Oakland Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date/Time: Sunday, December 10, 2017 at 1:00 P.M. ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS
by Jerbeek, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oak +4/KC -4
Over/Under Total: 47
The Oakland Raiders will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal AFC West battle in Week 14. The Chiefs and Raiders are currently in a 3 way tie with the Los Angeles Chargers. It appears that in order to make the playoffs these teams are going to have to win their division although they are just 1 game behind the Ravens for the last wild card spot so there is a chance that 2 teams out of this group could make the playoffs. Oakland has won 2 of their 3 to forge into a tie for the division lead. Kansas City has lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 games after their surprising start when they beat both Philadelphia and New England. The last 3 losses have come against bottom dwellers as they lost to the New York Giants, the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets in consecutive weeks after a week 9 bye. Included in their 6 losses is a loss to the Raiders in week 7 where the Chiefs held a lead but collapsed at the end and gave up a touchdown with no time remaining to lose 31-30..
Oakland came into the season thinking that they would be carried by their high profile offense. They added Marshawn Lynch to the mix after luring him out of retirement but the signing has not shown great dividends so far although Lynch did first 100 yard rushing game in week 13 against the Giants. For the season, Lynch is averaging 4.0 yards per carry. QB Derek Carr has not found the success he had in 2016 as he has completed 64.4% of his passes for 2,731 yards, 17 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. One of the issues have been the decline of Amari Cooper who only has 499 yards receiving on the season. Cooper is questionable with a concussion. WR Michael Crabtree will be back after serving his suspension for fighting with Aqib Talib in the gold chain neck pulling dispute. The Raiders The Oakland offense has been slightly above average as they have gained 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 5.6 but they are only averaging 20.7 points against teams that give up 22.9 points.
The Chiefs offense started the season looking like one of the best offenses in the NFL and QB Alex Smith was being discussed as having a MVP type season. Oh how the times have changed as now Chiefs fans are clamoring for the backup, Rookie Patrick Mahomes to take over. However, Smith snapped out of his funk in week 13 and was actually the leading fantasy QB on the week as he hooked up with Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill for 2 touchdowns each and threw for a total of 362 yards. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt was also having a great start to the season but has shown some regression in recent weeks. In the 5 game winning streak at the start of the season the Chiefs averaged 32.8 points but since then have only averaged 19.9 points. The problems were so bad that Head Coach Andy Reid gave up play calling duties in week 13 and let his offensive coordinator call the plays. The plan seemed to work as the Chiefs offense seemed to focus more on downfield throws and actually put up 31 points in the loss.
Oaklands defense has been one of the worst in the league as far as passing defense. They have given up 7.3 yards per pass attempt against teams that average 6.4 yards and they have given up 5.8 yards per play against teams that average 5.4 yards per play. As for the scoreboard they have given up an average of 23.2 points per game to teams that average 21.1. The Raiders defense seems to have improved a bit the past 2 games but it may be a mirage since they were playing against offensive challenged teams in the Broncos and Giants.
The Chiefs defense really struggled in week 13 as they made Josh McCown look like Joe Montana as the Jets put up 38 points with 331 yards passing and 157 yards rushing. For the season the Chiefs have allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt against teams that average 6.7 yards per attempt.
Jerbeeks Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I look for this game to be a shootout as both teams have struggled on offense. I think the Chiefs will win in a close game and predict a score of 31-27. My recommendation is to play the over the total of 47 on this game. – If you went to the store and on the shelf was the exact same product, one for $110 and one for $105 which would you buy? The cheaper one of course! So why would you pay -110 odds on your bets instead of -105? Start betting at discounted odds today at 5Dimes!
