Steelers vs. Bengals Pick 11/24/19

by | Nov 19, 2019 | nfl

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-10 SU, 4-6 ATS)

NFL Week 12

Date/Time: Sunday November 24th, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Paul Brown Stadium Cincinnati, O.H.


Point Spread: PIT -7/CIN +7 (5Dimes - 19 point teasers, pleasers and progressive parlays!)

Over/Under Total: 39

The Pittsburgh Steelers were stonewalled by the Cleveland Browns last Thursday snapping a four-game winning streak. The Steelers horrible offensive performance was overshadowed by QB Mason Rudolph and Browns DE Myles Garrett’s fight in the closing minutes of the game. Before the incident, the Steelers had lost two wide receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson) to concussion injuries, and Rudolph had just posted one of his worst performances as a professional hitting only 23 of 44 passing for one score and four interceptions. The loss to the Browns was costly for the Steelers, who were trying to make a late charge at a playoff run. Technically, Pittsburgh is still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt but will need some help down the stretch. Luckily, the Steelers have an extremely favorable match-up this weekend against the worst team in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.

Pittsburgh defense eyes opportunistic match-up at Cincinnati

Despite the Steelers’ offensive troubles last week, Pittsburgh’s defense continues to play well each week. Pittsburgh’s defense is among the NFL leaders in pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks and ranks 4th in sacks (34). DE T.J Watt has emerged as one of the NFL’s best on the edge with 10.5 sacks on the season, and the entire Steelers defense is known for wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. This factor alone is a nightmarish setup for Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley who appears to be in over his head at the position.

Former starter Andy Dalton was benched following the bye week in favor of rookie Ryan Finley. However, the move to the rookie quarterback has been tough to watch. In 2 games as a starter, Finley is completing just 47% passing for 282 yards combined with one touchdown and two picks. Despite 31 pass attempts in last week’s loss to Oakland, Finley hit only 13 targets for 115 yards with an interception and consistently held onto the football too long allowing five sacks on the afternoon. In my opinion, Finley is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and the Bengals should be targeting the likes of Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa in this year’s draft. Though that is a different topic for a different time, rest assured this Pittsburgh defense has an incredible match-up opportunity on Sunday.

Trends support the under 39

With two struggling offenses meeting in Cincinnati, this game has tremendous value towards the “under” despite a rather low total of just 39 points. The Bengals have failed to score more than 17 points in 5 straight games and now have one of their toughest match-ups of the season. WR Auden Tate exited last week’s loss to Oakland with a concussion and is currently in the league’s protocol. Not to mention, AJ Green appears as he will be out yet again. Green suffered a setback in his road to recovery and is dealing with swelling in his foot, which is downgrading the probability of seeing him on the field. Finley needs all the help he can get, but there is a good possibility that both Tate and Green will be sidelined in week 11.

The Steelers are also dealing with injuries and concerns at the skill positions. Along with the concussions for Smith-Schuster and Johnson, running back James Conner also exited last week’s loss to the Browns after re-injuring his shoulder. The good news is that Smith-Schuster and Johnson may have a decent shot at playing this week due to the extra days they have to get clearance from last Thursday’s loss. Either way, Pittsburgh still has to find some answers on offense as they have not looked good in recent outings. Rudolph is decent but far from reliable in the passing game. The best way to attack the Bengals defense is on the ground, but that could be problematic if Conner sits. Backup Jaylen Samuels is a better pass-catching back than he is between the tackles meaning Pittsburgh could have challenges moving the football. Coach Mike Tomlin will surely implement a ground attack, especially following Rudolph’s four turnover outing last week. As a result, the game pace and script will likely be focused around the run. Combine that factor with both offense’s struggles, and you have a recipe for another low producing scoring total.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati betting trends

The Steelers have trended around the .500 mark ATS throughout the season and currently stand at 5-4-1 ATS. For the Bengals, they remain the only winless team in the NFL and are 4-6 ATS on the season. The Bengals have failed to cover in 5 of their last seven games and are just 1-9 ATS in their previous ten games at home. In H2H meetings, the Steelers have won 9 straight games over their AFC North rival. Pertaining to the total, the Steelers are also trending heavily towards the “under” mark each week. Pittsburgh has hit the “under” in four of their last five games overall and has hit the “under” in nine of their previous ten road trips.

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