Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 20, 2026
4:25 PM ET, State Farm Stadium
Seattle is a 5.5-point road favorite over Arizona with a total of 41.5. My play is the Cardinals getting the points.
The quarterback situation is the biggest factor here. Sam Darnold is out with a glute injury, which means Drew Lock takes over as Seattle’s starting quarterback. Lock is a legitimate NFL backup — he’s played meaningful snaps in his career and can execute a game plan — but he’s a significant downgrade from Darnold. That’s the exact situation where the market often prices in a favorite too heavily, and this line reflects Seattle’s overall program strength rather than accounting for the quarterback change.
Now consider Arizona’s Week 1 performance. The Cardinals just went into Los Angeles and beat the Chargers 26-14. That was a road win against a Chargers team that had playoff aspirations, and Arizona produced 393 yards on 71 offensive plays with 42.9% third-down conversions and 40% red-zone efficiency. Those aren’t fluky numbers — that’s a functioning offense executing at a high level.
Jacoby Brissett has real weapons around him. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a legitimate WR1, Trey McBride is an All-Pro tight end who consistently produces at a high level, and Jeremiyah Love (the third overall pick in the 2026 draft) is a rookie running back with explosive playmaker potential. Against a Seattle defense that gave up 10 straight points to New England before rallying with turnovers in Week 1, the Cardinals should be able to move the ball.
The Seahawks’ offense with Drew Lock will be limited. Lock has been a serviceable backup throughout his career, but he doesn’t push the ball downfield the way Darnold does, and his mobility isn’t at Darnold’s level either. Against a Cardinals defensive front that has real talent, Lock will face pressure and struggle to sustain drives. That translates directly to Seattle scoring in the 17-21 range rather than the 24+ they’d typically produce with a healthy Darnold.
Even the head-to-head ATS trend for Seattle (8-2 in last 10 meetings) was built with Darnold as the QB. Take away Darnold and add Lock, and that trend doesn’t necessarily translate. The Cardinals are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, but that trend was built during a period when Arizona was still rebuilding. This 2026 Cardinals team has real talent — Jeremiyah Love was a top-3 draft pick, they upgraded multiple positions in the offseason, and their Week 1 win showed they’re a much better team than the 2025 version.
Home field advantage at State Farm Stadium matters too. It’s a fast track, indoor environment, and Arizona has historically been tough at home. Combined with the Cardinals’ motivation to prove their Week 1 win wasn’t a fluke, this is exactly the type of spot where an underdog covers the spread even if they lose the game.
Realistic outcomes: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17 (3-point margin, Cardinals cover +5.5); Cardinals 21, Seahawks 17 (Cardinals win outright); Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20 (4-point margin, Cardinals cover); or Seahawks 24, Cardinals 17 (7-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Arizona, and given Drew Lock’s start, that’s the more likely outcome distribution.
The Pick: Arizona Cardinals +5.5
