O/U Pick: Panthers vs. Saints

by | Nov 19, 2019 | nfl

Carolina Panthers (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS)

NFL Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday November 24th, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, L.A.

TV: CBS

Point Spread: CAR +9.5/NO -9.5 (BetNow - 50% REAL CASH bonus up to $1000!)

Over/Under Total: 47

Remember when Carolina Panthers fans believed they had found their new franchise quarterback and Cam Newton was quickly becoming an afterthought? It may seem like a distant memory, but that was the sentiment following Kyle Allen’s first three starts that resulted in wins over Houston, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay. Since then, everything has gone downhill, with the Panthers losing three of their last four games and Allen becoming the centerpiece of the issues. Things hit a fever pitch last week when the Panthers were blown out by the struggling Falcons 29-3. Despite being 3.5 point favorites, Allen tossed four interceptions as the Panthers were held without a touchdown for the first time this season. As the Panthers attempt to turn things back around, the competition picks up this week with a road trip to New Orleans.

Saints looking to lockdown the NFC South

The Saints had a week ten stumble against the Falcons who scored an unthinkable upset. The Falcons scored another dominant win over the Panthers last week that may help ease the thoughts of that defeat. New Orleans bounced back last week with a huge offensive performance over the Buccaneers, and the Saints defense forced 4 Jameis Winston turnovers, including a pick-six to seal the deal. Quarterback Drew Brees looked sharp, hitting 28 of 35 passing for 228 yards with three touchdowns and WR Michael Thomas delivered in one of his most advantageous match-ups of the season for eight catches for 114 yards with a touchdown. With some rebuild confidence, the Saints could all be lockdown the NFC South with a victory over the Panthers this Sunday. The Saints currently hold a three-game advantage over the Panthers and will meet again in week 17 following this Sunday’s game in New Orleans. Therefore if the Saints pull out the victory, it would create a near 99% probability that the Saints win the division.

Saints vs. Panthers match-up breakdown

Despite the Panthers recent struggles, this is still an intriguing match-up. The Saints are extremely tough upfront on the defensive side of the football ranking 3rd against the run yielding just 83 yards per game. This is a tough spot for all-purpose leader running back Christian McCaffrey between the tackles. The Panthers will likely use McCaffrey in the passing game in this match-up similar to last year’s week 15 match-up when the Panthers targeted their star back 11 times out of the backfield. McCaffrey produced eight catches for 67 yards in that game, and I imagine his involvement will be a point of focus again this week.

For quarterback Kyle Allen, the match-up is slightly more difficult this week against the Saints defense. I’m not stating Allen will play worse (that would be hard to do), but the Saints are obviously better all-around defensively as compared to Atlanta. For Allen, he simply has to play better, and I believe it is a confidence issue. Allen has been hesitant with his throws and seems uncomfortable in the pocket. All of these signs appeared in the 51-13 blowout loss to San Francisco. Despite failing to throw an interception in the first three straights, Allen tossed three picks in the loss to the 49ers and has not been the same quarterback since

For the Saints offense, this will be another decent challenge facing a Panthers defense that matches up pretty well. The Panthers have transformed into a run funnel defense, which will allow Saints running back Alvin Kamara to break out of his recent slump. However, the Saints are most effective through the air. Carolina does a good job of disguising coverages and limiting big plays on the defensive side of the football. In recent weeks, they have simply been on the field too often. However, with the heat of missing the postseason and Ron Rivera’s job on the line, I’m expecting a renewed effort from the Carolina defense this week as they find a way to keep this game competitive.

Carolina vs. New Orleans betting trends

The Saints have produced excellent results throughout 2019 going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, which includes a 6-1 mark ATS against NFC opponents. Carolina is trending at the .500 mark on the season despite failing to cover in three of their last four games. The Panthers have hit the “over” in four of their previous six games. Additionally, they’ve also hit the “over” in their last five trips to New Orleans. New Orleans is also trending towards the “over” which includes a distinct trend of hitting the “over” in 8 of the last ten meetings against the Panthers.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am going to pivot against the trends in this game and take the under 47. The Panthers are not playing good football on offense. I think they will have more success this week while limiting the turnovers. However, I still believe they will have trouble finding the endzone. As long as the Saints do not explode on offense, I think the under 47 is a strong play! Bet this game and ALL your point spreads, money lines and totals at reduced odds -105 at BetAnySports! Making the switch to discount odds will save you a freakin’ ton over the years! ($$$$Thousands$$$$)