Packers vs. NY Giants Spread Bet for MNF
Green Bay Packers (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. New York Giants (4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, December 11, 8:15 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Point Spread: GB -6.5 /NYG +6.5
Moneyline: Pack -300/GMen +250
Over/Under Total: 37
The Green Bay Packers are riding high after beating the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs last Sunday Night. This week, they get a second consecutive prime time slot when they visit the Giants at MetLife Stadium. BOVADA.LV has made the Packers 6.5-point favorites and set a low game total at 37. Let’s count on Green Bay to come back to earth and take the points with the Giants. Here are three reasons.
Which Is The Real Jordan Love?
Packers QB Jordan Love looked like someone should be preparing his bust in Canton last week against KC, and that was after an equally impressive performance against the Lions on Thanksgiving day. But this is the same guy who couldn’t lead his team to 20 points against the Raiders and Vikings a couple of months ago. I get it. He is improving, but he is completing just 61% of his passes and threw ten picks in his first 12 games. Should we assume the last two games means he has it all figured out, or should we expect another dud? I don’t think all of a sudden we can say Love has climbed into the upper echelon of QBs, but it is more likely a fall to earth is coming. The Packers have protected Love very well the last three weeks, giving him extra time to survey the field. This has led to better decisions, and 0 interceptions in those games. It has also helped that Love has finally developed some chemistry with Green Bay’s best receiver, Christian Watson, who has four touchdowns in the last three contests, but now Watson may be out with an injury.
The Giant defense isn’t going to be confused with the ’85 Bears, but they have played better lately after a horrendous start. They have nine takeaways and six sacks in their two outings (both wins) prior to their bye. But I think the advantage the Giants have this week is DC Wink Martindale. Martindale is a blitzing guru who will come at Love from all angles. Love has been a little slow to process blitzes this season, and Martindale will look to exploit that weakness. I don’t think we get another All-Pro performance from Love and the Packers offense this week. Teams and player don’t just flip a switch and go from mediocre to great, so look for Love and the Packers to look more like the team they were in the first ten weeks of the season than the team they were in the last 2.
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New York Will Be Able To Run
Tommy DeVito is 1 of many guys masquerading as NFL quarterbacks this year. He has looked like a legitimate NFL backup in his last two starts, but fortunately for the G-Men, they will be able to rely on Saquon Barkley this week. Barkley started the season slow and missed some time, but he has been his old, reliable self for the past month. He has averaged over five yards per carry in November and now gets a plus matchup with the Packer defense. I expect a very heavy dose of Barkley in this one and then for the Giants to take some shots downfield. DeVito is completing over 60% of his attempts and has averaged 8.5 yards per attempt in the last two games. Coming out of the bye, I expect DeVito to be ready with a game plan that stresses ball security and easy reads. Still, the Giants will go as far as Barkley can carry them this week, which I think might be a long way.
The Packer defense looked pretty good against the Chiefs and Lions, but the run defense is a big concern. They have allowed 643 rushing yards in their last four games, including against the Chiefs and Chargers, who generally have little interest in calling running plays. The Pack allows 4.5 yards per carry on the season, and the Giants will be dedicated to the run all night, so it should be a big night for Barkley. When Green Bay can force New York into obvious passing situations, it could be bad for DeVito.
Sell High On Green Bay
The Pack are coming off of their two best wins of the season, and even the win three weeks ago against the Chargers was good. But does that justify being 6.5-point road favorites against any NFL team, let alone one that has won their last two games? This spread already moved to Green Bay by two points, and there will be a lot of public money on the Packers to keep the line pushing toward a full touchdown. Green Bay could easily have a major letdown on prime time this Monday Night, and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see the Giants pull off an upset.
Play The Giants
Let’s roll with Tommy DeVito and the G-Men to cover the spread and maybe an upset win on MNF.