combined sacks) off of Carr is job one come Sunday. There is enough playmaking with TE Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams in the passing game to suggest that Oakland will get some points on the board. With Green Bay a bit stagnant on offense, this 5.5-point line looks a bit bigger if the Raiders can move the ball like Detroit did last week.

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Rodgers Regression

Through six games, Aaron Rodgers is on pace for a career-low 22 touchdowns, and his 92.8 QB rating would tie his worst rate as a starter. Rodgers has clearly missed Davante Adams, who still leads the team in catches and yards despite missing the last two games. Adams may miss again as he nurses a turf toe injury, and Geronimo Allison could also be out after entering the concussion protocol and picking up a chest injury on Monday. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have done well with a larger workload, and the duo has accounted for ten total touchdowns, with Jones emerging as the second leading receiver without Adams. There has been little else however, with Jimmy Graham and Marques Valdez-Scantling lacking consistency, and Green Bay has fallen to 17th in yards and 14th in points at 23.7 per game. It just looks like Rodgers isn’t good enough to carry the whole load, and it has notably affected the team on third down with Green Bay converting just 31% of the time. Look for ARod to be a bit better this weekend with Oakland allowing a 102 QBR to opponents in 2019, but it will be hard to expect a real big game at this point.

Plus and Minus

Despite some rather pedestrian overall defensive numbers, Oakland is good against the run, ranking 10th overall and they give up just 3.7 yards per carry. If they put Green Bay into consistent third-and-long scenarios, it should be a huge benefit, and their pass-rush could get home against a Packers line that isn’t great in protecting Rodgers. If they don’t do well on first and second down, look for Green Bay to move free and easy against an Oakland squad allowing 46% third-down conversions, which ranks in the bottom ten of the league. The Packers have been excellent with 18 sacks to this point, but they can be neutralized by running teams as GB ranks 23rd against the run and allows nearly five yards per carry. Whichever team can push their strength against the other weakness is going to gain control in this game.

Trend Watch

Oakland is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games following a bye week but will look to buck a 1-4 ATS trend in the last five road games. Green Bay took the ATS loss last week and has lost five of the last six against the spread immediately following an ATS loss. The under is 5-1 in the last six for Green Bay on Sunday following a Monday Night game and also 5-1 when the Pack takes on an opponent with a winning record. Normally a very strong public betting favorite, Green Bay, is getting just 52% of the early action at -5.5, and that is after Oakland was a trendy pick after opening at +7. That 5.5-point line is most common, but DraftKings has it a full point higher with GB (-6.5).

Green Bay - Detroit was a strangle game to be sure, but we correctly picked that Green Bay was going to come up short of covering the four, and this game feels very similar. Oakland has had extra time to prep with Green Bay on a short week and dealing with key injuries. The Raiders can run the ball and play keep-away from Rodgers, and there are enough cracks in the Packer defense to suggest Oakland gets to the 21-24 point range. I think Green Bay moves to 6-1, but a 27-23 final makes the Raiders the right play.

Ted’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Oakland Raiders +5.5. Make the Raidas a +25.5 underdog or the Cheeseheads a +14.5 underdog by placing either into a massive 20 point NFL football teaser at Wagerweb!

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